Tangled Up In (Royal) Blue

You're An Idiot, Babe

2011-12-02T21:20:00.001-06:00

...it's a a wonder that you still know how to breathe

(From "Idiot Wind," Blood On The Tracks)

I try not to write in anger. But today's news that Fox Sports Kansas City fired Frank White from their TV broadcasts really infuriates me.

For whatever reason, at the same time as the Royals improve on the field, they are doing a terrible job in the public relations department. So far this offseason, they have irritated their fans by cancelling the annual FanFest event and then followed that up by firing possibly the most popular player in Royals history. Sure, it was technically FSKC firing him, but obviously if the Royals wanted him on TV next year, he'd be on TV.

White told 610's Nick Wright that he was fired for being "too negative" about the team. This is a load of horsepucky, and frankly the Royals should be ashamed. First, I have a hard time remembering when White was overly critical of the team. Second, I WANT my color analyst to be negative when it is warranted. You know, I believe the Royals have smart fans. Sure, reading the comments on their Facebook page after a trade sometimes makes me wonder about that, but the fans I know personally and/or interact with on Twitter are not dumb. We know if the team is not playing well, and simply hiring a broadcaster to tell us otherwise is not going to work. It annoys me that the Royals apparently don't think we're smart enough to see through that. Of course, they've had Ryan Lefebvre around for years trying to convince us that Tony Pena Jr. and Yuniesky Betancourt were major league shortstops, so perhaps I should be used to it by now. It doesn't mean I have to like it, though.

Honestly, I don't believe Frank White is a great broadcaster. Obviously, he knows the game. I always wished he would be a little more open to the new stats that are out there, but I'm certainly not surprised that a former player who worked for the Royals wouldn't be very open to sabermetrics. But he was hardly the worst analyst out there.

Beyond that, though, he's Frank White. That name means something in Kansas City. He's from here, he literally helped build Kauffman Stadium, and he was a key part of the glory years. And now the Royals have essentially chased him away. Is there no one at 1 Royal Way who could not see that this move would enrage the vast majority of the fanbase? If I didn't know better, I'd say the Royals were TRYING to antagonize their fans.

The FanFest cancellation was based on the flimsiest of excuses: we can't handle that and the All-Star Game preparations, too. So far, the Royals haven't even bothered giving their side of the story on Frank White. They might not ever do that (which might be their best PR move--anything they say is likely to anger people even more).

Frankly, I expect this kind of PR idiocy from the Chiefs, because they seem to believe they are still the franchise they were in the 1990s, making the playoffs every year and filling Arrowhead. That arrogance can lead to lots of dumb decisions. But the Royals, who have no playoff appearances in 26 long years, and who have even sniffed contention maybe five times in that stretch, should be doing whatever they can to keep their fans happy. And lately, it seems like they have forgotten that.

Trading Soria

2011-11-29T21:00:00.001-06:00

Should the Royals trade Joakim Soria?

It's a question I've actually been pondering for a while. At the end of the 2011 season, I expected Soria to be in the Royals' bullpen come Opening Day 2012. I would have been shocked, frankly, if he were even mentioned as a trade possibility.

That was before Jonathan Papelbon signed with the Phillies for 4 years and $50 million. And then Joe Nathan, one day after turning 37, signed with the Rangers for 2 years and $14.5 million. Suddenly the market for proven closers looks ridiculous. With limited free-agent options remaining, some teams might be very interested in Soria.

The particulars of Soria's contract ($6 million in 2012, club options for 2013 and 2014 at $8 million and $8.75 million, respectively) make him affordable for most teams, and the buyouts on those club options ($750,000 for each option) make him a lower risk. And yes, he struggled last year, but if he has indeed shelved the cutter he was experimenting with, he could easily get back to his All-Star form.

Don't get me wrong, I love Joakim Soria. There's no one I'd rather have on the mound as the Royals try to clinch the division next year (why not dream a little?). But closers can be found easily, a lot easier than a top starting pitcher or a power-hitting corner outfielder. Heck, look at the Royals' history: their best closer ever (Dan Quisenberry) wasn't even drafted. Their second-best closer (Jeff Montgomery) was stolen in a trade with the Reds. And Soria was a Rule 5 draft pick. Almost any failed starting pitcher can be a decent closer. And with the group of young pitchers the Royals had in the bullpen last year, they have options if they move Soria.

The first option would probably be Greg Holland, who was really the Royals' most effective reliever last year. I could easily see him as an effective closer. Also, the Royals added another option today by signing Jonathan Broxton. The 27-year-old had success as a reliever for the Dodgers for six seasons before an injury curtailed his 2011 season. The Royals say they will use him as a setup man for Soria, but he could certainly slide into the closer role if Soria were unavailable.

Given that, I think the Royals should certainly explore trading Soria. They shouldn't trade him just to trade him, but they should definitely listen to any offers. And they shouldn't be afraid to try to fill their rotation needs by trading him.

I know there was a Twitter rumor today about trading Soria to Toronto for Colby Rasmus. It looks like that has been denied by Dayton Moore as I write this, and I'm kind of glad. I'd still like to see Lorenzo Cain get a chance; I think he's better defensively than Rasmus and that is important in Kauffman Stadium.

But if the Royals can trade Soria for a good starting pitcher, they should definitely do it. I would miss him. But I think it would make the team better, and that's the most important consideration.

Stick With Me Baby, Stick With Me Anyhow

2011-11-07T21:01:00.001-06:00

...things should start to get interestin' right about now

(From "Mississippi," Love And Theft)

The Royals are developing a habit of making surprising trades, the kind of trades you don't hear about until they have been completed. That is certainly true of today's trade of Melky Cabrera to San Francisco for left-handed starter Jonathan Sanchez and a minor-leaguer, left-hander Ryan Verdugo. There was certainly speculation about the Royals and Sanchez, but I didn't think any deal would happen this soon, or that it would involve Cabrera.

The more I think about this trade, the better I feel about it. Cabrera was certainly a vital part of the Royals' offense last season, but I think the Royals have upgraded their rotation here, and received a potentially useful bullpen arm for the future. Meanwhile, this apparently means Lorenzo Cain will finally get his chance in Kansas City, which should upgrade the defense.

I think the Royals did a great job of selling high on Cabrera. Melky's 121 OPS+ in 2011 was by far his career high. He did turn 27 during the 2011 season, so it is possible he could have several more good years. On the other hand, if you just looked at his career numbers without knowing his age, you would certainly notice that his 2011 season was unusual. I would have expected a couple more nice years from Cabrera, but probably not as good as he was this year.

Meanwhile, Sanchez will turn 29 in less than two weeks. He has been in the majors for six seasons and was a member of the Giants' rotation when they won the World Series in 2010. Coincidentally, 2010 was his best season, although he was decent in 2009. The problem with Sanchez has always been control; for his career, he averages 4.8 walks per 9 innings pitched. For comparison's sake, Danny Duffy averaged 4.4 walks per 9 IP in 2011, and he was by far the wildest starter on the team. The good news about Sanchez is that he gets lots of strikeouts: he averages 9.4 per 9 IP for his career. So the strikeout to walk ratio is almost 2:1, which is pretty good.

In my mind, any loss the Royals suffer on offense should be offset by Cain's superior defense, unless Cain is just a total disaster at the plate. Meanwhile, Sanchez should slide nicely into the 2 or 3 spot of the Royals' rotation, depending on other moves before Opening Day. He is almost certainly an upgrade over Jeff Francis, and probably over Bruce Chen (I do fear this is the end of Chen's time as a Royal; re-signing him would give the Royals three lefties with Mike Montgomery also knocking on the door).

The best part to me is that the Royals were able to upgrade their rotation and defense without parting with any prospects. So they still have the ability to make a major trade for pitching if they so choose. On the downside, Sanchez can be a free agent after the 2012 season, so it is possible he will be a Royal for only one year. But overall, I like this deal and I like the Royals' aggressiveness in making it.

Dave Eiland, Difference Maker?

2011-10-26T21:45:00.000-05:00

I think we all understand this offseason is a crossroads of sorts for the Royals. The right personnel moves can augment the young talent on the roster and put them in position to contend in 2012, while the wrong moves could potentially make us all wait a couple more years.

So the first big move the team made was adding Dave Eiland as pitching coach, replacing the fired Bob McClure.

I liked McClure, but it is amazing to me he lasted as long as he did as the Royals' pitching coach. Six years with one team is a long tenure for any coach, especially a team that lost as often as the Royals did in that time. When you consider that McClure survived not one, but two managerial changes, it's even more surprising. But I suspect the message had gotten stale. The Royals have led the AL in walks allowed two of the past three years. Changing that will be Eiland's biggest challenge.

So, what is Eiland's background? Drafted by the Yankees in the 7th round of the 1987 draft, he made his major league debut the next season at the age of 22. I suppose that could be a useful experience when the Royals' promising young pitchers start reaching the majors.

After bouncing between the majors and the Yankees' farm system for four seasons, Eiland moved on to San Diego, back to the Yankees, and finally to expansion-era Tampa Bay before finishing up his career in 2002. Fashioning a major-league career out of what he told the Kansas City Star was "a little bit south of mediocre" stuff, Eiland had to learn how to prepare and be a pitcher, not just a thrower.

Eiland then began his coaching career in the Yankees' minor leagues, finally becoming the major-league pitching coach in 2008. He held that job through the 2010 season before the Yankees fired him. Eiland spent the 2011 season in the Tampa Bay front office.

The 2007 Yankees had an ERA+ of 101, meaning they were slightly above league-average. They improved to a 104 in 2008 and 108 in 2009 before a slight dropoff to 106 in 2010. Also, the Yankees' walk and strikeout rates did improve over 2007 during Eiland's tenure:

2007: 3.6 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.75 K/BB

2008: 3.1 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 2.33 K/BB

2009: 3.6 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 2.20 K/BB

2010: 3.4 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 2.14 K/BB

Now the downside: the Yanks' 2011 numbers were better in all three of those categories than in 2010 (3.1 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 2.41 K/BB). But if Eiland can help the Royals improve their 2011 numbers (3.5 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.94 K/BB) at the same rate, the Royals could certainly contend in 2012.

Of course, the thing Eiland can't control is what he is given to work with. There is a big difference between coaching CC Sabathia and, say, Danny Duffy. It will be up to Dayton Moore and the farm system to give Eiland talent to work with.

In my opinion, Eiland's most important task will be working with Luke Hochevar. We saw a much-improved Hochevar in the second half of the season, but let's be honest: Hochevar has shown flashes of brilliance before. It's unlikely he will ever be an ace, but if he can be an above-average starter, a bona fide number 2 starter, he will be a key piece of the Royals' rotation.

Other big projects for Eiland: getting Aaron Crow back on track and getting Tim Collins and Danny Duffy to improve their control. I have my doubts about Crow as a starter, although there is certainly no harm in giving him a shot to make the rotation in spring training. But even if he returns to a relief role, the Royals need him to be first-half Aaron Crow. Collins could be a valuable 7th-inning guy, maybe even a setup guy in a pinch, but he averaged 6.4 walks per 9 innings pitched in 2011. You just can't let a guy that wild pitch in the late innings. I think Duffy can be a middle of the rotation guy, but he too needs better control--100 pitches in 5 innings isn't going to cut it.

And The Corner Sign Says It's Closing Time

2011-10-02T22:50:00.001-05:00

...so I'll bid farewell and be down the road

(From "Restless Farewell," The Times They Are A-Changin')

With the curtain pulled down on the Royals' 2011 campaign, it's time to look back at the last six months and also look ahead a bit to 2012.

Like many of you, I wanted the season to go on a while longer. We are all used to looking forward to the end of the season sometime around August 1, if not sooner, but this year was a little different. For me, the interesting part of the season really began on August 10, when the Royals called up Salvador Perez, completing the lineup they would basically use for the rest of the year and the lineup that will likely take the field on Opening Day 2012:

Salvador Perez C

Eric Hosmer 1B

Johnny Giavotella 2B

Alcides Escobar SS

Mike Moustakas 3B

Alex Gordon LF

Melky Cabrera CF

Jeff Francoeur RF

Billy Butler DH

That is probably the most solid everday lineup the Royals have run out there since...I don't know, 2003? Heck, I'd take the catcher and most of that infield over the 2003 team. Anyway, it's been a while since we've seen a lineup where it's enjoyable to watch at least 7 or 8 of the guys hit (I love Escobar's defense of course, but when he's struggling at the plate, it's especially difficult to watch. However, he's not here for his bat--we just have to hope that he'll at least throw in an empty .250 batting average in the future).

But for all the excitement for 2012 in the Royals' fanbase, that lineup only went 22-24 to close out the season. I think there certainly is reason to be excited, but I wouldn't expect a playoff appearance in 2012 unless several things go right. Yes, the Royals played well in September (15-10). They were 18-8 in September 2008, and what did that get us in 2009? The 2012 Royals will almost certainly be better than the 2009 version, but I don't know that they will be as good as we are hoping.

On the bright side, in those 46 games the Royals outscored their opponents 225-207. Over a full season, that would equate to an 87-75 record. But that was fueled in large part by a .297 team batting average in those 46 games. I don't think that's sustainable for six months. The .792 OPS they put up might be sustainable, but the team will need to take more walks to keep that number high. And this is still the Royals--they tied for 11th in the league in walks this season.

I'm sorry if this comes across as pessimistic. Believe me, I'm as excited as anyone to see these guys continue to grow and develop next year. I just don't want to start thinking playoffs quite yet, when there is still so much improvement that needs to take place.

For the Royals to truly contend next year, the first thing that needs to happen is an upgrade to the rotation. Part of the fun this year was seeing Danny Duffy develop, Felipe Paulino come off the scrap heap to strike out nearly a batter per inning, and Luke Hochevar to tease us with a solid second half. Those three will almost certainly all be back for 2012, and I wouldn't mind it if the Royals brought Bruce Chen back for another year of crafty leftiness. There's nothing wrong with this group, it just needs a guy who is clearly THE guy. Unfortunately, the free-agent market is weak this offseason, so the Royals' best bet is a trade. Who they should trade for is a separate post entirely, however.

Any contention in 2012 will also depend on the outfield of Gordon, Cabrera and Francoeur at least approaching the offensive numbers they put up this year. While none of them are at an age where you would expect a big decline in numbers, Gordon and Cabrera both had years quite a bit better than any previous season in their careers. Frenchy's 2011 was his best full season so far, but at least comparable to what he did in a half-season his rookie year and again in a half-season with the Mets. If you add up the trio's OPS+ numbers, you get a total of 380. The Royals will likely need something approaching that from the three of them next year, as the rest of the lineup is so young that there is no guarantee they will produce at the same level or even improve.

Right now, with a whole offseason of moves ahead of us, if I had to guess, I'd say the Royals will have a 2012 much like Cleveland's 2011: hang around 1st place for a while before tapering off and finishing around .500. Which would be a fun season and one I could live with at this point.

In the meantime, I have a few ideas for some offbeat offseason posts, and of course I will be around to opine on whatever moves the Royals make. Opening Day 2012 seems like a long ways away, but I think it will be here before we know it.

My Batting Practice With The Stars (And Jerry Terrell)

2011-09-02T22:35:00.001-05:00

I think the moment when it became real to me, when I realized that what was about to happen would be one of the most memorable experiences of my life, was when I was standing on the right field foul line at Kauffman Stadium. Looking up at all those seats, the Rivals sports bar, and that huge scoreboard, it hit me. I was about to do something that would be far different from any baseball experience of my life.

This was the Royals Alumni Batting Practice, and it was truly amazing. I received this opportunity as an early birthday present from my dad and stepmom. I found out a couple of weeks before the Aug. 27 event that I would be participating, but the nervousness didn't really start until the drive over to the stadium that morning. It was more of a first-day-of-school nervousness, because my only goal was to hit one ball out of the infield and, in general, not embarrass myself. After all, I probably hadn't swung a bat at a baseball since high school, or possibly college. Sure, there had been plenty of slow-pitch softball, but that's not quite the same.

There are very few reasons to be awake at 6:30 on a Saturday morning, but this was certainly a good one. We arrived at the stadium about 7:30, a good 15 minutes before we were supposed to be there, but we were hardly alone. I think most of the participants were already there. We went inside the stadium, which was a rather unusual experience, as the place was quiet and almost eerily still. We proceeded into the Diamond Club and took the elevators down to the Crown Club.

You can see the Crown Club seats on TV every night--they're the ones directly behind home plate. But I really did not know there was a restaurant behind those seats, under the stands. The Royals provided a continental breakfast for those of us participating in the batting practice, and soon Fred White, former Royals radio broadcaster, introduced the alumni who would be joining us:

At last, it was time to head out to the field. Fred White read off our group assignments--there were four groups, with eight or nine of us in each group. I was happy to hear that my group would not be hitting first--I wanted to get some of the butterflies out of my system before I got in the cage.

Before there would be any hitting, though, we all gathered on the right-field foul line. Under the direction of former Royals trainers Paul McGannon and Nick Swartz, we jogged across the outfield and gathered in left field for some stretching.

An observation related to the Royals: That outfield is HUGE. I mean, you can tell it's big when you sit in the stands or even watching on TV. But when you're out there, you get a new appreciation for just how much room is out there. Now I would love to see the Royals trade Melky Cabrera for starting pitching and bring up Lorenzo Cain. I just don't think Melky can adequately cover all that ground, particularly when Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur aren't really above-average rangewise. They are good outfielders, but I don't think they can make up for Melky's lack of range.

Anyway, the first group headed to the batting cage, and we proceeded to center field to catch some fungoes. While Jamie Bluma hit to us, Willie Wilson alternately encouraged us, coached us, and entertained us with stories from his playing days. Since I didn't identify myself as a blogger, I don't feel like I should repeat the stories, but they were entertaining. As a long-time Royals fan, it makes me happy to see Wilson involved with the Royals and seemingly at peace with his place in Royals history. When he played for the Royals, it always seemed like he was a little surly (of course, given the much more limited media coverage in those days, that is just the impression I had). And then the Royals let him go, and I'm sure he felt like he could still play (and he would

have three more decent seasons).

Before we got to hit on the field, we were allowed to head to the batting cages behind the Royals dugout. If you didn't know, there are two batting cages back there where players can go to take extra swings during the game, or if the weather is bad, the entire team may take batting practice there before a game. John Mayberry and Willie Aikens were kind enough to pitch to us--well, it was more of a short toss. From behind screens about 10 feet away, they threw baseball after baseball to us underhanded. It was so good to see Aikens involved with this sort of thing after all he's been through.

Finally, it was time to go out and hit. But first, I had to take care of the blister that had developed on my left hand while I was in the batting cage. Nick Swartz was kind enough to fish a bandage out of his bag of supplies, plus put some tape on the bandage to keep it on. I know the blogging community wasn't always kind to him, but I had no complaints. I will be sure to invest in some batting gloves if I am lucky enough to do this again, though.

As we clustered around the batting cage, I had my first exposure to a treasure of man, Jerry Terrell. I have to admit, I knew very little about him before I got home from this event and looked him up on baseball-reference.com. In fact, I thought he was a backup outfielder, when he was actually a utility infielder. He gave me an impromptu hitting lesson on staying loose while batting, holding a bat between his palms and swinging hard, not closing his hands around the bat until the imagined moment of impact. Armed with this newfound knowledge and confident after smacking line drives all over the batting cage, I stepped in for my turn at bat.

Brian McRae was pitching to our group. Apparently B-Mac likes to throw inside, and hard. I was having trouble getting my hands around fast enough to do much. But somewhere in there, I did hit a couple out of the infield. But those 10 swings were a blur.

Each member of the group got 10 swings, then a second round of five swings, then a third round of two swings. In between turns, we were entertained and encouraged by Jerry Terrell. He is the nicest man you could hope to meet, and quite a storyteller, too. After five minutes, I felt like I'd known him for years, which is why I feel comfortable teasing him (on the off-chance he would read this) with the headline of this post. Really, meeting him and hearing his stories was one of the highlights of the day. I think he could probably make a decent living selling an hour of his time to hear him tell stories--personally, I would love to hear what it was like to be a Royal in the late '70s.

After we hit, it was time to go back out and field for the next two groups. After I'd been in the outfield for a while, Fred White ambled over to the small group I was with. If you're my age, you grew up with Fred and Denny Matthews, and in those days, not nearly as many games were televised. So Denny and Fred were THE way to follow the Royals. So it was cool to talk baseball with Fred for a few minutes.

It didn't take long before it was my group's turn to hit again. This time, our pitcher was Al Fitzmorris. Brian McRae was all business on the mound, but as you might expect, Fitzmorris was a little less serious. One member of our group smacked a couple of line drives, and Fitzmorris said, "Big deal, everyone did that against me!"

Alas, I did not. I think I was a little tired and swinging a little slow. I even swung at one pitch that was at least neck-high, which was not one of my finer moments. I never was much of a hitter, but I always did have a good eye. So that session wasn't as successful as the first one.

Back out on the field, I got to meet and have a little conversation with one of my all-time favorite Royals, Jim Eisenreich. I'm happy to report that he is as nice in person as I hoped he would be. I don't know what he does with his time now, but he obviously spends a decent amount of time working out. He looks like he could still play!

Soon our day was at an end. There was time for some pictures with the Royals alums (see below) and it was over. We gathered our things and walked up the stadium steps to ground level, with memories for a lifetime.

Taking my cuts in the batting cage

Jim Eisenreich and Jerry Terrell with your humble correspondent. I told you Jerry was a cut-up.

Two great first basemen (John Mayberry and Willie Aikens). Oh yeah, and some doofus.

The Joakim Soria Drinking Game

2011-08-23T20:11:00.004-05:00

If you like to follow along on Twitter during Royals games (and why wouldn't you?), you probably know about the Kyle Davies Drinking Game (hat tip to @fakenedyost). Well, since Kyle is no longer with us, it's time for a new drinking game. And who better to inspire this game then the man who pitches when the game is on the line?

Now, before Soria turned into a mere mortal this season, this wouldn't have been much of a game. But since he has struggled for pretty much the whole 2011 season, we've got to do something to calm the nerves any time he tries to protect a lead.

So, here are the rules:

1. Before Soria comes in, take one drink if the Royals are ahead by three runs, two drinks if they are ahead by two runs, and three drinks if the lead is one run. The tighter the game, the more alcohol is needed.

2. Also, take one drink for each runner the Royals left on base in their previous inning. Insurance runs? Who needs 'em?

3. Leadoff walk. Drink.

4. Bloop hit. Drink.

5. Ground ball through the infield. Drink.

6. Soria gets the first out. One drink of water.

6. Soria's famous rainbow curve misses the strike zone by a foot. Drink one shot. Since Soria is Mexican, I recommend a good tequila.

7. Line drive just foul up the right- or left-field line. Drink.

8. Soria's famous rainbow curve bounces in the dirt. Drink one shot.

9. Fly ball to the warning track. Drink.

10. Tying run reaches scoring position. Two drinks.

11. Winning/go-ahead run reaches scoring position. Three drinks.

12. Soria gets the second out. Two drinks of water.

13. If one run scores: if it is not the tying or winning run, take one drink. If it is the tying run, finish your beer. If it is the winning run, finish your beer and spike the remote control.

14. If a second run scores: if it is not the tying or winning run, take two drinks. If it is the tying run, finish your beer. If it is the winning run, finish your beer and spike the remote control.

15. If a third run scores: finish your beer and spike the remote control. Get on Twitter and wonder why Greg Holland couldn't have just stayed in the damn game.

16. If Soria manages to close out the game: break out the champagne! One glass to celebrate.

Any suggestions for extra rules?

Pick Up Your Money And Pack Up Your Tent

2011-08-18T21:55:00.001-05:00

...you ain't going nowhere.

(From "You Ain't Going Nowhere," The Basement Tapes)

"You" in this case being Jeff Francoeur. And he ain't going nowhere for at least two years after signing a contract extension with the Royals.

The move was announced this morning, and although this is an incredibly busy time at work for me, I tried to follow the discussion on Twitter. Frankly, I was taken aback by the hate for this move, especially before we even knew the financial details.

Now that we do know the details--$13.5 million over two years--it's easier to pass judgement on this deal. And my judgement is: this deal is not awful, but I wouldn't call myself a fan.

When the Royals signed Frenchy over the winter, I actually thought it was a decent addition. Now that we're 75% of the way through the season, it's obvious that it was a terrific addition. A 119 OPS+, a gun for a right arm, and yes, leadership--Francoeur has been a valuable player for the Royals this year. Of course, my hope when the Royals signed him was that he would play well and then be traded to fill a position of need.

However, a couple of things have changed since then. First, the Royals have evidently decided they can compete in the AL Central in 2012. Second, some of the bloom has come off the Wil Myers prospect rose.

As I've said before, I do think the Royals can compete next year. Obviously, the starting pitching will have to have considerable improvement, whether through trade, free agent signing, or simply having one of the talented young relievers in the bullpen adapt quickly to starting next year. Or having Mike Montgomery somehow overcome a disappointing 2011 season and contribute. At any rate, if you plan on contending, it's nice to have a right fielder on pace for roughly 20 homers, 45 doubles, 88 RBI, 25 stolen bases and 16 outfield assists.

It's especially nice when you don't have an apparent successor ready in the minor leagues. With all the talent that has come up to the majors this year, Wil Myers is probably the top position player prospect left in the farm system. After he raked at Class A Wilmington last year (in what is normally a terrible hitters' park), it seemed like he would be ready for the majors soon. But now, in a terrific hitters' park in Northwest Arkansas, Myers is...well, not struggling. But not doing outstanding, either. His OPS is .727, which is not bad but not really setting the world on fire. Most concerning is his lack of power; he only has 5 homers in 82 games coming in to tonight's games. That was a good week for Mike Moustakas as a Natural. This isn't meant to say that Myers is a bust. He's still just 20 and having a decent year at Double-A. He just doesn't look like he will be ready for the majors until 2013 now.

Faced with these developments, the Royals are obviously betting that Francoeur will overcome his historical pattern of starting off well for a team and then struggling. There is certainly a chance that this pattern will continue next year. I do think this is about as good a season as he is capable of. And if he falls off a lot, this contract will look terrible. If he falls off a little, it looks underwhelming. If he somehow continues this level of production, then it probably is about right. And there's my concern: I feel like the Royals overpaid slightly for a player who is having a very good season and has a decent chance of never being this good again. Then again, if the total dollars had been in the $11-12 million range, I would think that was fair. That is why I'm not that upset about it.

Catching Up

2011-08-14T21:45:00.001-05:00

Even an uneventful trade deadline helped make the last two weeks very eventful for the Royals franchise. If first-round draft pick Bubba Starling signs before tomorrow night's deadline, as is generally expected, we may look back on the past two weeks as the timeframe where the 2012-2018 Royals took shape.

By essentially standing pat at the deadline, the Royals basically committed to having one or both of Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur in the outfield next year. Cabrera will almost certainly be there, and I'd say Frenchy probably will be too. Even if he turns down his part of the mutual option for 2012 in his contract, I bet the Royals will do just about anything to re-sign him.

The Royals did add one potential piece of the puzzle by shipping Mike Aviles to Boston for Yamaico Navarro. I like this trade--Navarro will probably end up as a utility infielder who can hit a little bit. In short, a younger, probably more talented version of Aviles. Heck, if Mike Moustakas can't figure out major league pitching, Navarro might be a stopgap at third base for a while. I still believe Moustakas will learn to hit, but it's getting harder to believe that each day he goes 0-4.

A few days later, the Royals finally called up second baseman Johnny Giavotella. This move was long overdue, but whatever. I'd rather a prospect prove he has conquered the minor leagues than have that prospect called up too soon (like Moustakas almost certainly was). With this move, the Royals appear to have their infield set for the better part of the next decade. This should excite even the most casual Royals fan: the probable 2012 Opening Day infield, with their age next April 1:

1B Eric Hosmer, age 22. Under team control through 2017 season.

2B Johnny Giavotella, age 24. Under team control through 2017 season.

SS Alcides Escobar, age 25. Under team control through 2016 season.

3B Mike Moustakas, age 23. Under team control through 2017 season.

DH/1B Billy Butler, age 25. Under team control through 2015 season (team option for 2o15).

2B/SS/3B Yamaico Navarro, age 24. Under team control through 2016 season.

Throw in the catching duo of Salvador Perez (age 21, under team control through 2017) and Manny Pina (age 24, under team control through 2017) and you have a strong core of players that should learn to play at the major league level together, and hopefully win together.

The next step is getting Bubba Starling in the fold. I would think that he will go ahead and take the Royals' money rather than wait around for his chance to play quarterback at Nebraska. We won't have to wait long to find out--the deadline for him to sign is tomorrow night. There is a decent chance Starling will flame out, but if he is able to harness his considerable ability, the Royals will have a star in the outfield in short time.

March Me Away To The Station

2011-07-28T21:00:00.001-05:00

...I'm off to some far-distant land.

(From "Little Maggie," Good As I Been To You)

With the trade deadline coming up Sunday, the Royals are in a unique position. It's one you don't normally see for a team roughly 20 games under .500. Normally when you are that bad, you need help anywhere you can get it. But in the Royals' case, with so many young players on the major league roster and many more waiting in the wings, KC can afford to be picky if they decide to make some moves.

The Royals appear to be set at pretty much each defensive position, if not for this year, then for 2012 and beyond. Presumably they will pull the trigger on Johnny Giavotella at some point and he will be starting at second base next year, and today's promotion of Salvador Perez to Omaha makes me think he will be given every opportunity to win the starting catcher spot next spring.

Given that, Dayton Moore's focus the next few days and in the offseason has to be fixing a starting rotation that has ranged from mediocre to downright awful this season. Plus, there is a good chance they will need two new starters to fill out the rotation before next season. I feel like the Royals can compete for a division title next year in the normally weak AL Central, but only with a serious upgrade to the rotation. Moore's secondary objective should be solving the outfield logjam that is likely to result whenever Lorenzo Cain is deemed worthy of a spot on the major-league roster.

As a bonus, the Royals have plenty of prospects at all levels of the minor leagues now. Also, with this year's payroll at $38 million and change, there is plenty of room to add payroll. For once in recent Royals history, money is no object. Or shouldn't be, anyway.

Perusing the list of potential free agent pitchers this winter, it looks like a pretty thin class. Normally, big name free agents wouldn't even consider signing with the Royals. But I think players know what's going on with this organization and would at least consider coming here now. If there were plenty of big names available, I'd say the Royals would have a chance of signing one. But the limited star power in this particular class certainly hurts their chances. So any upgrade will probably have to come via trade, whether it's this week or in the offseason.

If it were up to me, I would be looking to trade for major league pitchers or pitching prospects who are ready to make the majors next year. I would certainly be looking to trade either Jeff Francoeur or Melky Cabrera. Or both, if I got enough return. I like both Frenchy and Melky, and both have played well here. But there is no guarantee the Royals can bring Frenchy back next season, and there is no guarantee Melky will hit as well next year. While it's true Cabrera is only 26 and theoretically entering his prime years, it is also true he has never had an offensive season this good. So I wouldn't feel locked in to bringing him back.

Beyond those two, I would be willing to listen to offers for anyone. While the Royals can afford to be picky, they shouldn't feel like any player is untouchable. The flip side of having a low payroll is that nobody on this team has a contract that would be untradeable. That should help the Royals get a better return if they trade someone on the major-league roster.

So KC is in a good position to trade a Joakim Soria or a Billy Butler, if that is what it takes to get a good starting pitcher. Of course I like Soria and Butler and would like them to stay, but I would like the Royals to win, too. And in Soria's case, I feel like he can be replaced by Aaron Crow or one of the other promising young relievers. Butler would be more difficult to replace--I'm not sure Clint Robinson is up to it, and the next really big hitting prospect in the system is Wil Myers, still in Class AA ball.

This trade deadline, and really the offseason, are going to be very important times for this franchise. You can only hoard so many prospects, and the payroll is unlikely to be this low again for some time. Smart, aggressive trades can set this team up for contention over the next several years.

Anger Management

2011-07-16T12:51:00.001-05:00

Think back to last Sunday's Royals game, the last one before the All-Star Break. In the bottom of the ninth, with the Royals down by one run, Eric Hosmer tried to steal third. It was a close play, but I thought he was safe when it happened. Replays didn't prove it, but it certainly looked like there was a good chance Hosmer was safe. So instead of the tying run being on third with one out, there was no one on with two out. Hosmer argued (well, questioned might be a better word) briefly with the umpire as he got up. He insisted to the media after the game that he was safe.

I know lots of people didn't care for this gamble. Personally, I didn't have a problem with it. The Royals have obviously put an emphasis on stolen bases and baserunning as keys to their offense this year. While we can debate the merits of that strategy, I can't fault them for sticking to their guns in a game situation.

No, my problem with the play was that Ned Yost didn't even go out and argue the call. Now, it's true that manager-umpire arguments are mostly exercises in futility. But I think there is value in a manager sticking up for his players, particularly young players.

Tactics matter, but many times a manager has little or no effect on the outcome of a game. However, a manager can help his team every day by psychological means. I'm a stats kind of guy--I believe they can tell us a lot about who is actually a valuable player, who is overrated, where a guy is best suited to play in the field, and so on. But stats have never, and probably never will, tell us about the human aspect of the game.

Given that, I feel a manager can really help boost his team's confidence by standing up for them when they are on the wrong end of a bad call. It's just human nature to perform better when you know the boss has your back.

If I may switch sports...not to disappoint MU or K-State fans reading this, but I am a KU fan. And I'm one of those rare KU fans who cares as much about the football team as I do about the basketball team. And I believe with all my heart that Mark Mangino's comments after a horrible

offensive pass interference call cost the Jayhawks a game against Texas in 2004 helped make KU football competitive, at least for a few years. Starting the week after that game, KU went 39-21 until the end of Mangino's tenure. And many players pointed to that press conference as a turning point for the program.

Go watch the video I linked--fast-forward to the 3:40 mark for Mangino's postgame comments. It's commonly referred to as a rant, but watching it it's apparent that Mangino knows exactly what he's doing--sending a message to the league, the officials, and especially his own players that KU football would no longer be a pushover.

I'm not saying Yost needs to develop a Mangino-like attitude (insert eating joke here), especially given what we know now about Mangino's treatment of players and assistant coaches, which ended up being his downfall. But I do think it would help the Royals if Yost would stand up for his players a little more.

I think we all know that young players are not as likely as veterans to get the benefit of the doubt from umpires. It may not be fair, but it's been that way in baseball for decades. When a team is full of young players, the franchise has been irrelevant for almost 20 years now, and a joke for the better part of the last 15 years, it's going to be tough to get the umpires' respect. That's where a veteran manager, who has also played and coached in the majors, can help. I'm not saying Ned Yost should become Bobby Cox, but he has only been ejected once this year and once last year, as best as I can tell (if anybody knows where to find a comprehensive list of manager ejections, please let me know!). All these young players the Royals have? They have enough problems and pressure trying to figure out the game at its highest level. I think it would help them somewhat if Yost were a little more aggressive with the umpires.

The 2011 Royals: Progress?

2011-07-10T17:40:00.001-05:00

A year ago, heading into the All-Star Break, the Royals were 39-49. This year, after today's loss, they are 37-54. That doesn't sound like much progress has been made, does it? I have seen and heard this be said many times in the last few weeks as the bottom has fallen out of the 2011 season.

Yet, I feel like this is a better team now than it was a year ago.

For one thing, the 2011 Royals are on pace to score 716 runs. Last year, they scored 676. Even better, with offensive numbers down all around the league, this year the Royals are sixth in the AL in runs scored and above the league average. In 2010, the Royals were 10th in the AL in runs scored and 45 runs below the league average. Even better, the Royals are doing this with the youngest offense in all of Major League Baseball, according to baseball-reference.com.

That leads me to two key thoughts about the Royals' offense: it should continue to improve over the next few years as players like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas get more experience, and this offense should get even younger, but better, in the short term whenever Lorenzo Cain (age 25) and Johnny Giavotella (turning 24 tomorrow) are added to the mix.

In other good news, all those rookies in the bullpen are having solid years. I like that the Royals are using the bullpen to get a potential starting pitcher like Aaron Crow acclimated to the majors while controlling his innings. And guys that project as relievers in the majors, like a Louis Coleman, are getting to experience success in 6th- and 7th- inning situations. With Joakim Soria apparently back to his normal form, you have to like the Royals' chances for a win if they can get through 5 or 6 innings with a lead.

Defensively, this team at least looks better than any Royals team in recent memory. With Alcides Escobar playing a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop, Eric Hosmer showing Gold Glove potential at first base and the outfielders leading the majors in assists, the eye test tells me this is an upgraded defensive team from last year. Oddly enough, though, the Royals rank last in the league in the Defensive Efficiency stat, which is simply a measurement of how many batted balls are turned into outs. Which leads me to the main problem with this year's team...

Many expected the 2011 Royals to have the worst starting rotation in baseball history. They haven't been that bad, but they have been awful. Royals starters have won 19 games this year. The relievers have won 18. Royals starters have compiled a 5.13 ERA this year, while the bullpen has a 3.56 ERA (and remember, Vin Mazzaro's amazingly awful outing in May counts against the bullpen's numbers, even though he's normally a starting pitcher). But the most telling (and damning) statistic about the starters: in 519 1/3 innings pitched, they have 303 strikeouts. In 303 2/3 innings pitched, the relievers have 262 strikeouts.

That's right. In 216 more innings, Royals starters have managed to strikeout only 41 more hitters than the relievers. And this is after Felipe Paulino has amassed 42 K's in 43.2 innings. Basically, if the Royals hadn't plucked Paulino off the waiver wire, the strikeout competition would be a dead heat.

This ties in to the defensive stats of the team. The fewer strikeouts the pitchers get, the more opposing hitters are putting the ball in play. That doesn't necessarily impact the Defensive Efficiency stat, but it does give more chances for bloopers to fall in, grounders to find a hole, line drives to find a gap, or fly balls to get over the fence. It's nearly impossible to win consistently as a starter when you are striking out only five batters per nine innings pitched. About the only way to do it is to limit your walks, but of course the Royals are failing at that too. KC has given up the second-most walks in the AL, and the bullpen has contributed to that (178 walks by starters, 137 by relievers).

The plan on Opening Day was to have a starting rotation of Luke Hochevar, Jeff Francis, Bruce Chen, Kyle Davies and Mazzaro. They have 198 K's in 369 innings. Hochevar in particular is a mystery--for all his faults, he struck out 6.7 hitters per nine innings in 2009, 6.6 last year, but is only at 4.6 this year. Chen and Francis have never been big strikeout guys, but their rates have fallen off a bit, too. Only Davies has maintained his normal rate. Unfortunately, he's also maintained his normal rate of awfulness, too.

On the bright side, Paulino and Danny Duffy have both put up good strikeout numbers in their limited time as Royals. Paulino is at 8.4 K's per nine innings, while Duffy has 7.4. In fact, they rank 3rd and 4th on the team in strikeouts (Duffy and Crow are tied at 43). Both of them should expect to be in the rotation next year.

Unfortunately, any help from the minor leagues seems to be a ways off. I think we all expected Mike Montgomery to be in the majors by now, but a prolonged bout of wildness at Omaha has kept him in the minors. I'm not too worried--it sounds like his velocity is still there, just the command has been off. After skipping one turn in the rotation, he has had two consecutive good starts. Also, he just turned 22 last week and he's already had a half-season in AAA ball--that's very advanced for his age. If Monty keeps putting together solid outings, I would expect him to be called up in August or September, depending on what moves the Royals make at the July 31 trade deadline.

The 2011 Royals are a prime example of how important good starting pitching is. The offense is good enough to win, especially in a weak division like the AL Central (the Royals are second in the division in runs scored, only 10 behind Detroit). The bullpen is solid. In Escobar, Hosmer and Alex Gordon, the Royals have three of the best defensive players in the league at their respective positions. But without starting pitching, they have one of the worst records in the league. Progress has been made, but not in the most important area of any baseball team.

Omaha

2011-06-14T21:30:00.009-05:00

A beautiful night at Werner Park

After the Royals had their Futures Game earlier this year, The Amazing Michelle and I thought it would be cool to take a short weekend trip to Omaha and check out a couple of games. We planned for a weekend in early June, hoping a) the weather would be good, and b) Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas would still be playing there. Well, we got half of our wishes. Hosmer, of course, has been raking at the major league level for over a month now. And the Royals pulled the trigger on the Moustakas call-up the day before we headed north.

However, the nice thing about The Best Farm System Ever is that there are still plenty of prospects at Omaha waiting for their turn in the majors. Also, there's the little matter of the Storm Chasers' shiny new ballpark, Werner Park.

We visited Arvest Ballpark, home of the Northwest Arkansas Naturals, a couple of years ago and were impressed by that facility. Werner Park feels very similar. Just like the "new" Kauffman Stadium, it is possible to walk all the way around the ballpark and still see the game. There are some good concession stands, too--we enjoyed the cheeseburgers at the Omaha Steaks stand, although the concession workers seemed a bit overwhelmed by the large crowd (the Friday night game set a Werner Park attendance record, which was broken at the Saturday night game).

The games were enjoyable, too. The Storm Chasers were taking on the Oklahoma City RedHawks for the weekend. I am not much of an expert on other teams' farm systems, but I have to admit I had not heard of any of the Oklahoma City players, except for a few pitchers with major league experience and Koby Clemens (yes, Roger's son), who I don't believe is a top prospect.

As for Royals prospects, I was most impressed with Johnny Giavotella and Lorenzo Cain. In the two games, Cain went 3-6 with two walks and two doubles, plus made a couple of nice diving catches in center field. Giavotella was 4-8 with two walks and a home run. I guess left field can be a good home run area in Werner Park if the wind is blowing out, but both games were played with more of a cross wind, so I don't think Giavotella's blast was wind-aided. I know the knock on Gio is his defense, but he looked OK to me. He started one nice double play on Saturday night, and almost had another one (frankly, I think the ump blew the call at first base).

David Lough had a good night Friday (2-5) and a bad one Saturday (0-5), although he did hit a couple of balls hard in the second game. Clint Robinson was only 2-9 in the two games, although he did hit a home run to right field that definitely got no help from the wind. Anyways, Robinson's numbers for the season are impressive, and I hope he gets a shot at the majors somehow. It will be tough for the Royals to find a place for him with Hosmer and Billy Butler around.

Johnny Giavotella, ready to hit

If you have a chance to go up to Omaha sometime, I recommend it. We had a great time. And if you don't get there this summer, just remember that next summer there's a good chance Wil Myers and some other prospects will be there. Hmm...this might be an annual event!

(Photos courtesy of The Amazing Michelle)

A Fast Flyin' Train On A Tornado Track

2011-05-15T18:52:00.005-05:00

(from "Last Thoughts On Woody Guthrie," The Bootleg Series, Vol. 1-3)

I know bloggers and stat nerds often get tagged with the reputation of being more interested in the numbers of baseball, rather than what the "old media" have tagged as the poetic, beautiful side of the game. Of course, any thinking person knows this is poppycock. There would be no reason to devote this much time and energy to something we didn't care about, and frankly, the statistically inclined would be better off using their considerable talents to make a pile of money on Wall Street.

Anyway, this particular blog post is about the poetic, beautiful side of the game. Namely, Jarrod Dyson. That dude is fast!

I know that's not earth-shattering news to any Royals fan, but it's fun to talk about. In fact, I'm hard-pressed to think of a Royals position player who has been more fun to watch than...Carlos Beltran, maybe?

I will admit, as a slow, fat guy, I have a soft spot for Royals who can run like the wind. I'm a little too young to remember Willie Wilson's prime as a speedster, but I always wanted Gary Thurman, Tom Goodwin and Joey Gathright to succeed. I like to imagine what I could do if I could run like that, just for one day. How much fun it would be, even in a beer-league softball game, to cover ground like that, to feel the wind rushing past your face as you fly down the baseline. Heck, I'd be parking my car at the far ends of parking lots and sprinting for the front doors wherever I was going.

Now that I'm older and hopefully wiser, I understand the limitations those guys had, and that Dyson shares with them: a lack of power and a low walk rate once pitchers realize they can challenge these guys and not worry about giving up homers.

In a perfect world, Dyson would be in Omaha, getting regular at-bats. The Royals are probably stunting his development some by keeping him in the majors. On the other hand, the Royals are definitely using him in the most judicious way possible while he's in the majors. Rather than just throwing him out there, they are picking their spots and letting his speed work for them at crucial moments in ballgames.

Meanwhile, I'm going to just enjoy the show whenever Dyson gets on base. Not only is he blazing fast, he seems to have very good baserunning instincts. And as a guy who was picked in the 50th and final round of the 2006 draft, Dyson is easy to root for. His mere presence in the majors is an example of odds overcome. In the first quarter of this season, the Royals have shown that they will fight, scratch and claw every night, and Dyson is just one Royal who embodies that spirit.

Your Hearts Must Have The Courage

2011-05-09T19:48:00.005-05:00

...for the changing of the guards

(From "Changing Of The Guards," Street Legal)

I realize I am likely the last Royals blogger to say something about the Eric Hosmer callup, but really, what is there to say? I would have liked to see Kila Ka'aihue get a little more time to prove himself, but that's the way it goes sometimes. You can't really keep a guy hitting .439 with an OPS of 1.107 at AAA any longer than the Royals did. The fact that we still don't know for sure whether Kila is a bonafide major leaguer is due to the Royals trading for Mike Jacobs, not due to Eric Hosmer being called up. But that mistake happened and we can't fix it, just gripe about it.

The more interesting aspect of the Hosmer callup is what it says about the Royals organization right now. Whether you believe it or not, the Royals obviously think they are contenders this year. Personally, I don't think this team is good enough to win the AL Central, although they certainly look better than most people thought at the beginning of the season. And hey, as long as they are within a good two weeks of the division lead, they are actually contenders. I don't think Cleveland will continue on their 108-win pace, so why not give it a shot this year?

The easy play for the Royals would have been to let Kila keep playing here for another month, then call up Hosmer and not cost themselves an extra $8-$10 million in arbitration years from now. Instead, the Royals did the right thing for the team on the field, and for the fans. They should be commended for that.

It will be interesting to see how committed the Royals stay to the idea of contending this year. I can't imagine them trading top prospects for short-term "rental players." On the other hand, you could argue that adding Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery to the rotation is a talent upgrade over whomever they replace, and a "free" one to boot. And adding Mike Moustakas to the lineup actually strengthens the bench, as he likely takes playing time away from Wilson Betemit and Mike Aviles. (In a perfect world, Aviles would start at second and Chris Getz would be benched. But in the name of defense and general scrappiness, I have no doubt Getz will see the majority of the time at second.)

In a way, the Royals are playing with house money. No one expected them to contend this year. Now, they do find themselves in the race, early as it may be. Any prospect they call up will benefit from playing in important games, if the Royals can stay in it. If the Royals fall out of contention, then they can focus on getting as many prospects who deserve it to the majors. It's a good spot to be in.

Give Me A Minute, Let Me Get It Together

2011-04-23T14:28:00.005-05:00

...I just gotta pick myself up off the floor

(From "Senor (Tales of Yankee Power)," Street Legal)

He was a promising young hitter, although it took him a couple of seasons to get out of Class A ball. After splitting a season between AA and AAA, he was sent back to Triple A the next season, although he did get a September callup. An injury basically wiped out the following season, but he finally stuck in the majors in his sixth professional season. However, he only managed a .248/.313/.442 line in 182 plate appearances, good for a 97 OPS+. It would take three more seasons and 266 games before he found his niche, at age 28.

Our mystery player is one of the greatest hitters in Royals history: Hal McRae. And I hope his story will encourage Royals fans to be a little more patient with Kila Ka'aihue.

The point of this exercise is not to say that Kila is the next Hal McRae, but rather to show that even very good hitters can get off to slow starts at the major league level. And frankly, Ka'aihue's minor league stats compare favorably to McRae's.

It has been frustrating to watch Kila struggle during the first three weeks of the 2011 season. Just like it was probably frustrating to watch McRae hit .188/299/.328 in his first 18 games in 1973. Or George Brett hit .242/.324/.409 in his first 18 games in 1978. But 18 games is just not enough to give up on a guy, particularly a guy who has only played the equivalent of half of one season in the majors, like Kila has.

I know, it seems like Kila has been around forever. We've been hearing about him and looking forward to seeing him play since his monster 2008 season, split between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha. But really, he has only been a major leaguer for 82 games (going into Saturday night's game at Texas). After making him wait behind Ross Gload, Mike Jacobs, and Jose Guillen, I think the Royals owe it to Ka'aihue to give him at least into June to prove himself.

I understand why fans might want to push Kila aside. Both Eric Hosmer and Clint Robinson are off to hot starts at Omaha. The major league team looks like it might have a shot at actually contending for a title this year in a mediocre division, and division champs don't have first basemen who hit .188. But the same caveat applies to Hosmer and Robinson--both are in their first seasons at Omaha. If they can keep up their hitting for a longer period of time, then yes, figure out a way to make room for them in the majors. I don't think it's really fair to them (or to Kila) to bring them up now and expect them to keep the Royals in contention.

Furthermore, I would be more concerned with Kila's slow start if he were not still drawing walks. Part of the reason Royals fans have been excited by his minor league numbers was that sterling on-base percentage. In an organization that has done a great job talking about the importance of getting on base a lot, but has not been so good at getting players who actually, you know, get on base a lot, Kila stood out. So far this year, Ka'aihue is tied for second on the team with 10 walks. He's still exhibiting a good understanding of the strike zone, which gives me confidence he will hit at some point. Part of his problem is the team-high 21 strikeouts, which is rather high for a player who only struck out 39 times in 206 plate appearances last season.

Also, Kila's luck hasn't been the greatest this season, with a .256 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Since a normal BABIP is around .300, I would expect his average to go up. And as the weather gets warmer, his power should improve too.

The time is coming when the Royals will have to decide which two of the four 1B/DH types they have between KC and Omaha they want to keep. But that time is not now. Kila may need a change of scenery to hit, or he may just need a little more time to get his game going. Getting rid of him now, though, would be selling when his stock is at its lowest. And it would be a mistake.

Thoughts On The Futures Game

2011-04-03T10:30:00.002-05:00

John Lamb pitching to Eric Hosmer. Mike Montgomery pitching to Wil Myers. Christian Colon fielding Johnny Giavotella's grounder and throwing him out at first. Is this a bizarre dream? No. Is it a sample of a Red Sox-Yankees game from 2020? God, I hope not. In this instance, it definitely is not. No, this is the Royals Futures Game, a matchup between the Northwest Arkansas Naturals and Omaha Storm Chasers. And it's a wonderful thing.

The Amazing Michelle (that's my way better half if you're new to this blog) and I spent most of our Saturday at the old ballpark, taking in the Royals-Angels game and then the Futures Game. Thankfully, it was a beautiful day for baseball, and the major league team played well. This was my first in-person look at the Royals, and I was pleasantly surprised. Of course, it's hard to tell anything from one game, but it does seem like the Royals will be better defensively and certainly in the bullpen. Yes, the defense has struggled a bit in the first few games, but I think most of that has been Mike Aviles, and I believe he is better with the glove than he has shown so far. We've seen him play a decent shortstop, so he should be able to handle third base. And if he does keep making two errors a game, he won't be playing third very long.

Meanwhile, Alcides Escobar is a lot of fun to watch. Especially after years of watching Angel Berroa, Tony Pena Jr. and Yuniesky Betancourt. It's just nice to not have to hold your breath every time a ball is hit towards the shortstop.

And this bullpen. So far, it looks outstanding. You may remember that last year, for the first month of the season, the bullpen was the weakest link by far on a bad team. That pretty much torpedoed any hope that existed at the start of the season. This year, knock wood, that looks like it won't happen. Aaron Crow looked darn near unhittable yesterday. And I think after three games, Angels manager Mike Scioscia would trade his entire bullpen for the Royals' relievers. So that's a positive. And if the rookies in the bullpen are any indication of the talent on the way to the majors, that's a big positive.

It was a lot of fun to see some of that talent actually on the Kauffman Stadium field. I'm no scout, but I have been watching baseball for a good 30 years now, and I saw lots of things to like. Once again, it's hard to tell much from one game, but I really like Mike Montgomery. Pitching for Omaha, he held Northwest Arkansas hitless for four innings. Montgomery was throwing hard (mid-90s), yet displayed a terrific breaking ball a few times. I also like his delivery--it seems compact, simple, and repeatable. It will be fun to follow him at Omaha this year and see how he does.

Overall, I thought all the pitching looked good. Chris Dwyer struggled a bit, and Danny Duffy walked 3 batters in his 3 innings (while striking out 5, so he wasn't terrible, just a bit wild). Of course, the flip side is that the hitters didn't do a whole lot. David Lough hit the game's only homer--I hope he gets a shot at the majors sometime soon. Johnny Giavotella had a couple of walks and a stolen base, plus a nice defensive play. The two hitters everyone wanted to see, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer, only went 1-8 combined. I think they might have been trying a little too hard to put on a show. I'm not worried about them--what they've done in their minor league careers so far tells me they can hit.

Kudos to whomever came up with the idea for this game. The Royals should definitely make this a yearly tradition, even after this group of prospects is in the majors. Let's face it, this franchise's success will always depend on a strong farm system. So why not give fans in KC a chance to see them and get to know them? Plus, it's got to be good for the prospects to get an opportunity to play in a major league stadium. Perhaps it will reduce the nerves just a bit if and when they actually reach the majors. I really can't see any downside to having this game every year. I would hope the Royals promote it more in the future--I know a couple of fans who didn't know anything about when I talked to them this week, and these weren't casual fans either. But if this game does become an annual event, I suppose it will become well known.

The Best Is Always Yet To Come

2011-03-30T19:25:00.003-05:00

...that's what they explain to me.

(From "If Dogs Run Free," New Morning)

So here we are, hours away from the beginning of the 2011 season. I don't think anyone anywhere expects this season to be a success, despite the Royals' excellent spring training record. But I am excited about this season. The transformation of this franchise is finally underway. Consider this: 16 players on this year's Opening Day roster were not on last year's Opening Day roster (the holdovers: Mike Aviles, Billy Butler, Kyle Davies, Chris Getz, Luke Hochevar, Mitch Maier, Brayan Pena, Joakim Soria, and Robinson Tejeda. Alex Gordon was on the DL last year, while Jason Kendall is on it this year. Other than that, the roster has been turned over. The bullpen will feature four rookies, and two more guys who are essentially rookies (Sean O'Sullivan and Kanekoa Texeira).

This is only the beginning; we're going to see more rookies and second-year players joining the roster this year. The position players have more experience, but there's a good chance several of them will be gone by Opening Day 2012 (the only position player currently under contract for next year is Butler). So if somebody is lousy, or if a top prospect is ready, the roster flexibility is there to do what needs to be done.

I wouldn't say the win-loss record doesn't matter this year--the goal is always to win. But this season, a close second might be how well the fleet of rookies and second-year players perform. Even if 2011 is another 90-loss season, Royals fans can look for youngsters who seem like they "get it"--even the best rookies will struggle at times, but if they can play and then make adjustments when the league figures them out, then we'll know we've potentially got something.

That said, I think the two key players this season are Luke Hochevar and Alex Gordon. Although they haven't exactly earned it on the field at the major league level, both have been put in important positions to start the season, with Hochevar getting the Opening Day start and Gordon set to hit third in the lineup. I really like these moves. At some point, top draft picks have to stop being prospects and start being key cogs in the machine. If these two can step up to the roles the Royals have assigned them, the season may be better than anyone expects. If they can't, it may be time to cut bait.

As for predictions, I'm thinking the Royals go 72-90. I imagine they'll finish last, although they certainly could be better than Cleveland. My hope is that a seemingly improved defense will help a less-than-stellar rotation, and that the offense will be better than last year's. The Royals gave up 845 runs last year, worst in the AL and 130 over the league average. Cutting that down to around 800 would be a good start, even though it would still be too high. Meanwhile, they scored 676 runs; getting to around 725 this year would be a good sign.

Youth Movements: Is This One Different?

2011-03-06T16:30:00.001-06:00

These are exciting times for Royals fans. Or you would think so, anyway.

It seems like you can't watch or listen to or read any sort of baseball media these days without hearing how great the Royals' farm system looks. I assume most of you are familiar with the details, but if not, let's just say there's a good chance the Royals have the best collection of minor league talent assembled in recent memory. Whether you're a scout or a stathead, whether you like a team built on pitching and speed or a team built on power and offense, this system has something for you.

But recently it seems like there is a mild undercurrent of, I don't know, distrust? A reluctance to embrace the immense potential in the minor leagues. A fear that, like so many other things in recent Royals history, this too will go wrong, and possibly spectacularly wrong. I sense this dread coming from both casual fans and from some of the more hardcore fans (the ones who frequent blogs and message boards, for example). The former may not know all the names that have us hardcore fans salivating, but they seem convinced that the Royals will be trading them all off within the next two years. The latter seem convinced that every single prospect will fail to live up to expectations, and that it doesn't matter even if a few of them do work out, because Dayton Moore is not a good enough evaluator of major league talent to add the proper supplemental pieces.

I do understand the trepidation. It is true that most prospects fail to pan out completely. For every Billy Butler or Zack Greinke, there's an Alex Gordon, Mark Teahen, Kyle Davies or Jeremy Affeldt. Or worse--all those guys are roughly average major leaguers. Not stars by any stretch, but they do have a role and even a deep team would probably find a use for them. For every Butler or Greinke, there are even more guys who are total busts. It is probable that one or two out of the Royals' top 10 prospects will suffer from injuries, inconsistency, or inability to hit a curveball. Or all three. Of the other top 10 guys, two or three more will likely fail to reach their full potential for whatever reason, but will hang on in the majors for a while. The rest will be solid players, and perhaps one or two will achieve stardom.

But here's the thing: the Royals probably have twice as many top prospects as anybody. That is to say, if their entire top 10 list started the season in the majors and all the folks doing the rankings had to pick a completely new top 10, that list would still be impressive. Rany Jazayerli has made this point far better (and with far more authority) than I could, but I certainly believe the talent is there to make the Royals a very good team in the near future.

As for the notion that the Royals will be trading off all these players in the near future, I think the team has proven in recent years that they will sign talented young players to contract extensions if they are willing. Greinke, Butler, and Joakim Soria are proof of that. And yes, the Royals traded Greinke. But they did sign him to one contract extension first, and Zack apparently wasn't interested in signing another. So instead they turned him into four prospects and even got rid of Yuniesky Betancourt in the process.

On the other hand, the Royals probably will eventually have to trade some of these players, either to fill a need or to clear payroll. The way the Royals will maintain success in the future is by having a core of young (and therefore inexpensive) but talented players supplementing the older players the Royals have signed to extensions or added through free agency. But the notion the Royals will be trading all of this young talent in the next couple of years is just silly. We know from the past couple of years that David Glass is willing to have a $70 million payroll, yet this year's will be around half that. The flexibility is there to lock up any young player the Royals want to.

Meanwhile, it is true that Dayton Moore has made some, um, questionable free agent signings and trades. Yet in the last year, he has seemed to learn from some of his bigger mistakes. Thus, Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera got one-year deals, not three-year deals. And nearly every trade he made at the trade deadline last year and after has received at least some praise. Plus, it seems odd to say that the same scouting department that has amassed this minor league talent is incapable of properly evaluating major leaguers.

I think once it becomes clear the Royals are on the upswing, it will be easier to convince free agents to come here. Look at most of the free agents the Royals have signed the last few years. Many of them were coming off injury or some sort of ineffectiveness. Essentially, the Royals have become the Last Chance Saloon for many a free agent, a chance to cash a few more paychecks before moving on to life after baseball. I'd argue the only real in-his-prime, could-actually-be-useful free agent Moore has signed is Gil Meche. Now, the Royals weren't smart enough to keep him healthy for all five years, but they did get good value for that money before he got hurt.

Of course, part of the fear is that we have heard this "youth movement" argument many times, and been burned nearly every time. I checked baseball-reference.com's franchise encyclopedia for the Royals, which includes the average age for batters and pitchers for each season. In the absence of an average age for the entire roster, I added those numbers together for each season. Since the 1994 players' strike, that total has decreased by one year five different times.

The first two times were the 1995 (-1.1) and 1996 (-1) seasons, which makes sense. In the aftermath of the strike, the Royals either foresaw the coming salary explosion and refused to join in, or threw in the towel, depending on your point of view. Ewing Kauffman's death contributed to this, as the group tasked with selling the team made an effort to keep payroll low. I am guessing this is the first time the Royals uttered the words "youth movement," but a look at the 1995 roster especially shows a large number of veterans. Still, these two years were the first real chances for guys like Johnny Damon, Joe Randa, Michael Tucker, Jose Rosado and Jim Pittsley (with Glendon Rusch coming along in 1997). So what happened? Rosado and Pittsley ended up getting hurt, while Rusch never really lived up to his potential with the Royals. The Royals traded Randa for Jeff King and Jay Bell, then reacquired him two years later for basically nothing. They traded Tucker for Jermaine Dye. Position player-wise, they should have had a good foundation. But without Rosado and Pittsley, the pitching got old. There just wasn't enough pitching, especially in that era of inflated offense, for the Royals to succeed.

Next up, 1999 (-3.8). This group of prospects included Carlos Beltran, Jermaine Dye, Mike Sweeney, Jeremy Giambi, and Carlos Febles. But once again, the pitching failed to materialize. The only real impact hurler ended up being Jeff Suppan. If you were a Royals fan then, you probably remember 1999-2000 as a long stretch of 11-10 games, usually with the Royals' bullpen blowing a big lead. The Royals had their two best run-scoring years in 1999 and 2000, but gave up even more runs than they allowed. Once again, a lack of pitching undercut this particular youth movement.

The most recent wave of youth was in 2005 (-2.8) and 2007 (-2.3). Yet this was offset by a rise of 3.9 years in 2006. If you're reading this, I'm guessing you're familiar with this group: Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Mark Teahen, Joakim Soria, J.P. Howell, and Leo Nunez, among others. Of course, we're still seeing how this group will turn out, but you will notice two of those pitchers are already gone.

If you are a skeptical Royals fan, whether you are a diehard or a casual fan, you've earned it. The promises we've heard, the pleas for patience from three different GMs, the signings of past-their-prime free agents, all have probably been even more damaging to the fanbase than the three failed youth movements I've listed above. But this time certainly feels different to me. I don't remember the Royals' farm system getting this much attention ever before, certainly on a national level. There are good hitters and good pitchers on the way, and lots of them. I don't want to tell you to trust the process, but perhaps if you've hung in there this long, you can hang in there a little bit longer. Some of those prospects are going to reach the majors this year; my advice is to enjoy watching them develop.

Catching Up

2011-01-18T19:31:00.004-06:00

It's been a busy couple of weeks in Royals land. The 2011 starting rotation seems set now, with the addition of Jeff Francis and the re-signing of Bruce Chen. And then of course, the rather surprising retirement of Gil Meche opened up a bullpen spot, as well as gave the Royals a sudden surplus of cash.

I really like the Francis signing. It's only a one-year contract, and it's only $2 million (plus $2 million in incentives). Despite some nice seasons for the Rockies, Francis comes cheap because he has had shoulder issues. But he is entering his second year since his surgery, so there is hope that those issues are behind him. Even if they aren't, the Royals wisely invested little time and relatively little cash in him.

This is exactly the tack the Royals should be taking this offseason and in the next few. Look for low-cost players who have shown ability in the recent past but are available due to injury or underperformance. It is inevitable that even with the depth of talent in the farm system, there will be holes that need to be filled. The best example of this kind of gamble working out is Tampa Bay's signing of Carlos Pena in 2007. Pena had been on four teams in six seasons, and the Rays signed him to a one-year, $800,000 contract. A minor-league contract, even. Forty-six homers later, the Rays had the good sense to sign him to an extension. The next year, they were in the World Series.

I'm also glad the Royals brought back Chen, especially since they only signed him for one year and $2 million, plus $1.5 million in incentives. Chen was decent last year and even had the best ERA+ of any starting pitcher (his 101 was just above Zack Greinke's 100). He was a bit lucky last year, but even if he is ineffective as a starter, he has experience as a reliever and can contribute there. And if he can't contribute in either capacity, the Royals can get rid of him without much of a sunk cost in terms of dollars or time. And again, they are not blocking a spot for the long-term.

In sadder news, I was absolutely stunned to hear Meche was retiring with one year left on his contract. I don't think it's too cynical to suggest most players would go through the motions for one more year to get $12 million--it would be very tempting. I have a lot of respect for Meche, and I wish him the best. I certainly wish the Royals had been more careful with him, but let's hope they at least learned something from the experience.

Meche's departure opens up another spot in the bullpen, probably for one of the many young pitchers who are knocking on the major league door. So that's a nice benefit. Furthermore, the Royals now have an extra $12 million (what Meche was owed this year). After an Opening Day payroll of $75 million last year, the Royals will likely start this season with a payroll around half that. I couldn't believe the complaining I heard on local sports talk radio on the way home from work today. I don't see how the Royals are in a bad situation here. They are young, and likely to get younger over the next few seasons as more and more prospects reach the majors. We know they are willing and able to spend roughly $40 million more than they will this year to fill whatever needs they have. In the meantime, they can use some of that surplus to further their scouting or Latin America signing budgets. This is good news.

---------------------------------

On a totally unrelated note, I'm so glad the Royals are acknowledging their online community. For being such a crappy franchise for so long, the Royals certainly have a great base of bloggers, and they are finally recognizing that with their Digital Digest setup at this week's Fan Fest. I must confess, I was disappointed not to be chosen to participate. But I am happy for the ones who were picked and have no problem with any of the selections. I'm really looking forward to reading about their experiences.

I'm grateful that I can be a small part of such a strong blogging community. I do this mainly as a lark--I always enjoyed writing about sports for my college newspaper, and when I started this blog it was in large part because I missed the writing process. And I always love discussing the Royals and baseball in general. Personally, I would never expect (or want) to get a press credential or sit in the press box, but I am hopeful that someday soon, the really good, quality bloggers who cover the Royals (and other teams) will be included in that if they want to be. This is not to slight the traditional media outlets that normally do a good job covering the team, but more to include the talented non-traditional outlets that are also excellent sources of info and analysis.

The Past Don't Control You

2010-12-20T19:50:00.006-06:00

...But the future's like a roulette wheel spinning.
Deep down inside, you know you need a whole new beginning.
(From "Ye Shall Be Changed," The Bootleg Series Vol. 1-3)

And with that, Dayton Moore's transformation of the Royals major-league roster is complete. "That," of course, is Sunday's Zack Greinke trade. Moore took over the Royals in the middle of the 2006 season. Now the only player currently on the roster who played for the Royals in 2006 is outfielder Mitch Maier, and he only had 15 plate appearances that season.

Unfortunately, the major league results from 2006 and 2011 are likely to be similar. However, it looks more and more like the major league results from 2012 and beyond will be much better. The Greinke trade is one more building block for that future.

I think the Royals made a good trade. Not a great one, but a good one. First off, replacing Yuni Betancourt with Alcides Escobar has to be a positive. True, Escobar doesn't have the occasional power Yuni has shown. But they both posted a .288 OBP last year. While that is terrible, I'd rather have an above-average defender whose offense should improve than have, well, Yuni.

Escobar did not have a good rookie season in 2010. But he was a highly-touted prospect and is likely to improve. The good news is, if his defense is as good as advertised, he won't need to be an adept offensive player to have a positive impact. He won't be a free agent until after the 2015 season. If the Royals' scouting is correct, they have found their shortstop for the long-term. This is a good thing.

Then there's Lorenzo Cain. This is an intriguing addition to the now-crowded outfield situation. Cain hasn't shown a lot of power in the minors, but he has shown an ability to take a walk, steal some bases and play good defense in centerfield. Like Escobar, he could be a long-term solution.

I know little about the pitchers the Royals received (Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi) except that Jeffress throws hard and both were considered among the Brewers' best prospects. In the pitching-heavy Royals system, it will be interesting to see where they both rank. It is nice that both are righties, as the Royals are as stocked as can be with lefties, it seems.

Meanwhile, life without Zack will not be fun, at least probably not for a year or two. The Royals' projected rotation for 2011 is not especially promising. And let's be honest, watching Zack pitch when he was dialed in was a lot of fun. Of course, getting Zack dialed in was sometimes a problem.

I know there was a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth over this trade. There were a lot of comparisons to the Carlos Beltran trade in 2004. But to me, the most important thing to remember is that Greinke didn't want to play here anymore. Also, the Royals' farm system is light years ahead of what it was in 2004. Back then, the Royals should have taken the most talent they could get. Now, they can afford to be a little choosy. So they were. They traded a guy who didn't want to be here anymore and a guy no one wanted to be here anymore for two potential solutions at important defensive positions, a possible closer candidate someday (Jeffress) and a possible mid-rotation starter someday (Odorizzi). To me, that's a good trade for the long term. Now, I believe someday soon it will be the Royals' turn to trade prospects for an established player or two.

But Me, I Expected It To Happen

2010-12-11T16:21:00.008-06:00

(From "Stuck Inside Of Mobile With The Memphis Blues Again," Blonde On Blonde)

Of course, everyone expected it to happen. People have expected the Royals to sign Jeff Francoeur pretty much from the day Dayton Moore took over as general manager. So the fact Moore returned from the winter meetings with Francoeur and Melky Cabrera as his big offseason acquisitions was certainly no surprise.

What does surprise me is that, after years of dreading the sight of Frenchy in Royal blue, the actual news didn't bother me that much. Look, Francoeur is not a good player. He probably won't even be an average player. For his career, he's put up a 91 OPS+, and that's been almost entirely in the weaker National League. He is famous for his lack of plate discipline, which is the last thing the Royals' offense needed.

On the other hand, here we have a player who will turn 27 in January, so he is theoretically in his prime. Here we have a player who has won a Gold Glove (admittedly, Gold Gloves are not always the best measuring stick for defensive ability; on the other hand, you normally have to have some defensive skill to win one). Here we have a player who hit 29 homers one season and 19 in another one. So he does have some ability. And he is a right-handed hitter, something the Royals did need (all the other outfielders on the roster are lefties or switch-hitters).

The question is, will Francoeur be able to reclaim those abilities? I would guess no, but there is a chance. Let's face it, being a Georgia native, having a tremendous rookie year, being on the cover of Sports Illustrated--there had to be a lot of pressure on Francoeur when he was a Brave. From there, he went to the Mets, which has to be a different sort of pressure. Perhaps he can relax a bit and just play as a Royal. And really, the Royals invested very little in finding out--a one-year, $2.5 million contract. I'm not worried about the $4 million mutual option for 2012; if Francoeur is somehow good in 2011, he'll likely decline the option and be a free agent, but if he is, well, Jeff Francoeur, the Royals will likely cut bait. Heck, if he is good in 2011, he might very well be traded in July, and if Moore can match some of those good-looking trades he made this past season, Francoeur might be worth the money.

Also, the Royals' paramount concern this offseason had to be clearing the way for the promising minor-leaguers they have. On a one-year contract, Francouer is not likely to block any prospects (in fact, corner outfield might be the system's biggest weakness at the moment). Basically, he's a placeholder.

Many of these arguments can also be applied to the Royals' other free-agent addition, Melky Cabrera. He obviously has ability--you don't get to start for the Yankees at age 21 if you aren't good. He hasn't blossomed into the player he looked like he could be back then, but he just turned 26. And the Royals invested even less in him than they did Francoeur--just $1.25 million for 2011.

I don't expect either Cabrera or Francoeur to make a major impact on the 2011 Royals. It's highly unlikely these two will lead KC to an AL Central title. Really, the best-case scenario is that both play relatively well and are traded in July for more prospects. And perhaps now Dayton Moore has gotten the Francoeur bug out of his system.

Money Doesn't Talk, It Swears

2010-11-11T20:06:00.004-06:00

(from "It's Alright, Ma (I'm Only Bleeding)," Bringing It All Back Home)

In my last post, I deduced that the Royals would not have a lot of wriggle room in the payroll to make any free-agent signings this offseason. With three moves yesterday, they freed up a good $7 or $8 million. Shows what I know.

The first two moves were releasing Brian Bannister and Brian Anderson. Like any good Royals blogger, I'm quite fond of Banny. But it certainly made sense to cut ties with him. Part of Bannister's appeal was always the sense that he didn't really have outstanding talent (for a major leaguer, of course), but tried to use his intellect to maximize his performance. Unfortunately, he just wasn't able to sustain that and his lack of "extra" ability caught up to him. I'm sure most of us will miss Banny off the field, but we won't miss that 6.34 ERA he put up in 2010. Here's hoping he can catch on with an NL team in a good pitcher's park and have some success.

The Royals then traded David DeJesus to Oakland for pitcher Vin Mazzaro and minor-league pitcher Justin Marks.

I'm so underwhelmed by this trade. It was obvious there was a chance DeJesus would be dealt this winter; he's in the last year of his contract, turning 31 next month, and owed $6 million. Plus, he has been a solid, above-average player for the Royals and was really one of the few trading chips the Royals had at the major league level. Or so I thought.

This trade looks like the Royals basically were trying to cut salary. Mazzaro and Marks both project as middle-of-the-rotation guys. In a telling point about the Royals' 2011 rotation, Mazzaro might be the Number 2 guy, but that's more by default than anything he's done to deserve it. While he's still young and can improve, the facts are he has put up a 4.72 ERA in his career, which is a little more than a season's worth of games over two seasons. He doesn't strike out a lot of hitters and probably walks too many (138 Ks, 89 BBs in his career). So he's likely heavily dependent on his defense, which is a bad idea for any Royals pitcher.

So, yeah. Two guys who might be better than Kyle Davies. Very exciting. I understand the thought process behind this trade, although I still don't like it. My dislike is not so much about the guys the Royals got (although I would have expected a little more in return), but more about the next move the Royals will make...

I think we all know it's coming. Jeff Francoeur, Opening Day 2011 rightfielder. And 2012. And 2013. And we thought Jose Guillen was frustrating. I can't wait to get that .735 lifetime OPS in Royal blue! That's just what this lineup needs, another guy who's OBP barely cracks .300.

Of course, that's a worry for another day. It hasn't happened. Yet.

Gazin' To The Future

2010-10-10T22:00:00.002-05:00

...riding on the Jack of Hearts.
(From "Lily, Rosemary and the Jack of Hearts," Blood On The Tracks)

I didn't intend to go so long between posts, but sometimes things happen that way. However, in a way I'm glad I waited until now to write something, because the last two months of this season were a good opportunity to scout some of the Royals who may play key roles next year. Now that the season is over and I've had time to reflect a bit on 2010, I think the Royals are really at an organizational crossroad heading into 2011.

I think we're all familar with (and sick of) the Royals' annual parade of crappy veterans signed to one- or two-year contracts for a few million dollars. But now, with the farm system seemingly bursting with talent, the Royals have to carefully consider whether a potential addition will actually block a promising youngster. As far as I'm concerned, this is a good position to be in, certainly a better position than they've been in since probably 1999 or so. That was the wave of talent that brought Carlos Beltran, Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye, Joe Randa and Mike Sweeney to the majors. Of course, the problem there was that none of the pitchers who came up with those hitters amounted to anything in a Royals uniform. This time around, it at least looks like the Royals have good hitters and pitchers almost ready for the majors at the same time.

As such, I almost hope the Royals ignore the free-agent market this winter. There are so many players they need to evaluate in real games that I don't think they can afford to "promise" some 34-year-old has-been playing time.

Look around the diamond for proof. At first base, the Royals need to figure out if Kila Ka'aihue's minor league hitting numbers will translate to the bigs. Meanwhile, they need to figure out if they can live with Billy Butler's glove, and if Butler's doubles power (96 over the last two seasons) will develop into home run power. And they need to do this before Eric Hosmer is thrown into the mix. At second base, they need to see if Chris Getz offers anything positive, or if Mike Aviles' strong September means his 2008 bat might come back. At shortstop, they need to figure out if Yuniesky Betancourt's career year (with a sterling 88 OPS+!!!) signals the start of the most amazing career turnaround in baseball history (spoiler alert: no). At third base, they need to figure out whether Josh Fields or Wilson Betemit are worth keeping after Mike Moustakas makes his debut (probably sometime next year).

And then there are questions in center field, at catcher, and in the bullpen and starting rotation. I think the only starting jobs that are assured for everyday players on Opening Day 2011 are David DeJesus in right field and Alex Gordon in left field. And Yuni, of course.

Of course, the Royals might be hamstrung this offseason by payroll concerns. Assuming the Royals want to keep their payroll in the $70-75 million range it was at for each of the last two seasons, there is little wiggle room. Even taking Jose Guillen's $12 million off the ledger doesn't help, because Zack Greinke gets a big raise ($7.25 million to $13.5 million), plus various other raises and arbitration cases figure to eat up the rest of that surplus.

Here are the players the Royals have under contract for 2011 and their salaries:

Greinke, $13.5 million
Gil Meche, $12.4 million
DeJesus, $6 million
Betancourt, $4.375 million ($1.375 to be paid by Seattle)
Joakim Soria, $4 million
Jason Kendall, $3.75 million
Noel Arguelles, $1.38 million
Aaron Crow, $1 million
Juan Cruz, $500,000

That's $45 million right there. Awesomely, thanks to injuries and ineffectiveness, the Royals will probably get very little production from the last four names on that list. (Kendall probably won't play until after the All-Star Break, and probably won't be useful anyways; Arguelles missed the entire 2010 season after shoulder surgery and I have a hard time imagining him in the majors before September; Crow was not good this year and was demoted to Class A Wilmington; Cruz was released back in April.) Then there's Meche, who apparently will be a relief pitcher next year. The Royals are going to be paying him $12.4 million to pitch 70 innings or so next year. Let's hope this will teach the Royals a lesson about overworking pitchers. While Meche looked good as a reliever at the end of this season, and will probably help the bullpen next year, you just can't sink that much cash into a setup man when you're the Royals.

Then there are the arbitration-eligible players. The Royals haven't actually had an arbitration case in years--it seems to be an organizational policy to avoid them. This is probably a good idea, since those hearings can't be a lot of fun for player or team. The Royals have eight eligible players: Brian Bannister, Billy Butler, Kyle Davies, Josh Fields, Alex Gordon, Luke Hochevar, Brayan Pena and Robinson Tejeda. Sadly, I don't think Banny will be back. Butler is entering arbitration for the first time; I expect him to get a large raise from the $470,000 he made this season. Davies will probably make around $2.3 million. Fields and Pena are also eligible for the first time; they'll probably combine for around $1.25 million or so. Gordon and Hochevar will probably crack $2 million each, and Tejeda will probably be around $1.5 million. So that's about $12 million for seven players, or maybe $15 million if they do keep Bannister.

The rest of the roster will likely be players making around the league minimum. That's 12 or 13 spots, so maybe $6 million or so. All told, that's about $66 million for the complete roster. And that's not including free agent-to-be Bruce Chen, who I would like to see brought back if he can be signed inexpensively.

Here's what I would guess the 2011 roster will look like on Opening Day:

Starting pitchers: Greinke, Hochevar, Chen, Davies, Sean O'Sullivan
Relief pitchers: Soria, Meche, Tejeda, Blake Wood, Dusty Hughes, Tim Collins, Kanekoa Texeira
Infielders: Butler, Ka'aihue, Getz, Aviles, Betancourt, Fields, Betemit
Outfielders: Gordon, DeJesus, Gregor Blanco, Mitch Maier
Catchers: Pena, Lucas May

This gives me a lineup of:
Blanco CF
Getz/Aviles 2B
DeJesus RF
Butler 1B/DH
Ka'aihue 1B/DH
Betemit/Fields 3B
Gordon LF
Betancourt SS
Pena C

This team is not terrible, in my opinion. The starting pitching isn't very good, but I think the bullpen would be better than the 2010 version. This should at least be a more interesting team to watch, without a bunch of crappy veterans to annoy us. It will be interesting to see if the Royals even try the free agent market, or if they begin looking for trade possibilities for the future.

In the meantime, I'll be around to comment on any moves the Royals make in the offseason, and I have some ideas for different features to get us through the winter.

Exchanging All Kinds Of Precious Gifts And Things

2010-08-01T11:00:00.001-05:00

(From "Like A Rolling Stone," Highway 61 Revisited)

We may look back on July 2010 as one of the pivotal moments in Royals history. Many observers (myself included) were baffled when the Royals signed pitcher Kyle Farnsworth before the 2009 season and outfielders Scott Podsednik and Rick Ankiel prior to this season. And many observers (myself included) were taken aback by the Royals' early-season decision to move Alex Gordon off third base and hand the position to Alberto Callaspo while Gordon was sent to Omaha to become an outfielder. But, in a 10-day period, general manager Dayton Moore turned those two over-30 outfielders, that over-30 relief pitcher, and a 27-year-old infielder who was going to qualify for arbitration (and the big raise that goes with it) after the season into four pitchers, one catcher and one outfielder. Also, the Royals made it official that Ned Yost would be managing the team through 2012 at the least. These four moves have made it clear that the Royals are finally starting to bank on the coming wave of prospects for future success.

Let's look at these moves individually.

July 22: Callaspo is traded to the Angels for right-handed pitcher Sean O'Sullivan and left-handed pitcher Will Smith. O'Sullivan joined the major-league rotation immediately and Smith was sent to Class A Wilmington. While O'Sullivan has not exactly been 2009 Zack Greinke in his two starts, he must have done something right to be in the Angels' rotation at age 22. Meanwhile, Smith was rather oddly bounced around the Angels' system, spending time at all three levels. Smith is only 21.

In essentially two seasons worth with the Royals, Callaspo showed himself to be a decent hitter and third baseman (but a below-average second baseman). But nothing more. He was probably going to go from making $460,000 to north of $2 million next year. And oh yeah, that Moustakas kid is already in Omaha and will almost certainly be given every opportunity to win the third-base job next year.

Remember, when the Royals were shopping Callaspo in the offseason, the strongest rumor out there was that he would net a minor catching prospect in return. Now, after he put up worse offensive numbers than he did last year, he netted not one, but two young pitchers. Pitchers who may or may not ever develop into useful major leaguers, but have the chance to do so.

July 28: Podsednik is traded to the Dodgers for pitcher Elisaul Pimentel and catcher Lucas May. Pimentel was assigned to Class A Burlington while May was sent to Omaha.

Podsednik was having a good season. But he was likely going to be a free agent after the year (his contract had an option for 2011, but it could be voided with 525 plate appearances) and who knows what would have happened then. Given that, it is amazing that the Royals were able to trade him for not one, but two prospects.

Pimentel just turned 22 and has been impressive in A ball (97 Ks in 90 innings with only 35 walks, for example). Meanwhile, May put up impressive offensive numbers at the high altitude of Albuquerque. May might not be more than a backup catcher at the major league level, but the Royals' farm system, despite its' excellent 2010 season, probably still needed some more depth at the position. Plus, this is only May's fourth season as a catcher after moving from shortstop, so there is always the chance his development may take off, although he is 25.

Once again, the Royals turned one piece (and one who had basically no chance of being part of a good Royals team) into two potentially useful major leaguers.

July 31: Ankiel and Farnsworth are traded to the Braves for Gregor Blanco, Jesse Chavez and Tim Collins. Ankiel and Farnsworth had even less chance of being part of a good Royals team than Podsednik did. Farnsworth will be a free agent after the season and the mutual option on Ankiel's contract for next year probably would have been dropped by one of the parties.

Blanco is a 26-year-old outfielder who will join the major-league club. After a decent rookie season in 2008, he has struggled a bit in part-time play. Still, looking at his numbers, he looks like a player who is willing to take a walk, play a decent outfield at all three spots, and put up a decent batting average with little power. He's probably a fourth outfielder, but that's OK.

Chavez is also 26 and has struggled this year after a serviceable 2009 with Pittsburgh. It's unlikely he will make a major impact for the Royals, but he has shown ability before.

Make no mistake, though, Collins is the centerpiece of this trade for the Royals. Although he's only 5-7 and 155 pounds, Collins apparently has a powerful left arm. In 41 games (all relief appearances) at Class AA this season, he has 87 strikeouts in 51 innings.

Let me emphasize that: 87. Strikeouts. In. 51. Innings. And only 19 walks. And he's only 20.

The Royals are assigning Collins to Omaha for now. It will be interesting to watch how his strikeout rate fares at a higher level of competition. It will also be interesting to watch how soon he gets a chance with the major league team.

July 31: Royals announce two-year contract extension with Ned Yost.

I like Yost. Sure, like any manager, he does things that drive me crazy (batting Jason Kendall second seems to be the leader in this category). But overall, I think Yost is at least an average manager, and he does seem to be a good fit for a team that intends to break in lots of young, talented players at the same time. It's a little strange to me that the extension is only through 2012--that would seem to be the first year the Royals could reasonably expect to show real improvement. I presume that if there is evidence of real improvement, there will be another extension soon.

The only way the Royals could have had a better two weeks as a franchise would be if they had found a way to trade Jose Guillen. Moore has publicly stated his intention to bring Kila Ka'aihue up and get him real playing time this time, but it will be tough to do that until Guillen is gone. However, Guillen should easily clear waivers and could still be traded soon. And really, anything they get for him is a bonus. The real benefit is getting playing time for Kila.

Once that is done, I believe that will signal the end of the first rebuilding phase. It looks like the Royals are finally set on giving promising young players a real chance to play. It's about time.

2012: Who Will Represent The Royals?

2010-06-19T10:04:00.006-05:00

As you surely know by now, Kansas City will be hosting the 2012 All-Star Game. Sure, there are ill-informed people bashing the choice, but I'm excited. I'm confident KC will put on a good show and all those east coast elitists will be...well, they probably wouldn't admit being impressed, but at least satisfied. I doubt they'll die of boredom out here in flyover country, anyway.

OK, enough good old-fashioned Kansas City inferiority complex. There is too much to be excited about...2012 figures to be an interesting year for Royals fans. We should be beginning to see all that talent at Northwest Arkansas reach the majors and hopefully start to contribute. Meanwhile, with the big contracts of Jose Guillen and Gil Meche off the books, there is a chance for the Royals to add an important free-agent piece, as well. Throw in the fact that 2012 is the last season of Zack Greinke's current contract, and suddenly it looms as a very important year for the franchise.

So, who will represent the Royals in the 2012 All-Star Game? That player (or players) will be seen as the face of a franchise that (we can only hope) will be seen as on the rise. Here are my candidates, with what I think are the odds they will be selected. Please note, I am not a gambler, so these odds should be taken with an entire salt shaker.

Zack Greinke: Probably the best-known Royal to baseball fans across the country. An actual star after his Cy Young Award last year. And you can never have too many pitchers on the All-Star teams in case the game goes 20 innings. Possible complication: that pesky business about his contract being up after 2012. Will he still be a Royal in July 2012? Or will they feel the need to trade him? Odds: 2-1.

Joakim Soria: As I said, you can never have too many pitchers in this game. And it's nice to have some relief pitchers on the staff. If Zack is still getting the run support in 2012 he's received this year, Soria might end up being the choice. Odds: 3-1.

Billy Butler: First base is a loaded position, especially in the American League. Billy has a chance at an All-Star nod this year, so that might help him be on the radar in two years. But he has to overcome Miguel Cabrera, Paul Konerko and Justin Morneau, and that's just in his own division. Odds: 5-1.

Alex Gordon: I'm not hopping off this bandwagon. This is a rant for another day, but I seriously cannot believe Gordon is being allowed to put up a 1.100 OPS in Omaha while Scott Podsednik puts up a .689 in the majors. For comparison purposes, Miguel Cabrera leads the AL with a 1.056 OPS. I'd be willing to live with the occasional error as Gordon "learns to play left field" (seriously, is it that difficult?) in the majors to get that bat in the lineup. Anyway, the average AL left fielder this year has a .759 OPS. Alex put up a .735 in his rookie year and a .783 in 2008. He still figures to improve offensively, as he's only 26. Odds: 10-1.

Kila Ka'aihue: Currently putting up a 1.105 OPS in Omaha. Yep, even better than Alex Gordon. Kila has to overcome the same group of first basemen that Butler has to, plus Kila has to overcome Billy Butler. And the Royals' bizarre reluctance to give him a chance. Odds: 25-1.

Luke Hochevar: It looked like the light was starting to come on before his last start, which we now know was cut short by elbow soreness. With the old Royals' training staff, I would have expected the "sprained elbow" to become Tommy John surgery within months, but I think we're in better hands now. Anyway, if the Royals can improve their infield defense before the 2012 season, this ground-ball pitcher might have a chance. Odds: 40-1.

Mike Moustakas: Hey, Evan Longoria did it in his rookie season! Odds: 50-1.

Mike Aviles: The Royals will keep looking for middle infielders to replace this guy until they find one who can hit over .210. Age is working against him, though--he will be 31 when the 2012 season starts. Odds: 60-1.

David DeJesus: Probably won't even be a Royal in 2012, although he seems like he would be willing to re-sign with the team after his contract is up in 2011. But he might be too expensive, especially for a guy who will turn 32 after that 2011 season. Too bad, he's a fan favorite who would have ESPN on his jock if he played for the Yankees or Red Sox. Oh wait, I was going to stop the inferiority complex. Sorry about that. Odds: 75-1.

Yuniesky Betancourt: No.

I'm Just Sittin' On The Shelf

2010-06-05T15:58:00.007-05:00

(From "All Over You")

Are the Royals using their bench enough?

I think the notion of a "set lineup" is not very realistic. Most players need a day of rest here and there, plus injuries--even if they are minor--are almost inevitable over 6 months of baseball. And normally catchers do not play day games after night games. So, while there are certainly regulars and a batting order that gets used the most, it is unlikely that a team will run the same order out there more than 20-25 times in a season. This is probably even truer in the American League, where a team can give that slugging outfielder or first baseman a game at DH and "rest" him that way.

But the Royals, with one-third of the season gone, seem intent on turning that conventional wisdom on its head. Maybe they've decided using the same nine players every day is the new market inefficiency.

This isn't a sermon on which batting order the Royals should use. Lots of studies by smarter people than me have decided that lineup order doesn't greatly effect a team's offensive output. The Royals could probably help themselves there by hitting David DeJesus first and Mike Aviles second.

No, this is more about the Royals basically ignoring Brayan Pena this season. Or about Mitch Maier needing Rick Ankiel's injury to get a chance. Or a mindset that keeps Kila Ka'aihue in Omaha.

In 56 games this season before Saturday, the Royals have used a batting order of Podsednik, Aviles, DeJesus, Butler, Guillen, Callaspo, Maier, Betancourt, Kendall a total of 10 times. I could say in 21 games this season, since Ned Yost went with that order in his first four games as manager, and he has been responsible for all 10 of those uses. You have to go back to 1989 to find an order the Royals used more frequently in one season (and that order was used 14 times).

I should add that I don't have major objections to that lineup. I would move Aviles to shortstop and put Chris Getz in at second base, but it's obvious the Royals love them some Yuniesky Betancourt. And hey, Yuni hasn't been a complete train wreck on offense so far this season. He even has managed to get his Ultimate Zone Rating up to 0.0 instead of last year's horrific -11.4. The problem is, this is probably about the best we can ever expect from Betancourt, and it's essentially a league-average shortstop.

Anyway, not only do the Royals use the same batting order every night, it seems like they are intent on having a team full of Cal Ripkens--playing every inning of every game. The Royals have six of the top 50 AL players in innings played. No one else has that many. Jason Kendall leads all AL catchers in innings played by a wide margin (65). He has been in there for 92.2% of all innings the Royals have played. That seems odd for a 36-year-old catcher. As a result of this, we still don't know if Brayan Pena can be a useful major league catcher. Sure, he hasn't played particularly well when he's been in there, but it might be tough to find a groove when you play 39 innings in two months.

To be fair, Kendall has been decent. He has no power, but he's done a decent job of getting on base. Defensively, he has at least helped the Royals cut down significantly on the wild pitches and passed balls that were such problems last year. The team has gone from 89 and 14 in 2009 to 17 and 2 this season, respectively. And he is throwing at basestealers at the same rate (25%) as Royals catchers did last year. I would just like to see Pena get more of a shot.

All over the field, there are Royals who have played practically every out this season. Alberto Callaspo has played 97.8% of the team's innings; he would be third in the AL at third base if he hadn't played 99 innings at second base. Billy Butler has played 97.4% of the innings; he is third in the league for first basemen. Scott Podsednik (91.8%, second in the league in left field), Betancourt (91.6%, 6th in the league at shortstop) and David DeJesus (91.2%, fifth in the league in right field) are all in the top 50 overall in innings. Even Jose Guillen has gotten in the act, starting 55 of the 56 games and pinch-hitting (and playing right field) in the other one.

Part of the problem is the Royals' insistence on carrying eight relief pitchers, which they have done for a good chunk of this season. Even now, with a more normal seven relievers, they don't have a true backup at first base, nor do they have anyone on the bench who you would want to give Guillen a day off at DH. This is where Ka'aihue could help. Like most Royals fans, I want to see Kila get a shot, a real shot, at the major league level. Although if the Royals are going to keep using their current philosophy of lineup management, perhaps he is better served getting regular playing time at Omaha. Still, as a left-handed hitter, he would be a nice option to have on the bench.

My main worry is that these guys will crash sometime in August if they don't get a day off here and there. I'm not calling for Willie Bloomquist or Wilson Betemit to get more playing time; in fact, I think the Royals are doing a better job this year of not overusing Bloomquist. It just seems to me that a bench of Kila, Bloomquist, Pena, Getz/Betancourt and an outfielder from Omaha (either David Lough or Jordan Parraz; the Royals have said they want to keep Alex Gordon there to keep working on being an outfielder, and I'm inclined to agree with that idea) would give Yost the ability to give everyone a little rest, plus some lineup and strategic flexibility.

It's All Over Now, Baby Blue

2010-05-15T10:24:00.003-05:00

Well, that was sudden.

I think we all knew Trey Hillman would not be the Royals' manager for long, it was just a question of how long he would last. I admit I was surprised when Hillman was fired Thursday afternoon (or to be technical, when it was announced Thursday afternoon)--I figured he would last for a few more weeks, and there was even a good chance he'd finish out the year and his contract, then not brought back next year.

I don't take joy in anyone losing their job, but Hillman needed to go. When the Royals hired him, I really thought he had a chance to be a success. But I was wrong; I greatly underestimated the need for a manager to have spent some time in the majors as a player or coach before taking over a major league team. That sort of experience doesn't guarantee success, but it now seems obvious it helps give even a rookie manager some credibility. Looking back, it is apparent Hillman lost most of his team almost before his tenure even started, and I believe ultimately that doomed him as a manager. And then there were the odd strategic decisions, the irrational desire to use sacrifice bunts, and the inability to stand up to veteran players (letting Gil Meche talk him into leaving Meche in games, letting Jason Kendall play everyday, etc.), among Hillman's other failings.

I am OK with the Royals hiring Ned Yost as Hillman's replacement. Yost will probably never be confused with John McGraw, but he has played, coached and managed in the majors, and has even had some success (let's discuss that in a minute).

Ultimately, however, a manager is only as good as the players he's given. I do believe the Royals have more talent than their current 13-23 record shows, but not a lot more. Even if Hillman had managed every game perfectly this year (by which I mean, chosen the best option when he picked a relief pitcher or pinch hitter, or picked the right time to steal or bunt or whatever), how many more wins would that be worth? Three? Four? Whatever it would be, I'm sure it wouldn't be enough to vault the Royals into contention. For example, look at the May 6 game in Texas--Hillman brings in his best reliever (Joakim Soria) to hold a 1-run lead in the 8th inning. I suppose you could argue that Hillman should have let Robinson Tejeda, who had looked good getting the first two out in the inning, finish the job. But I think every Royals fan probably felt good about Soria coming in with a 1-run lead. Two homers later, the Royals had another loss.

That said, I believe one area where a manager can make a difference is in setting the atmosphere and mood of the team. At any level of baseball, it is impossible to play well if you are pressing too much or trying too hard. So I can only imagine what it's like for players at the highest level of the sport when they find themselves in a pennant race in September. And this is an area where Yost apparently failed in his previous managerial stint--the Brewers fired him with 12 games left in the 2008 season, as they desperately tried to hold on to a playoff spot. That Brewers team started September with the second-best record in the NL, 4.5 games behind the division-leading Cubs and with a 5.5 game lead in the wild-card race. They proceeded to go 3-11 over the next two weeks and blow the entire wild-card lead. That's when the Brewers replaced Yost, and they were able to capture the wild-card spot.

I suppose the bright side here is that the Royals are a long ways away from any sort of playoff contention. And to be fair, I think Yost deserves some credit for leading the Brewers' young talent from a 106-loss season the year before he took over to the brink of a playoff spot. It just looks to me that, based on history, if Yost helps the Royals get to playoff contention, they may need to find someone else to finish the job. For now, though, the emphasis should remain the same: getting young, talented players to the majors ready to play, and then put them in position to succeed. Yost is supposed to be good at this part of the job. We will see.

Never Bein’ Able To Separate The Good From The Bad

2010-05-05T19:37:00.003-05:00

(From “Dead Man, Dead Man,” Shot of Love)

I find it funny (funny strange not funny ha-ha) sometimes that, in most aspects of life, I tend to be a pessimist. Yet, when it comes to the Kansas City Royals, an organization that has spent 20-some years screwing up the most basic decisions, a franchise that invariably chooses the worst option possible, I tend to be an optimist. I don’t know why this is, although I suspect it’s partially human nature and partially a coping mechanism.

I started writing this post on Tuesday, and was going to write about how that optimism may have finally met its match in the last week. I was ready to blast the Royals for trading Omaha relief pitcher Carlos Rosa to Arizona for shortstop prospect Rey Navarro, because I felt Rosa had a chance to help the Royals’ bullpen in the short-term. Meanwhile, Navarro will start his journey up the Royals’ ladder at Class A Wilmington. Also, while I admit I’m no expert on the minor leagues, the people who seem to be experts don’t seem to have a consensus on Navarro’s future, except he’s not much of a hitter. Then again, he’s only 20. While I know the Royals are not contenders this year, it would be nice to win as many games as possible, and I’d rather have found out if Rosa could help the bullpen than see the Royals waste money on another “big name” relief pitcher, like Kyle Farnsworth.

I also was going to blast the Royals for their handling of Alex Gordon. After giving him 12 whole games this year to prove himself, the #2 overall pick in the 2005 draft was sent to Omaha (bright spot: Mike Aviles finally gets called up and, hopefully, given an actual chance to play this time). Then came the real bombshell: the announcement that Gordon would be learning to play left field and first base at Omaha.

I don’t understand why the Royals seem to have it in for Gordon. I’m afraid they are going to start jerking him around much like they did with Mark Teahen, giving him a new position to learn every year, then wondering why he never hits like they think he should. I don’t know that there is a correlation between changing defensive positions and subpar offense, but I don’t think it helps a player concentrate on offense when he is constantly learning a new defensive position. It’s true that Gordon will probably never be a superstar like we all hoped, but he can still be a valuable major league third baseman (assuming he can stay healthy, which has certainly been a problem). Let’s not forget, he posted a 109 OPS+ when he was 24.

But here comes that stupid optimism again. My mind begins to entertain the possibilities…if Gordon can work himself into an acceptable defender in left field, I think he will hit well enough to be a contributor (for comparison, David DeJesus had a .781 OPS and 106 OPS+ as a left fielder last year, and in Gordon’s last full season, he had a .783 OPS and that 109 OPS+). Now you’re looking at a 2011 outfield of Gordon, Rick Ankiel (or Mitch Maier, if the Royals decline to bring Ankiel back), and DeJesus. Not too shabby.

And then, even more optimism. Have the Royals decided to give Mike Aviles a real shot at reclaiming his shortstop position? When he started the season on the major league roster, he got two token appearances. This time around, he waits one day, then gets a start (a productive one, with three hits and a homer). Miracle of miracles, he gets another start the next day. I think we all know that a healthy Aviles is going to hit much better than Yuniesky Betancourt, and probably field better too. The question now is, will the Royals let him prove that? An infield of Billy Butler, Chris Getz, Aviles and Alberto Callaspo is also not too shabby. And that doesn’t include Mike Moustakas, who has been tearing up the Texas League in Class AA and could conceivably be ready for his major league debut next year.

Finally, the cherry on top of this optimism sundae: after Ankiel went on the disabled list, the Royals actually called up Kila Ka’aihue for something more than a September appearance. I don’t know that he will play regularly, or even that the Royals will keep him in the majors after Ankiel comes off the DL. But I take this as a sign that he has finally made an impression on the Royals—after all, they could have easily called up an outfielder (or another relief pitcher). It would be nice to find out for sure if Kila can hit in the majors, as he could be a very affordable replacement for Jose Guillen next season.

Sigh. Perhaps one of these days I will finally get the optimism out of my system and join reality. Until then, though, I guess I will keep hoping for the best.

Did I Hear Someone Tell A Lie?

2010-04-10T20:53:00.005-05:00

...did I hear someone's distant cry?
(from "Love Sick," Time Out Of Mind)

“I feel like if you start mixing and matching too early it sends a bad message"--Trey Hillman, on changes to the lineup, as quoted in Saturday's Kansas City Star.

Five games into the season, and I'm already questioning Trey Hillman's player usage. While his quote above may not technically be a lie, I do think it's a questionable statement, based on Hillman's past tendencies. I also think it's a huge disservice to the Royals' offense, which everyone knew coming into the season would be a problem. While five games is certainly a small sample size, the Royals as a team are hitting .265/.324/.392 and have scored only 17 runs.

Meanwhile, we're still waiting for the Royals' two best hitters in spring training, Mike Aviles and Mitch Maier, to make their first starts of the season. In fact, the two of them have only combined for one plate appearance--Aviles pinch-hit in the 9th inning Saturday night. It's true that spring training stats usually don't mean much, but Aviles hit .471 in 51 spring at-bats and Maier hit .475 in 59 at-bats. More importantly, each seemed to be hitting every ball hard, which is really all you can ask of a batter. As the Royals headed north to start the season, it looked like they had two somewhat surprising offensive leaders.

Now, here we are, almost a week into the season, and these two (as well as backup catcher Brayan Pena, who hit .302 in spring training) haven't started one game. Maier and Pena haven't even been in a game yet, which is especially odd in Pena's case, since 36-year-old catcher Jason Kendall was allowed to start a day game after a night game. Aviles hasn't had more than one at-bat in a game since April 1. Obviously Aviles and Maier won't hit for those averages over a full season, but one has to wonder what the lack of playing time will do to their timing at the plate. Hillman may have already torpedoed these three players' offensive seasons by not getting them involved before now.

In Maier's case, it's a little easier to see why he hasn't played yet. Even with his great spring, Maier was likely going to be a fourth outfielder. And Rick Ankiel has been the Royals' best offensive weapon so far, while Scott Podsednik and David DeJesus have both been at least solid hitters. However, Jose Guillen has started off slowly as the DH, so perhaps Maier could have helped a little more there.

As for Aviles, it's true he is still getting his arm strength back after Tommy John surgery last year. But his spring training effort certainly made it look like 2008 Mike Aviles was back. You might remember that guy--he put up a .325/.354/.480 line after finally forcing his way into the lineup in early June. A Royals team that had been 23-37 before that day went 52-50 the rest of the season. You'd think Hillman would remember that, since he was the guy who rather begrudgingly put Aviles in the lineup to begin with. That was only after Tony Pena Jr. had finally proven to everyone (the Royals of course being the last ones to realize it) that he could not hit. Then Esteban German was given a few starts at shortstop--when he didn't hit right away, it was finally Aviles' chance.

Now Aviles is sitting behind Yuniesky Betancourt, who has proven to everyone (except, of course, the Royals) that he can't hit, his Opening Day homer notwithstanding. If the Royals don't want to play him because they think he can't throw from shortstop, then he really should be in Omaha getting regular duty. If they want him on the major league roster, they need to find a place to play him. Chris Getz and Alberto Callaspo have both hit pretty well, but Aviles needs to be playing.

It would be nice to see Pena get a shot, too. Kendall has hit .313 so far, but he has little power. We saw last year that Pena can hit for power, and this lineup could certainly use it. I know the Royals don't think much of Pena's defense and love Kendall for his, but right now this offense needs some help. And why is a 36-year-old allowed to catch a day game after a night game, even in the first week of the season?

Last year, Hillman waited two whole games before shuffling up his lineup. In 2008, he changed things up in the 5th game. In two 162-game seasons as manager, Hillman has used 134 lineups (in 2008) and 141 (in 2009). And suddenly he's a spokesman for lineup consistency? I don't get it. I just don't get it.

Talking To Myself In A Monologue

2010-04-03T15:16:00.005-05:00

(from "Highlands," Time Out Of Mind)

Here we are, less than 48 hours from the beginning of the 2010 season. I don't know quite why, but after a winter's worth of doubt about the direction of the entire Royals organization, in the last week or so I've had a growing sense of...well, maybe not optimism, but encouragement. This is despite the fact my previous post quite obviously jinxed at least two of the players (Robinson Tejeda and Alex Gordon) I was hoping would make big contributions to the Royals this season. And I should add right up front that I harbor no illusions that this Royals team will contend for a division title. So maybe "cautious encouragement" would be a better term. Besides, everyone ought to have a little optimism before the season starts.

Having said that, I know there's a very good chance that, sometime in June maybe, I'll be wondering how I ever allowed myself to have any optimism about this team. So, for posterity's sake, here's how I talked myself into being cautiously encouraged about the state of Royals baseball in 2010...

First, start with the lineup. It's true that the Royals hardly look like an offensive juggernaut heading into the season. There are still not enough high-OBP guys on the roster, and there aren't enough power hitters, either. But this spring did see two players who contributed little last year look like they could be helpful this year: Mike Aviles and Mitch Maier. Aviles is still recovering from the Tommy John surgery he had last year, so he may not play regularly until his throwing arm is strong enough for everyday duty at shortstop. But it certainly looks like his bat is back where it was in 2008. If he really is going to hit that well again, it would help the Royals immensely. Not only would they have a productive bat at shortstop, they would be removing perhaps their worst offensive player (Yuniesky Betancourt) from the lineup.

In Maier's case, this could be the continuation of his minor league career pattern, where he makes a substantial improvement in his second year at each level. Maier probably won't be starter, but he can certainly contribute as a fourth outfielder. If I were managing the team, it would be very tempting to stick him in Scott Podsednik's starting spot and see how he responds. Get Alex Gordon back healthy, stick Alberto Callaspo at DH (or, if you think you can live with his defense, put him at 2B), and suddenly you have a respectable-looking lineup, maybe something like this:

DeJesus LF
Aviles SS
Callaspo DH
Butler 1B
Ankiel CF
Gordon 3B
Maier RF
Kendall C
Getz 2B

Of course, this brings up the question of what to do with Jose Guillen. In my perfect world, the Royals would eat his salary, trade him for whatever they can get, and call up Kila Ka'aihue from Omaha to provide better production for much less money. However, in reality the Royals are probably stuck with Guillen for this season. We'll all have to hope that the last year of his contract provides some sort of extra motivation, although I admit I'm worried that if he does have a good season, the Royals will be interested in re-signing him.

Anyway, if you stick Guillen at DH and move Callaspo to second, now you just have one real dead spot in the lineup--catcher, which can be filled by Brayan Pena if you can live with his defensive shortcomings. If you just have to have Kendall in there, well, at least most teams in baseball wish they had more offense at that spot.

As for the pitching staff, I think it's the one area where Royals fans don't need much convincing to be optimistic. Obviously, there are question marks there, too, but I think most people would say the starting pitching is the strength of this team. Get a couple of relievers to step up and suddenly the bullpen looks decent in front of Joakim Soria.

Of course, much of this cautious optimism is based on players staying healthy. But even if they don't, I think the AAA Omaha roster is in much better shape to provide short-term help than it was last year.

In this spring training, the Royals had young players who had good showings, but still did not make the major league roster. Guys like outfielder Jordan Parraz and relief pitcher Blake Wood. Because the Royals have players like that in Omaha, ready to replace the inevitable injured or poor-performing major leaguer, they should not have to sign a Ryan Freel off the street. A Parraz or David Lough or Jarrod Dyson may never be a star, but they can at least be an inexpensive fill-in who can contribute a little bit offensively. Frankly, I wouldn't be too upset if the Royals simply cut some of the overpriced, underperforming vets from the big league club and used some of these players instead. We already know what Kyle Farnsworth can do in the majors. Why not find out what Blake Wood can do? But that's a rant for another day.

Along those lines, I do feel like the Royals are moving ahead slowly as an organization. The first wave of "Dayton Moore prospects" are finally reaching the AA level. Even with Danny Duffy walking away from baseball, the Royals do seem to have quite a bit of pitching talent in the minors. And while there will certainly be disappointments in that group of prospects, there is also the opportunity to trade some of that surplus for needs elsewhere. I'm excited to see how it shakes out over the next few years.

So, feeling the cautious optimism yet? Look, I'm not going to predict a division title here, or even in the next few years. I don't foresee a winning record this year and probably not next year, either, unless the Royals do something drastic in the next 12 months. However, I do think that we Royals fans have (justifiably) become a very pessismistic fanbase. For some reason, I tend to be a sports optimist. Or maybe I'm just a contrarian. Either way, I though I would throw these thoughts out there for argument's sake, if nothing else.

Skies Are Gray

2010-02-14T16:13:00.006-06:00

...I'm looking for anything that will bring a happy glow
(From "Can't Wait," Time Out Of Mind)

Oh look, it's snowing again outside the Tangled Up HQ here in Overland Park. This winter seems like it's lasted forever and may never end. And I doubt any Royals fan out there really believes, deep down, that this team can contend for a division title in 2010.

But pitchers and catchers report to Surprise, Arizona for the beginning of spring training on Wednesday. Some guys (notably Zack Greinke and Joakim Soria) are already there. Spring really is on the way. So now, let's try a little optimism. There will be plenty of time for pessimism once the season starts. Please note, I don't believe all of this will happen this season. In a six-month season, no team ever has everything go right, even a loaded team like the Red Sox or Yankees. Also note, I'm ignoring for now the Royals' three most promising players for this season--for the purposes of this discussion, I'm going to presume Greinke will be dominant again, Soria will be in top form, and Billy Butler will continue to be one of baseball's best young hitters.

With those caveats in mind, here are four players whom I feel could greatly exceed expectations this year. And if they do, this Royals team could be much better than anyone thinks.

1. Alex Gordon. It sure feels like we've been waiting forever for him to become George Brett 2.0. I do agree that it's highly unlikely he will ever reach that plateau, but he could certainly become an asset to the Royals' offense. Gordon's 2009 season was torpedoed by injury almost from the get-go. Still, in the 49 games he did get to play in, he did post a .324 OBP. That's not great, but it was much better than his .232 BA. If Gordon had put up, say, a .260 BA, his OBP would have climbed to .350 or so. And don't forget, that .324 OBP was better than several guys the Royals gave many more plate appearances to: Miguel Olivo, Yuniesky Betancourt, Willie Bloomquist and two guys the Royals gave a pile of money to solely for their hitting ability, Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs.

If Gordon had walked at the same rate he did last year for as many plate appearances as Butler had, he would have led the team in walks (by a wide margin) with 75. My hope is that Gordon is really beginning to master the strike zone at the MLB level, and that increased power numbers will follow. As it is, when he was healthy for most of the season in 2008, he did post a 109 OPS+ and a .783 OPS. Gordon just turned 26 a few days ago, so he should be entering the prime of his career. If he's ever going to make the sort of leap Butler made last year, now is the time.

2. Luke Hochevar. Here's the other Royals' top draft pick whose stardom we've seemingly been waiting on forever. Like Gordon, Hochevar may never reach the level we hoped for when he was drafted, or the level you would expect from his lofty draft slot. But if he could become a solid #3 or even #2 starter, the Royals would have a rotation that any AL Central team would envy.

Oddly, nearly all of Hochevar's numbers trended downward from his rookie season in 2008 to 2009. Yet, he showed real flashes of brilliance last season. There was the 80-pitch complete game win over Cincinnati, the 13-strikeout game against Texas, and the complete-game shutout of the Chicago White Sox. Obviously, no pitcher is going to throw like that every time out. But there was some evidence that Hochevar has the ability to be an above-average major league pitcher.

For one thing, Hochevar's BB/9 and K/9 ratios both improved from 2008 to 2009. While we only have two seasons' worth of data, it would seem that Hochevar is also figuring out the strike zone at the MLB level. This is possibly more important for him than any other Royals starter, because Hochevar is a sinkerball pitcher, and therefore more dependent on the infield defense behind him to make plays. The more strikeouts he can get reduces the number of batted balls in play, and the number of those that get through the infield for hits.

Which brings us to another reason to hope Hochevar can break out in 2010--the hope that the Royals' infield defense will be better. Although they need to find a place for his bat, the Royals are best served by finding Alberto Callaspo a defensive spot far away from the middle of the infield now that they have Chris Getz to play second. And if Mike Aviles can come back from his injury and reclaim the shortstop job from Betancourt, suddenly the Royals might be at least passable defensively. It seems simple, but just having decent infielders who can catch ground balls would go a long ways towards helping Hochevar reach his potential.

3. Robinson Tejeda. After the Royals ran Gil Meche and Brian Bannister into the ground last season, they basically made Tejeda a starter out of desperation. And in six September starts, he vaulted himself into contention for a rotation spot in 2010. In those starts, five of which came against teams that finished with a winning record, went 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA. Now, we've seen this kind of sparkling September before, only to be extremely disappointed the following season--here's looking at you, Kyle Davies--so Tejeda's promising month should be taken with a grain or two of salt. But even if Tejeda does not make the starting rotation, perhaps he will be given a more important role in the bullpen, which was a major problem for KC last year.

4. Juan Cruz. Speaking of major bullpen problems, here's a guy who was in the middle of many of them in 2009. It's funny (funny strange, not funny ha-ha), because the signing of Cruz was the one move the Royals made last offseason that was well-received by practically every Royal fan. Cruz was coming off two exceptional years in Arizona as a reliever, and was expected to be a primary setup man for Soria. Instead, he was probably the Royals' worst bullpen member not named Kyle Farnsworth. The most amazing thing about Cruz last year was his inability to get strikeouts. He went from K/9 rates over 12 in 2007-08 to 6.8 last year with no apparent reason before he finally went on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation in August. If he is healthy this season, and can return to the form the Royals expected when they signed him, it would go a long way towards solidifying the bullpen in front of Soria. The Royals figure to be offensively challenged again this year, so the times the starting pitchers leave the game with a lead, the bullpen must be able to finish out the game.

If There's An Original Thought Out There

2010-01-23T15:51:00.004-06:00

...I could use it right now.
(From "Brownsville Girl," Knocked Out Loaded)

Another outfielder. With the addition of Rick Ankiel, the Royals have now signed or traded for three new outfielders this offseason, and a fourth if you think Josh Fields will end up playing more outfield than infield.

By itself, the Ankiel move seems OK, as well as intriguing. Ankiel's numbers fell off last year, but that may have been due to a horrific crash into an outfield wall he suffered in early May. Giving him $3.25 million for only one year seems like an acceptable gamble--not much money to see if he can return to his 2008 form. The mutual option for 2011 means either side can walk away--if Ankiel doesn't produce, he probably won't be a Royal in 2011. If he does, it's likely he'll exercise his option and be a free agent again. So the contract doesn't seem to be a problem for either side, and I don't mind the Royals taking a small gamble like that.

It's true that Ankiel is now 30, and theoretically in the decline phase of his career. However, his famous switch from pitcher to outfielder means he's only had two full big-league season's worth of everyday hitting. Those factors probably don't offset each other, but I suppose the possibility exists that Ankiel's career arc could be different from a "normal" player.

However, given the other moves the Royals have made this offseason, I cannot figure out what the overall plan is. The Royals now have Ankiel, Brian Anderson, David DeJesus, Jose Guillen, Mitch Maier, and Scott Podsednik as outfield candidates. And that doesn't include Fields or, possibly, Alberto Callaspo, who apparently has been supplanted at second base by Chris Getz but is one of the few Royals who can hit.

Of course, this is a pattern for the Royals, and it's a disturbing one. There doesn't seem to be a master plan for the major league level--if there were one, why would they ever sign Podsednik only to sign Ankiel two weeks later? This follows last offseason, when it seemed like the goal was to sign any available relief pitcher. I guess the hope is that quantity will somehow equal quality.

Also, this seems like an indictment of the farm system. Dayton Moore has had almost four years to provide the franchise with some quality minor-league options to fill holes at the major-league level. Yes, the cupboard was pretty bare when Moore took over. But it seems like the Royals are trying to patch up both AAA Omaha and the big-league club now, while all the hot prospects are still in AA or A ball. This is rather depressing.

Well, at the risk of repeating myself, it will be interesting to see if another move or two (trade-wise) springs out of this signing. The outfield situation may not sort itself out until the end of spring training. For now, though, this is another head-scratcher, even though, as I said, I don't think this move by itself is bad.

Announcements

2010-01-17T19:09:00.003-06:00

A couple of quick announcements...

First, I finally put up a poll for most disappointing Royals season. It's over there on the right side of the page. You can refresh your memory as to what I wrote about each of those seasons here.

Second, I decided it was time to join 2009. Yes, I now have a Twitter account. If you're so inclined, you may follow it here.

Now, go enjoy the Golden Globes or the premiere of 24. Or whatever you're up to tonight. As always, thanks for reading!

I Keep Recycling The Same Old Thoughts

2010-01-09T15:57:00.003-06:00

(from "Someday Baby," Modern Times)

The Royals have added Scott Podsednik to the team, giving him a one-year contract for $1.75 million, plus a club option for 2011. I'd like to offer you some trenchant analysis of this signing and how it will make the Royals better, but I can't work up the enthusiasm. And besides, I think we all (unless Dayton Moore is reading this) know it probably won't make the Royals better.

Sure, there's a chance Podsednik could make the Royals better in 2010. If he were to duplicate his .353 OBP from 2009, he would likely be among the team leaders in that category. That number would have ranked third on the Royals last season, behind Billy Butler and Alberto Callaspo. Combined, Royals center fielders (I'm assuming the Royals will play Podsednik in center and not left field) put up a .319 OBP last season; Podsednik's career number is .340. So from that perspective, yes, he probably will be an upgrade from 2009.

See, there's nothing wrong with this signing from that standpoint. On the other hand, I don't think you'll find many people, even optimistic Royals fans, who expect the team to contend for a division title this year. With that in mind, would there really be any harm in letting Mitch Maier play a full season to see what the Royals have there? Maier is younger and cheaper than Podsednik. While he wasn't great last year, he wasn't horrible. Why not see if he might be part of the long-term solution?

Look, the Royals are just marking time until this season is over and the ridiculously bloated contracts of Jose Guillen and Kyle Farnsworth come off the books and give the team some payroll flexibility. Furthermore, they're really just waiting until prospects like Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer are ready to make an impact at the major league level. I think most Royals fans understand that and are willing to wait a couple more years for the team to really be on the cusp of something good (we've waited 25 years, what's a couple more?). Scott Podsednik is a decent player and has had a solid career. But he'll turn 34 during spring training. He's not going to be here when the Royals' long-term plan reaches fruition (assuming, of course, it does reach some sort of fruition). Why not give someone who might be here when that happens a chance to play?

Instead, the Royals have made yet another move that looks OK in the short term but probably blocks a younger player from playing full-time. It's a move that doesn't make much sense to me. But that sort of move is quickly becoming a Dayton Moore specialty, and I think it's the sort of move the Royals need to stop making if they are ever truly going to change their losing ways.

The Most Disappointing Royals Season? Part IV: 2004

2009-12-13T17:02:00.003-06:00

The 1990s, particularly after the 1994 players' strike, saw the Royals slowly descend from a model organization to mediocrity to a laughingstock. This culminated in the 2002 season, when the Royals lost 100 games for the first time in the franchise's 34 seasons. The Royals then saw their best pitcher, Paul Byrd, go to Atlanta as a free agent after winning 17 games.

This made the 2003 season so amazing. I assume most of you are familiar with the details, but to briefly recap: the Royals began 2003 with nine straight wins on their way to a 16-3 record. After falling all the way back down to a 28-29 mark in early June, they rebounded to have a 7-game lead at the All-Star Break. They held on to first place into late August, then ran out of gas and finished seven games back, with an 83-79 record. It was their first winning season since 1994. Tony Pena won AL Manager of the Year, Angel Berroa won AL Rookie of the Year, and for the first time in years, the Royals--not the Chiefs--were the talk of the town.

To his credit, then-GM Allard Baird seemed to understand that the 2003 season really had been magical; the Royals had actually been outscored for the season, had benefited from playing a historically bad Tigers team 18 times, and somehow had only one pitcher (Darrell May) reach 10 wins. So Baird went to work, although as always with the Royals, he had a limited budget. Still, Baird signed free agents Matt Stairs, Tony Graffanino, Benito Santiago and, in an apparent coup, Juan Gonzalez.

Yep, 2004 looked promising. Sure, it would be tough--the Twins and White Sox both looked solid, and none of the pitchers who had contributed in 2003 had much of a track record. But Royals fans had been hearing about this kid named Greinke who was expected to make his debut that season, and become a star shortly after. Despite the loss of outfielder Raul Ibanez, the offense looked good with the offseason additions.

It didn't all fall apart right away. The most eagerly-awaited Opening Day in years saw the Royals win a thrilling, come-from-behind 9-7 game against the White Sox. KC scored 6 runs in the 9th inning, tying the game on a 3-run homer by Mendy Lopez, then winning on a walk-off 2-run shot by Carlos Beltran. It certainly looked like the magic of 2003 was carrying over into 2004.

After getting out to a 4-2 start to the season, things fell apart quickly. The Royals lost 12 of 15 games, ending April with a 7-14 record. Very few teams survive a month like that and go on to win a division title, but there was still a feeling of hope that they could climb back in the race; after all, it was only May 1.

Unfortunately, that was the day the Royals summoned a virtual unknown, Eduardo Villacis, to make a spot start at Yankee Stadium. Even for the most serious Royals fan, Villacis was a mystery. Heck, many of his new teammates were unfamiliar with him. And they barely had time to get acquainted. The Venezuelan righty gave up 2 runs in the 1st inning and 3 more in the 3rd before being pulled in the 4th. Those 3 1/3 innings would be his only appearance as a major leaguer. They would also be a neat metaphor for the Royals' 2004 season.

The losses continued to pile up and the odd things continued to happen. Pena had already tried to loosen up the troops by jumping into the shower, still in uniform, after a loss to the Twins. Now, after Villacis' Bronx bombing, Pena told the assembled media, "We are going to win the Central." This motivational ploy didn't work either; the Royals would lose 13 of the next 19 games. On May 21, Gonzalez was removed from a game against the A's and would be placed on the DL with a lower back injury, where he would stay for the rest of the season. First, the injury was said to be day-to-day, then a two-week deal, and then a season-ender.

One positive of the 2004 season was Greinke's debut, a solid start against the A's in Oakland. Zack was properly initiated into Royals baseball by his new teammates, as Jeremy Affeldt blew the save in the 9th, and then the Royals lost the game in the 11th. Hey, at least they scored 4 runs for him!

Another oddity...on June 6th, pitcher Jason Grimsley and first baseman Ken Harvey collided while trying to field a grounder. Actually, Harvey fielded the ball and prepared to throw home, but instead ended up socking Grimsley in the jaw as the pitcher raced to cover first. Although neither player was seriously hurt, they both laid on the Kauffman Stadium grass for several minutes and ended up going to the hospital for X-rays. Needless to say, the non-play ended up costing the Royals the game.

As the losses mounted, it became clear that Baird was going to have to trade Beltran, who would be a free agent at the end of the season. With the Royals' promising success in 2003, Baird had decided to hold on to the star center fielder to see if KC could make a run at the division title in 2004. And so, on June 24, the Royals traded Beltran to the Astros, part of a three-team deal that netted the Royals Mark Teahen, John Buck, and pitcher Mike Wood.

With the towel officially thrown in now, the losing continued, as the Royals closed July with 11 losses in 12 games. KC only won 7 games in July, ending the month at 21.5 games behind the Twins. August and September weren't much better, and the Royals broke the 100-loss barrier for the second time in three years in the final week of the season. The Royals ended up with a 58-104 record, an amazing and embarrassing departure from where the record was expected to be.

So what happened? Well, injuries were definitely a problem. KC used 58 players in 2004, which is still a club record (by comparison, in 2009, when the front office loved to use injuries as an excuse for the disappointing season, the team used 34 players). But the players who played the most games just weren't that good. Only six Royals played more than 100 games, and Mike Sweeney and Matt Stairs were the only ones of that group to post OPS+ numbers over 100. Gonzalez, the Royals' biggest offseason signing and a guy who was supposed to be an offensive cornerstone, only played 33 games and was held to a .767 OPS.

Still, the most disappointing position player of 2004 had to be Angel Berroa. Looking back, we know how badly his lack of plate discipline hurt his career. But in 2004, it seemed like he was undergoing a sophomore slump like none other, as his average dropped 25 points, his OBP fell 30 points, and his slugging percentage tumbled 66 points. And of course, this was the player who had the most plate appearances for the 2004 Royals. That explains a lot.

Also, the pitching was horrible, finishing with a league-worst 5.16 ERA, a league-low 25 saves, and a league-low 887 strikeouts, among other lowlights. The only starting pitcher to post and ERA+ over 100? Greinke, of course. Darrell May went 9-19 and complained he couldn't even get no-decisions as the bullpen repeatedly let inherited runners score.

After the dream season of 2003, 2004 was a nightmare. And even worse, it would set the stage for an even longer nightmare. From 2004-2006, the Royals would lose 310 games. Tony Pena quit in disgrace after a game in Toronto, fleeing to his native Dominican Republic to avoid testifying in the divorce hearing of a woman he was having an affair with (to this day, I think the real reason he quit was Berroa's inexplicable baserunning error that cost the Royals that game--I think poor Tony just couldn't stand it anymore). He would be replaced by Buddy Bell, who would famously say, "I never say it can't get worse," a perfect summation of the Kansas City Royals from about 1995 to today.

Baird would be fired in 2006, after being allowed to twist in the wind for a while by David Glass, who essentially said publicly he was pulling the trigger, then took almost a month to do so. Although Baird was pretty much a failure as GM, he seemed to be a decent man who deserved better. And he did draft Greinke, Billy Butler and Alex Gordon, among others, along with rescuing Raul Ibanez off the scrap heap.

In retrospect, 2004 probably shouldn't have been such a surprise. Well, maybe the amount of losing would be considered surprising, but it seems obvious now that the 2004 Royals were really not that good. I would say they proved that by hitting 100 losses in the next two seasons. But after the magical summer of 2003, 2004 was supposed to be the continuation of a Royal renaissance. Instead, it turned out to be a six-month-long train wreck.

We Longed For Nothin'

2009-12-12T19:14:00.003-06:00

...and were quite satisifed.
(From "Bob Dylan's Dream," The Freewheelin' Bob Dylan)

Jason Kendall, eh?

Pardon my lack of enthusiasm. Also, pardon my lack of outrage. I will get enthusiastic if and whem the Royals make a move that significantly upgrades the roster. I will be outraged when they trade a pitching prospect for possibly the worst everyday player in baseball, not that they would ever do such a thing.

But this move...I think it makes the Royals slightly worse, but really, what's the point in getting upset about that? The Royals have made plenty of moves over the years to make themselves worse, many of them much more damaging than this. Instead, this feels like a rather pointless endeavor, much like the act of being a Royals fan is becoming.

I understand the Royals don't feel like they can increase payroll. That's their call, and I won't question it. But in that case, why not look for ways to save some money and perhaps find a piece for the future? Based on moves the Royals made earlier this offseason, they seemed to understand that they are not contending in 2010. So why not wait until tonight's deadline to see which players became free agents after their teams didn't offer them a contract? Obviously, no big names would be available, but the opportunity could be there to find a young, undervalued piece of the puzzle.

Instead, the Royals spent almost as much on a 35-year-old catcher coming off perhaps his worst offensive season as they would have on a 28-year-old catcher coming off his best offensive season. True, catchers are usually not valued for their offensive skills, and no one is arguing Buck would turn into Johnny Bench. But Kendall only has one offensive advantage over Buck: on-base percentage. I guess we could be optimists and say the Royals have finally figured out OBP is important, but that would be ignoring Buck's vast advantage in power hitting. In 2009, Kendall had 526 plate appearances; Buck had 202. If you extrapolate Buck's numbers to the same number of plate appearances, you get a catcher who hits .247 with 21 homers, 31 doubles, 94 RBI and 42 runs. Not bad. Instead, now the Royals have a catcher who hit .241 with 2 homers, 19 doubles, 43 RBI and 48 runs.

Perhaps Kendall's defense makes up the difference, you say? Based on quotes in the article I linked above, the Royals seem to think it does. While catcher defense is hard to quantify statistically, based on watching Buck last year, it seems the only area he struggles in is throwing out runners. Yet Buck and Kendall had almost the same success rate throwing out baserunners last year. It is possible Kendall is better at other aspects of catching--calling a game, blocking balls in the dirt, etc. Certainly those are important, although the old "veteran presence" canard is overused.

The Royals are still looking for a centerfielder and some left-handed pitching. I'm just going to hope those searches have a more promising result than this one did.

The Most Disappointing Royals Season? Part III: 1990

2009-11-08T21:14:00.008-06:00

It's common to hear that the Royals have "stunk," or "been mired in futility," or however you want to say it, since 1985. Of course, that's not really true. The Royals teams of the late 1980s were still solid ballclubs who just couldn't get over the hump.

The AL West was up for grabs until the Oakland A's dynasty rose up in 1988, but the Royals still had hope. After all, they still had plenty of star power: George Brett was winding down his Hall of Fame career, but would still have enough left to win a batting title in 1990. Bret Saberhagen was dominant enough to win a second Cy Young Award in 1989. Veteran links to the "glory days" like Willie Wilson and Frank White shared the field with up-and-coming stars like Mike Macfarlane, Kevin Seitzer, Kurt Stilwell, Tom Gordon, and Jeff Montgomery. And the Royals also had possibly the most famous athlete in the country, Bo Jackson.

It must be hard for kids today to comprehend a Royals player appearing in national TV commercials, writing an autobiography with a distinguished journalist like Dick Schaap, having his own video game, or any of the other things Bo accomplished off the field. For a time, the Royals had the coolest baseball player on the planet.

Meanwhile, the Oakland A's were assembling a dynasty of sorts, running away with the AL West in 1988, then outlasting the Royals by 7 games in 1989. People who think the Royals have been horrible for 24 straight years now should check out the '89 edition, which had the second-best record in the league. Unfortunately, they were stuck in a division with the league's best team.

Two things were in play here. First, the A's and Royals had a bit of a rivalry going on. There was the minor detail that the A's had jerked Kansas City baseball fans around for 15 years, then bolted town right before the team finally began winning. Then, the Royals ended up chasing those good A's teams in the division standings every year before breaking through with a division title in 1976. Several mediocre years by the A's in the late '70s and early '80s had dimmed the rivalry somewhat, but it had a bit of a resurgence once the A's got good again.

The other factor was the health of Royals founder and owner Ewing Kauffman. Beloved by his employees and by the fans of Kansas City, Mr. K turned 73 before the end of the 1989 season. Who knew how many more years he might have to win a second World Series.

So, after the 1989 season, the Royals went shopping in the free-agent supermarket. For younger Royals fans, it may be tough to imagine a Royals free-agent signing that is not a lower-light like, say, Kyle Farnsworth. No, the Royals were going after big names.

On December 7, 1989, the Royals signed starting pitcher Storm Davis, taking him away from their rivals in Oakland. On December 11, the Royals pulled off an even bigger coup, signing relief pitcher Mark Davis, the NL Cy Young Award winner (this meant the 1990 Royals would make baseball history by having both reigning Cy Young winners). And on December 15, the Royals traded starting pitcher Charlie Leibrandt to the Braves for Gerald Perry, intending to install him at first base and move Brett to DH (he had moved from third to first a few years earlier to make room for Seitzer).

In those simpler days, most baseball fans (myself included) didn't understand or even know about the many advanced stats we take for granted now. So we Royals fans were excited that Storm Davis had won 19 games in 1989. We were excited that Mark Davis had had 44 saves in 1989. And we were excited that Perry had hit .300 in 1988, even though he'd fallen off in 1989. We didn't realize that Storm's 19 wins came despite a 4.36 ERA and a 1.506 WHIP, or that the A's averaged almost 6 runs a game when he pitched. We didn't realize that saves were an overrated stat, and that the Royals probably already had two better relief pitchers in Montgomery and Steve Farr. We didn't realize that Perry's offense was almost devoid of power, a serious shortcoming for a 1B/DH type.

So we all went into the 1990 season expecting a summer-long battle with the A's and the also-formidable-looking Angels for first place. It would begin with an Opening Day battle against Baltimore on ESPN.

I remember racing into the house after school to catch the end of the game. It had been a seesaw affair, and the game was tied at 6 in the 11th. Montgomery was starting his third inning of work. Even at age 14, I thought this was odd. The Royals had spent all that money on Mark Davis, and they wouldn't use him? Monty walked the leadoff hitter, then gave up two singles and the lead run. Then, and only then, did Mark Davis enter the game. When the Royals went quietly in the bottom of the inning, the season was off to a bad start.

It got worse; the Royals had a six-game losing streak in late April, then won a game, then lost four in a row. At 6-16, they were already 10.5 games out. They would not get within 10 games of the division lead for the rest of the season. In one month, the promise of a pennant race had gone up in smoke. KC would end up with a 75-86 record, a mere 27.5 games out of first.

Those offseason acquisitions sure worked out well, didn't they? Storm Davis went 7-10 with a 4.74 ERA and only gave the Royals 112 innings. Mark Davis was a total disaster, going 2-7 with a 5.11 ERA and only 6 saves. Things got so bad that, in desperation, the Royals let him start a couple of game in late July (he got bombed in those games, too). Perry hit .254/.313/.361 for an OPS+ of 90. Of course, there was plenty of blame to go around besides those three. Bret Saberhagen continued his career pattern of good year, bad year, as injuries limited him to only 20 starts. God bless Frank White for all he did for the Royals, but in his last season, he put up a 58 OPS+ in 82 games. The 1990 Royals weren't a bad team, just mediocre. But after the hype of the preceding winter, it was a very disappointing season.

The disappointment would continue into the offseason. Frank White would retire after the season. Willie Wilson would sign a free-agent deal with the A's. And in January of 1991, Bo Jackson would injure his hip while engaged in his "hobby," playing running back for the Los Angeles Raiders. With his athletic ability in doubt, the Royals would release Bo in March of 1991. His hip would eventually require replacement, and while he was able to come back and play baseball, he was never the same combination of power and speed.

The Royals would scrape along near the bottom of the AL West for a couple more seasons. It would not be until 1993 that they would be contenders again. Even then, they were only fringe contenders. Then the 1994 strike hit, and the franchise began its decline. So 1989 still stands as the last time KC reached 90 wins in a season. And 1990 stands as the beginning of what is now a two-decade struggle.

A Few Thoughts On The Mark Teahen Trade

2009-11-08T20:21:00.004-06:00

I can't bring myself to have a strong opinion either way on the Mark Teahen trade. Teahen was a decent player who was probably more popular with the fans than his numbers deserved, thanks to his media-friendly personality and willingness to be shuffled from third base to right field to left field back to third base, with a little first base thrown in there too (and I'm not qualified to judge this, but The Amazing Michelle assures me his looks did not hurt his popularity, either). Unfortunately, the way baseball salaries work, if a player can stick around long enough, his salary will keep going up, no matter what his production is. And Teahen was likely to get an arbitration-induced raise to around $5 million for 2010.

I like Teahen, but his OPS+ numbers the last three seasons are 98, 91, 94. The average major leaguer's salary is around $3 million. The Royals can't afford (and shouldn't want) to pay almost twice the average salary for slightly below-average production.

As for the players the Royals got back, third baseman Josh Fields and second baseman Chris Getz, I can't decide if these guys are useful or not. Fields will turn 27 in December; Getz turned 26 in August. Theoretically, their careers should be peaking now, so that's good. Fields had a decent rookie season in 2007, but has struggled since. From the stats, Getz appears to be a good-field, no-hit guy with good baserunning skills. Let's face it, the Royals could use some good fielders and some good baserunners, so he may be useful if he can get on base.

Of course, the unanswered questions after this trade involve Alex Gordon and Alberto Callaspo, who appeared to be set at third and second, respectively, in 2010. Perhaps the Royals intend to move one or both players, either to another position or another team entirely.

Until we see what other moves the Royals have in store this winter, it's hard to decide how to feel about this move. If the Royals have traded Teahen for two role players or organizational depth (admittedly, something the Royals need), it's probably not a major move. If one or both players end up starting next April, then the Royals may have pulled off a steal. If they have moved one slightly below-average player for two well below-average players, well...that's not really progress, is it? In fact, it's the kind of deal that has helped put the Royals in their current predicament.

Most Disappointing Royals Season? Part II: 1986

2009-11-01T20:07:00.003-06:00

If you're interested enough in the Royals to be reading this, I imagine you know all the details about 1985. Of course, the Royals won their one (and only?) World Series title that year. It was the culmination of 17 years of Royals baseball, and the end of a decade's worth of postseason frustration. So perhaps a hangover of sorts was inevitable. But I'm sure no Royals fan imagined the season going awry in the way that it did.

The Royals followed up their 91-71 championship season* with a 76-86 record in 1986. That put them in third place, 16 games behind California. Heck, the usually (in the 1980s, anyway) mediocre Texas Rangers were able to finish second that year.

*History seems to have determined the Royals really weren't that good in 1985, just lucky. Well, they did win 91 games, although they outperformed their Pythagorean record by five games. So I suppose they were a bit lucky, but I would say a low-scoring team with a very good pitching staff would be a good candidate to seem lucky--they are likely to win more close, low-scoring games. Were they as good as the Blue Jays and Cardinals, the teams they beat in the postseason? Probably not, but they managed to get hot at the right time. And they did come back twice from 3-1 deficits. Don't let anyone kid you--the 1985 Royals were a good team.

The Royals brought back essentially the entire 1985 team for an encore. The pitching staff that had been so good in 1984 and 1985 was not filled with old-timers, although some of the core position players were entering the final phase of their careers. So what happened?

The Royals played basically .500 ball for the first three months of the season. That was nothing new for the mid-'80s Royals, though. In fact, through 72 games, the 1985 and 1986 teams had identical 37-35 records. The difference, of course, is that in 1985 the team got hot and stayed that way. In 1986, the Royals got to 37-35, then suffered through an 11-game losing streak in late June and early July. Then came the All-Star Break.

The 1986 All-Star Game should have been a celebration for the Royals and their fans. George Brett and Frank White were both selected as reserves, and of course Dick Howser was the AL manager, since his team had won the league the previous year. White ended up hitting a home run in the game--the eventual winning run for the AL--off Mike Scott of the Houston Astros, who was having a season for the ages and pitching in front of his home fans in the Astrodome.

But something was wrong. Howser seemed distracted and forgetful. Players thought he looked tired. Royals GM John Schuerholz insisted Howser go see a doctor. Soon after the All-Star Game, the diagnosis was in: Howser had a brain tumor. Howser's right-hand man, Mike Ferraro, took over managerial duties for the final 74 games.

Under these circumstances, a disappointing season was all but certain. The long losing streak had pretty much knocked them out of contention (8.5 games back and in fourth place when it ended, with 79 games left) and now their manager, the man who had inspired them and led them to two division titles and a World Series win in the previous two seasons, was fighting for his life in a hospital. Actually, the Royals played roughly .5oo baseball after the losing streak ended, but they could never really get in gear or put together a hot streak.

Hoswer would attempt a brief comeback in spring training in 1987, but had to give it up after only one day. Three months later, less than a year after his diagnosis, he passed on. He was only 51.

So 1986 saw two of the biggest reasons the Royals have not made a postseason appearance since that magical October of 1985. First, Howser's untimely death cut short what might have been a very good managerial career. In one full season with the Yankees and four with the Royals, he had won three division titles and a World Series. Yes, managers probably do not make that much difference in a team's record, but after Howser, the Royals began a managerial procession of retreads (Billy Gardner, Buddy Bell), former Royals from the "glory days" (John Wathan, Hal McRae), possibly crazy people (Bob Boone, Tony Pena Sr.), and uninspiring Eeyore types (Tony Muser, Buddy Bell). With Howser still in the dugout, perhaps some of the second- and third-place finishes over the next few years would become division titles. We'll never know, of course.

Also, after the 1986 season, the Royals traded away two young pitchers to try to fortify an offense that had been next to last in the league in runs scored. First, they sent Scott Bankhead to Seattle for outfielder Danny Tartabull. That move worked out well for the Royals. Second, they sent David Cone to the Mets for catcher Ed Hearn. That move would haunt the Royals for years. Had Cone been a part of the Royals in the late '80s and early '90s, perhaps they could have won another division title or two. And they might not have signed Mark Davis and Storm Davis as free agents after the 1989 season. That may or may not be foreshadowing for the next installment of this series...

Most Disappointing Royals Season? Part I: 1983

2009-10-31T20:06:00.005-05:00

Before I start, this bit of genius just has to be pointed out: Dayton Moore vs. Insanity Wolf. Go on, read it. I'll wait.

OK. As I said before, I really started following the Royals in 1983. So I suppose that season wasn't that much of a disappointment to me--I didn't know any better. But I imagine to someone who had been a Royals fan prior to that season, 1983 was a real bummer of a summer, as Ned Flanders might say.

The 1982 Royals went 90-72 and were in the division race all the way to the end. In fact, they were tied for the division lead on Sept. 19, then got swept in a three-game series by the Angels, who ended up winning the division by three games. They suffered no major losses in the offseason (except trading a minor leaguer named Cecil Fielder to Toronto for outfielder Leon Roberts--ugh). So although I don't really remember it, I assume the Royals were expected to contend in 1983.

Of course, that didn't happen. Well, it did somewhat. On August 10, the Royals were five games behind Chicago despite being only 54-55 on the year. At a time when the Royals needed to get hot, it was instead the White Sox who caught fire, going 39-12 the rest of the way and starting my lifelong disdain for the Pale Hose. The Royals ended up in second place, but were under .500 at 79-83 and 20 games behind Chicago.

So what happened? Looking at the stats from 1982 to 1983, I think it was a combination of key players getting old in a hurry and injuries taking down the staff ace. Plus, apparently some other important players had a drug problem...more on that shortly.

The '83 season was the last year in a Royals uniform for one of the best players in team history, Amos Otis. After hitting .286 with 11 homers and 88 RBIs in 125 games in 1982, AO could only manage .261, 4 and 41 in 98 games in 1983. One thing I regret as a Royals fan is that I did not get to see Otis play in his prime--I think he would have been fun to watch. But in 1983, he was struggling.

On the pitching side, Larry Gura went from an 18-12 mark in '82 to a league-leading 18 losses in '83. His ERA jumped almost a full run, from 4.03 to 4.90, while his K/BB ratio went from 98:64 to 57:76. Yep, he walked almost 20 more than he struck out. And still the Royals let him start 31 games and pitch 200 innings. Gura would have a slight bounceback in 1984, going 12-9 despite an unsightly 5.18 ERA. But he was essentially done after 1982, and the Royals couldn't make up for it elsewhere--the young pitchers who would be an important part of the 1984 and 1985 titles just weren't quite ready.

The Royals may have been able to absorb Gura's decline had Dennis Leonard pitched all year. Although Gura got the Opening Day start, I think Leonard would have been considered the staff ace after winning 20 games three times in his eight previous full seasons. But on May 28, his career was derailed when he ruptured his patellar tendon while pitching to Cal Ripken. Leonard would make a valiant comeback and pitch again for the Royals in 1985 and 1986, but his injury helped torpedo the Royals' 1983 season.

Finally, the thing I imagine the 1983 season is most remembered for actually happened after the season. In mid-October, outfielders Willie Wilson and Jerry Martin, first baseman Willie Aikens and pitcher Vida Blue were arrested and charged with misdeameanors related to possession of cocaine. Blue had been released by the Royals in August, but the other three were still on the roster at the time. Martin became a free agent after the season and ended up with the Mets; while Aikens would be traded to the Blue Jays for Jorge Orta, who of course was involved in perhaps the most famous play in franchise history. Wilson would be suspended for the 1984 season by then-commissioner Bowie Kuhn, but on appeal that was reduced to the first month-and-a-half of the '84 campaign. All four players served 81 days in federal prison.

At the time, I'm sure this was a big scandal, at least as big as it could be without the prevalence of ESPN and 24-hour news channels, and without the existence of websites, to let us know how these men had destroyed our innocence. As it turned out, cocaine was a widespread problem in baseball, and let's face it, in the early '80s there were a lot of cocaine problems in all of society. So thankfully, this episode is more or less a footnote in baseball history, although it is a bigger part of Royals history.

Out of the ashes of the 1983 season, though, the Royals would win the division in 1984, and of course win it all in 1985. One thing about the '83 season, it gave the Royals a chance to start clearing out some of the veterans who had starred on the great teams of the late '70s. Youngsters like Saberhagen, Jackson, Gubicza, Motley, Sheridan, Balboni and Leibrandt would move into important roles and the Royals would quickly reap the benefits.

I’ve Just Returned From The Salt, Salt Sea

2009-10-30T21:03:00.003-05:00

…and it’s all for the love of thee
(From "House Carpenter," The Bootleg Series Vol. 1-3)

I’m still here. Apologies, loyal readers (both of you), I didn’t mean to go so long between posts. I was planning a season wrap-up, but we had a lovely vacation in Florida the week after the season ended. It’s hard to get excited about rehashing a disappointing season when you’re looking at this:

Anyway, after some consideration, I decided against a wrap-up. Personally, this may be the most disappointing season I’ve lived through as a Royals fan, and that’s saying something. Perhaps 2004 is the only one that could rival this one. I suppose 1986 would merit consideration, as would 1990. Of course, back then we expected the Royals to be really good; we weren’t just hoping they could have everything break right and contend in a mediocre division.

Not to appoint myself as Royals historian (Royals Retrospective does a great job of that), but let’s break down the most disappointing seasons in Royals history. Let’s define “disappointing” in regards to preseason expectations—sure, 2005 and 2006 were awful, but I think every Royals fan went into those seasons just hoping not to lose 100 games. And I’ll limit this to seasons since I became a Royals fan—I consider 1983 to be the first year I was really paying attention. But really, the years before that were building a good team, then watching that good team kick AL West butt. Off the top of my head, about the only year in there that would be disappointing would be 1979 (a second-place finish after three straight division titles and Whitey Herzog getting fired).

So here’s the plan: I’ve picked what I consider to be the four other most disappointing seasons in Royals history. I’ll write a separate recap of each season and then put up a poll. I will then petition baseball-reference.com to remove all vestiges of the most disappointing Royals season ever.

OK, maybe not. But I am interested to find out what you all think. I've also thought up a couple of (I hope) fun features to add for the offseason, and of course if the Royals make any moves this winter, I'll sound off on those, too.

I Thought Some Of 'Em Were Friends Of Mine

2009-09-13T21:50:00.000-05:00

...I was wrong about 'em all
(From "Cold Irons Bound," Time Out Of Mind)

You can't blame Zack Greinke if he feels that way about his teammates. For me, and I'm sure for most Royals fans, this season can't end fast enough. There is a lot of bitterness out there--just read any game thread on Royals Review, or consider the hiatus a normally mild-mannered sort like Rany has self-imposed. I'm not going to point fingers at anyone who wants to stop paying attention to this team for a while, or question their fandom. That's your choice, and I can't blame you--it is harder every day to care about this franchise and their unique mixture of incompetence and arrogance.

But there is one remaining reason to pay at least a little attention to the rest of this season, and that is Greinke's quest for a Cy Young award. Of course, winning the award isn't going to make this disappointing season any easier to take, but I think every Royals fan is hoping that Zack will win a nice shiny trophy for his trophy case and be recognized for what he is: the best pitcher in the American League in 2009. It would be the capper on a great story, and I think we all believe Zack deserves something special for pitching so well for the worst team in the AL.

However, there is concern that the media types who vote for these awards will look at Zack's rather paltry win total (13) and decide somehow that CC Sabathia or Justin Verlander or Roy Halladay must be better, simply by having more wins.

You and I know (probably) that wins are a terrible way to measure a pitcher. If the Royals have done nothing else this year, they have certainly provided Exhibit A in the case against the Pitcher Wins stat. How can a pitcher lead the league in ERA, WHIP and shutouts and be near the lead in strikeouts, innings pitched and complete games and not even get close to 20 wins? When he playes for a low-scoring team that can't catch the ball. And of course, neither of those factors are things Zack can control.

Zack has made 29 starts this year, and the Royals have put together a total of 101 runs in those games, an average of 3.48 runs per game. Even for the Royals' pathetic offense, this is below average; KC is scoring 4.08 runs per game overall this year. I went through Zack's game logs for this season and tried to figure out what his record would be if the Royals could have just scored 4 runs per game for him (mind you, league average is 4.83 R/G, so this isn't even giving him averag support). For this exercise, I supposed the Royals had a "4" on the scoreboard when Zack left and the bullpen work stayed the same, no matter how crappy it was.

Unsurprisingly, the Cy Young race would be over. Zack would be 18-3. The Royals would be 18-8 when he pitches (with three times where the opponent ended up with 4 runs), instead of their pathetic 14-15 record in his starts, so they'd have at least 4 more wins this year.

Under these same conditions, Halladay would be 15-5 (he's currently 14-9), Sabathia would be 16-6 (he's currently 16-7), and Verlander would be 17-4 (currently 16-8). So none of these guys have suffered as much from a crappy offense as Zack has. For further evidence, look at their run support: Sabathia has received 5.73 R/G, Halladay 4.86 R/G, and Verlander 4.63 R/G. They're all getting at least 1 more run per start than Greinke.

And of course, Zack has put together this amazing season with one more disadvantage: unlike those other three, Greinke has not had one start against the league's second-most feeble offense, measured in runs. That would be the guys dressing in the same locker room as he is. When he faced the only AL offense to score fewer runs than the Royals, he tossed perhaps his most dominant game, a 1-hit shutout of Seattle. Coincidentally, that was the last time Zack got a win. Since then, in two starts, he's given up 2 runs (1 earned) in 15 innings. His mates have backed him up with a total of 3 runs, and it took 23 innings to manage that.

I am about 75% certain the voters will do the right thing and give Zack his Cy Young award. But that's only because no pitcher in the AL this year is piling up wins. With a win today, Sabathia took the league lead over Verlander (and Scott Feldman of Texas) at 17. It looks like Greinke will get 4 more starts this year. If the Royals can just squeeze out a few runs for him and he gets to 15 or 16 wins, that ought to be enough. I hope. It would help if no one makes it to 20, since I'm afraid the old-fashioned types voting for the award couldn't resist the pull of a nice round number.

There's No Success Like Failure

2009-08-17T18:33:00.006-05:00

...and that failure's no success at all.
(From "Love Minus Zero/No Limit," Bringing It All Back Home)

Interesting and revealing quote from the Star this morning about Brayan Pena:

"...manager Trey Hillman continues to insist:

'By the end of this season, I want to be able to accurately answer the question of whether we think he can be a front-line guy or is he what he is right now — a backup, a bat off the bench and an occasional DH. He gives you a great (at-bat).'

That prompts the question: Why not play Peña at least four or five times a week over the final seven weeks to provide an answer?

'The argument against that,' Hillman said, 'is (the desire) to continue utilizing a guy who has a lot of power production and helps generate runs and throws out base stealers better when you’re playing teams that do run in a Miguel Olivo.

'That’s the argument. And trying to go with the difficult balance of, yeah, you’d like to find that out (about Peña) but, at the same time, you’d like to win ballgames.' "

This is exactly the problem the Royals have now and have been re-enacting for 15 years (at least). They never fully commit to finding out what their young players can do, preferring instead to sign veterans and hope those players can have some sort of career year. If not, at least they're theoretically solid players.

The problem with this process is that the Royals are never going to be able to afford difference-making veterans, so the guys they end up getting are usually on the decline. Even worse, they block the Royals from finding out if they have any worthwhile prospects. And they seem to fill the front office with false hope, the odd idea that the team is a few players away and a .500 record is the goal.

Frankly, I'm tired of the Royals shooting for a .500 record. That doesn't get you anything. Even in the AL Central. Yes, the Royals need to get to .500 before they can be a winning team, but the goal is and always should be a World Series title. Quit building teams that might be .500 if things go well and start trying to win. Let's not forget, this year's team was supposed to be one that would be around .500 and "maybe contend if things go well." Instead, things have gone straight to hell, and the Royals are likely not going to be much better record-wise than their 2005-2006 predecessors.

If the Royals are going to stink, I'd rather they do it with young players. I don't mean I want them to call up Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, but could we at least see Kila Ka'aihue instead of Mike Jacobs or Jose Guillen? Last year, when the Royals made Ka'aihue a September callup, they still managed to ignore him, only letting him play in 12 games and get 24 plate appearances. They did this so Ross Gload could keep playing, apparently.

Now the Royals are giving Brayan Pena the same treatment. Right now, there are 3 Royal hitters on the roster with an OPS+ better than 100. Billy Butler and Alberto Callaspo get to play all the time and hit in the middle of the order. The other guy? He has fewer plate appearances this season than Tony Pena Jr. and Luis Hernandez combined (those would be OPS+ numbers of 19 and -33, respectively). He has roughly half the plate appearances of Mitch Maier (75 OPS+). Even worse, he has a fourth of the combined plate appearances of Olivo and John Buck (93 and 77 OPS+, respectively). Ladies and gentlemen, Brayan Pena. A

Can Brayan sustain that offense if he plays every day? I don't know (although his minor league numbers look consistently good). But shouldn't the Royals try to find out? This team needs to find undervalued talent wherever they can, so they can save what money they do have to see if they can sign an actual difference-maker or two. Buck is making $2.9 million this year, and Olivo is making $2.7 million. Pena is making $405,000 and outhitting them both.

One other thing about Hillman's quote above: yes, Olivo does have a decent power output this year--if you look at home runs. Olivo leads the team in homers with 16. Yet he only has 12 doubles (and 4 triples). Even though is slugging percentage is a respectable .473, his on-base percentage is low (.272). The man has walked 9 times in 86 games. And yes, Olivo has been good against base-stealers this year, nailing 30% of them (the league average is 24%). But Olivo also has made 6 errors, allowed 10 passed balls, and is the main catcher for a team with 67 wild pitches this year, which leads the AL by almost 20. Pena's defense is supposed to be suspect, but once again, this is something the Royals need to find out before the end of the season.

Win ballgames? Sure, the Royals should try to do that the rest of the year. Put forth a professional effort and all that. But who's to say they wouldn't have a better chance with Pena playing more often?

When You Gonna Wake Up

2009-08-03T20:00:00.004-05:00

...and strengthen the things that remain?
(From "When You Gonna Wake Up," Slow Train Coming)

I was off work last Friday, the non-waiver trade deadline for major league baseball. I was pretty excited to be able to follow along as all the big trades were made, and I was anxious to see what the Royals would do to improve the organization. Obviously, with the major league team in freefall, I did not expect them to add pieces at the major league level, but I was hoping that the Royals could improve the upper levels of the minor league system, which is not exactly teeming with prospects. Baseball America's ranking of the Royals' top 10 prospects last fall included only two players who are at Omaha this season, Kila Ka'aihue and Carlos Rosa.

Instead, the Royals chose to stand pat. Well, that's not entirely true, since they did pick up Josh Anderson, an outfielder whom Detroit had waived. However, Anderson's .282 on-base percentage and .315 slugging percentage do not have me expecting great things. Anyway, the Royals had some trading chips, but did not cash them in.

Obviously, we out here in bloggerland don't know what offers the Royals entertained, or what trades they proposed. Perhaps they were aggressively shopping players but were not offered enough in return. The bottom line is, they didn't get anything done, and the roster remains essentially unchanged from the group that has gone 23-53 since May 7 (that's the worst record in baseball in that timeframe, by the way).

Even worse, the Royals didn't even provide themselves with any payroll flexibility for the coming offseason. According to the awesome Cot's MLB contracts website, the Royals have $51.6 million in payroll obligations for next season, with 10 players eligible for arbitration (meaning their salaries will almost certainly be going up). Since the team's payroll is supposedly maxed out at this year's $70 million, it looks like the Royals will be bringing pretty much the same team back next year. So, if you believe the 29 games at the start of the season were the "real" Royals and the 76 games since have been a fluke, you should be thrilled. On the other hand, if you have a basic grasp of logic and statistics, you are wondering what the 2011 Royals will look like.

This is yet another reason I wish the Royals had really tried to get younger (and a little cheaper for some flexibility in the next couple of offseasons). Take a look at the team's active roster. Go on, I'll wait. OK, note that there are 10 players born in the 1970s. That's not a knock on the 70s--I was born during that decade. But I'm not a major league player, and therefore exiting my prime years as an athlete like those guys are. It's a sad fact of baseball life: you peak around age 27, have a few years just under that level, then start the decline. Obviously, there are exceptions, but that's the general rule.

Compare the Royals to a team with a similar record this year, a similar market size, and a similar recent history: the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates were very active before the trade deadline, making 4 trades in the days leading up to July 31, plus a couple more earlier this season. As a result of those trades, Pittsburgh now has an active roster with ONE player who was born in the 1970s. Most of the Pirates are 24-25 years old now, meaning their best years are at least theoretically ahead of them. If I were a Pirate fan, I would be excited about the next few years.

The Royals have a decent core of players who are approaching age 27, but not nearly enough. Here's who I would consider that core: Brian Bannister, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Zack Greinke, Luke Hochevar, Joakim Soria. And you could throw Alberto Callaspo in there, too. The sad thing is, Bannister is 27 now and Greinke and Hochevar turn 26 this year. The Royals need to find ways to build around this core, and they need to do it soon. Or we'll be looking forward to 2015.

First Half Report Cards: The Position Players

2009-07-17T20:26:00.003-05:00

Since the second half of the season is already underway, let's get to the grades post-haste. The rules are the same as they were for the pitchers--the number after a player's name was my preseason rank of their importance to the Royals and each player is graded on my expectations for him coming into the season.

Willie Bloomquist (12): A-
Has been surprisingly productive and useful. I have no complaints and really wouldn't have minded if the Royals just used him at shortstop the rest of the year.

Billy Butler (2): A-
One of three regulars with an OPS+ over 100. The homer total (8) might not be as high as you'd like, but 27 doubles is really good (tied for fourth in the AL). And he's only 23, so there is a good chance those numbers will go up. Plus, he's proven to be a decent defensive first baseman.

Alberto Callaspo (11): A-
The silver lining in the black cloud of Alex Gordon's injury, which moved Teahen to third and opened a spot for Callaspo. The Royals' OPS+ leader at 113, Callaspo has displayed surprising power. Still doesn't walk much, but at least he doesn't strike out much, either. His defense hasn't been good, though.

Brayan Pena (13): A-
Should play more. Let's find out if he really can hit.

Mark Teahen (7): A-
Filled in well at third base after Alex Gordon went down. Quietly having a very solid season (111 OPS+). I like Teahen a lot, but it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if he were traded in the next couple of weeks; he should bring some sorely needed AAA or MLB-ready talent in return.

Miguel Olivo (9): C+
Why you would ever throw him anything but a slider in the dirt is beyond me, but somehow he leads the team in homers with 13. It's not his fault no one else here can hit homers. Still has an amazingly low three walks this year, which knocks his grade down some. Also, may be the only catcher in the majors who can't, you know, catch (8 passed balls this year, plus the Royals have 47 wild pitches this year).

Coco Crisp (3): C-
Started the season well, and then tailed off, although he was probably playing through the injuries that eventually ended his season. I still feel like trading for him was a good move, but since it's unlikely Crisp will be a Royal next year, I have to say Boston won that deal.

Jose Guillen (5): C-
I waffled between a C- and a D+ here. On the bright side, Guillen is walking more this season and has yet to have a public blowup, so I gave him a break on his grade. Besides, what if he somehow sees this?

Mike Jacobs (8): D+
I liked the trade that brought him here. I was wrong. Please forgive me, dear reader. Almost half the outs he's made this year have been by strikeout (82 0f 200). Seeing the 13 homers he's hit this year (counting tonight's) hasn't been worth all the terrible at-bats and crappy defense.

David DeJesus (4): D
What the heck happened here? His offensive numbers are down, and his defense seems to have fallen off some too. He's only 29, so he shouldn't be falling off this fast. I think DDJ will have a good second half and this season won't look so bad as a whole.

Mitch Maier (N/A): D
OK, I'm convinced. He can't hit.

Tony Pena (14): F-----
I had no expectations for TPJ, and he has met them. Sure, he was designated for assignment, but no one is going to pick him up. So he'll go to Omaha and bide his time, and soon enough Bloomquist or Betancourt will get hurt, and Pena will be back. Maybe we should call him Freddy or Jason.

Mike Aviles (6): Incomplete
Maybe I'm too nice here, but now that we know he was injured pretty much from the get-go, his miserable season makes more sense. This injury just killed the Royals, since it opened the door for a roster featuring Tony Pena Jr., Luis Hernandez AND Tug Hulett, and then led to one of the worst trades in Royals' history. Nobody expected Aviles to duplicate his 2008 numbers, but at the start of the season it looked like the Royals would at least be above-average at shortstop. Now, Royals shortstops have an OPS of .503 this season. Not slugging, OPS. Ugh.

John Buck: (10): Incomplete
90 at-bats just isn't enough to make a judgement, but I think we all know what to expect from Buck by now. I like Buck, but frankly I'd rather see Brayan Pena as the backup catcher. Or even the starter.

Alex Gordon (1): Incomplete
Alex's hip was probably the most damaging injury in the Royals' season, which has seen its share. At the beginning of the season, I felt any Royals offensive improvement depended on Gordon and Butler becoming major league-level three and four hitters. Butler has progressed pretty well, but this looks like a lost season for Gordon, who will not be able to play every day for a while even though he is off the DL to start the second half. On the other hand, maybe his injury rehab will prove beneficial, giving him a chance to remember he's got a lot of talent.

Ryan Freel (N/A): Incomplete
Hasn't done anything to make me dislike him yet.

Luis Hernandez (N/A): Incomplete
Eh. I guess he and TPJ were on the roster at the same time to prove they weren't the same person.

Tug Hulett (N/A): Incomplete
Who knows? We never saw enough of him to say. It was very important Hernandez and TPJ get to play more.

First Half Report Cards: The Pitchers

2009-07-16T18:47:00.004-05:00

The first half of the season is in the books. Thank God. Let's see where we stand as the second half of the season starts. These grades are based on my expectation for each player at the start of the season. The number in parentheses after the player name is where I ranked their importance to the Royals at the start of the season (pitchers and position players were ranked separately). If a player was not on the Opening Day roster, they were not ranked.
Today, the pitchers; tomorrow, position players.

Zack Greinke (1): A
The Royals' star pupil tailed off slightly in May and June, but by then he had set the bar almost impossibly high. Zack is easily the ace of the staff and might be the most exciting Royal since, I don't know, Bo Jackson? The difference is that Zack is harnessing his incredible talent, while Bo only showed us some flashes of his. Zack has to be the favorite for the AL Cy Young award, an amazing feat on a team that still has a chance to lose 100 games.

Brian Bannister (N/A): A-
Perhaps he was due for a bounceback after a tough year last year. The Royals must hope that Banny has figured out how to pitch effectively despite not having outstanding stuff. Still, a rotation that has Bannister at the back end is a pretty good rotation.

Luke Hochevar (N/A): B
His first two outings were horrible, but since then he's been pretty good (52 IP, 4.15 ERA, 24 K, 15 BB). Needs to cut down on the homers he allows (9 so far this season). Will probably never be the star you'd hope to get with an #1 overall draft pick, but he has shown the ability to be a decent major league starter, which is still valuable.

Jamey Wright (10): C
Had some good outings, especially early in the year. After that, Hillman decided perhaps Wright was a setup guy. That didn't work, so it was back to middle relief. Hasn't done much to get on my bad side, but I wouldn't be signing him to a long-term contract, either. Like most middle relievers, he's just a guy.

John Bale (N/A): C-
Nothing much to report here.

Roman Colon (N/A): C-
Hasn't done much to impress me either way.

Kyle Farnsworth (9): C-
See Sidney Ponson's entry. Sure, the Opening Day homer to Jim Thome was horrible, but he never should have been placed in that situation by Hillman to begin with. Professor Farnsworth compiled some decent numbers, but they were mainly in mop-up situations. If I were to grade the fact the Royals signed him to begin with, I would be giving an "F." But he hasn't been horrible, just not worth the $4.25 million he's getting this year. It would have been nice to spend that money somewhere else.

Gil Meche (2): C-
An odd season for the Royals' highest-paid pitcher. He started out well, then had some rough starts, possibly because of a bad back. Then he had another stretch of solid starts and is now scuffling a little bit again. It doesn't help that his manager seems willing to pitch him until his arm falls off.

Sidney Ponson (N/A): C-
As the great Al Bundy once said, "I haven't expected much, and Lord knows I've gotten it." When you sign a mediocre major leaguer at the end of spring training because he had a good showing in the World Baseball Classic, you don't expect Cy Young. He had a couple of decent starts early before being moved to the bullpen. Ponson has allowed at least one run in each of his 11 appearances this year.

Joakim Soria (3): C-
Remember, these grades aren't based on just performance, but performance measured against expectations. Now, it's not Soria's fault he got hurt, just as it's not his fault Trey Hillman seemingly picked the worst times to use him before he got hurt. But Soria just hasn't had much impact on this season, which speaks to the Royals' inability to score runs and get leads as well as to the stupidity of using your best pitcher to protect 3-run leads in the 9th (or, more often in Soria's case, to "get some work" in a 12-3 game). On the bright side, Soria did look much better in his last few outings before the break.

Bruce Chen (N/A): D+
Meh. Two OK starts, two bad ones. Organizational depth at its finest!

Ron Mahay (7): D+
Inexplicably was not traded last year when his value was highest. Now he's a moderately effective reliever who could be dealt at the trade deadline, but probably won't bring much in trade since he's a free agent after the season.

Kyle Davies (4): D
Coming off that great September last season, Davies has made a case as Most Disappointing Royal (non-injured division). A 5.76 ERA, 14 homers allowed in 14 games, and 41 walks against 54 strikeouts all make me wonder if Davies will ever amount to anything at the major league level. To be fair, he has done well at Omaha since being demoted in June. And he is still only 25, so there is still a little hope.

Robinson Tejeda (6): D
Showed some potential last year, but has regressed this year, especially in the control department. Already has more walks than he did all last season.

Juan Cruz (5): D-
Another entry in the Most Disappointing Royal contest. This is the one move Dayton Moore made in the offseason that was widely viewed as a positive, which just goes to show that Joaquin Andujar was right ("youneverknow"). I don't know if he's lost velocity, control or just had a long slump, but his strikeout rate is way down from where it has been in his career.

Horacio Ramirez (11): F
An "F" signing, and an "F" performance. At least it only took the Royals 19 appearances to figure it out (/eyeroll).

Doug Waechter (8): Incomplete
Only pitched in 3 games before getting hurt.

A Little More Ranting

2009-07-11T10:08:00.003-05:00

A few more thoughts on the Betancourt trade...

1. I failed to mention that Betancourt's defense doesn't make up for his offensive liabilities. Defensive stats in baseball are still kind of rough, and I have a hard time wrapping my head around the really advanced ones. That doesn't mean they are not accurate or valuable, just that they're complex. But every defensive stat I've seen in reference to this trade makes Betancourt look like a below-average shortstop. I would feel better about acquiring a below-average hitter at a prime defensive position if he were actually an above-average fielder. But he's not.

2. Perhaps Dayton Moore thinks OBP stands for "Outs Batting Percentage" and therefore thinks a lower number is better. I hate to harp on this, but it's very frustrating for me because it is such a basic concept. You cannot score runs without players who get on base. And the Royals seemingly seek out players who cannot get on base. With Betancourt on board, the Royals could conceivably run out a lineup most days with three players who do not get on base even 30% of the time: Betancourt, Miguel Olivo, and Mike Jacobs. Of course, Moore got all three of these guys. Trey Hillman could also let Mitch Maier start in the outfield; that would give the Royals four guys who get on base less than 30% of the time. At least Moore didn't acquire him.

3. I always thought teams that were out of it by the All-Star Break were supposed to acquire prospects, not trade away a couple of them to fill a position that could have been filled for the remainder of the season by someone already on the roster. And what does it say about Betancourt that the Mariners, only 4.5 games out in their division this morning, traded away their starting shortstop for two minor leaguers who won't help them win this year? It tells me they were sick of him.

Wisdom Is Thrown Into Jail

2009-07-10T16:47:00.004-05:00

...it rots in a cell, is misguided as hell, leaving no one to pick up a trail
(From "Political World," Oh Mercy)

The Royals have traded for shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, and frankly, I don't understand why. We know Dayton Moore has had a mancrush on Betancourt for a while, since he supposedly once wanted to trade Billy Butler to Seattle for him, a deal every Royal fan should be thankful never happened.

In my opinion, the Royals' biggest problem this year is offense; specifically, an inability to get on base. The Royals could survive their lack of power if they were getting on base more regularly, but of course they have the worst on-base percentage in the American League (in fact, they are tied with San Francisco for the worst in baseball). Betancourt is unlikely to do anything to help that. He currently has an OBP of .278. That's horrible. In fact, the only Royal regular with a lower OBP is catcher Miguel Olivo, who is at .272 and can claim he has reached base on strikeouts as often as he has on walks this season (3 of each). But at least Olivo is leading the team in homers with 13. Betancourt has never even reached double digits in a season in that category.

Betancourt is currently on the disabled list with a hamstring injury, but that is no excuse for such a horrendous OBP. And this is who Betancourt is. He's never had an OBP over .310 in a season. Even for someone who's played in a pitcher's park, he has little power; his highest slugging percentage was .418 in 2007. And he doesn't even steal bases well, with only 24 in his five seasons, against 20 times caught stealing.

Essentially, the Royals have added another player with no special offensive skill, a player who in fact is below league average offensively. Betancourt's OPS+ is 63 this season (100 is league average). That's a couple of points better than Mitch Maier. That's not good enough. Although he has averaged an 88 OPS+ in his three full MLB seasons, that's still below average.

Even worse, Betancourt is 27, so this is theoretically his peak season. He is unlikely to get any better, and in fact will probably decline from his already modest offensive output. And his contract runs through 2011, with a club option for 2012, meaning the Royals are likely stuck with this on-base sinkhole for two seasons.

And I haven't even mentioned the fact the Royals gave up not one, but two minor league pitchers for this. One of those pitchers, Danny Cortes, was considered one of the Royals' best pitching prospects, even though he has struggled at the AA level this year. Look for him to crack the Mariners' rotation about the time the Royals decline that 2012 option on Betancourt.

Finally, I don't understand this move in the big picture of the major league roster. Betancourt's offensive numbers are not even as good as Willie Bloomquist's have been this season. Sure, Bloomquist isn't really a shortstop, but the Royals have already made clear they don't consider defense a priority. Presumably, Betancourt will be the fulltime shortstop and Bloomquist will go back to filling in where needed at multiple positions, thereby weakening an already pitiful offense. And this is also doesn't make sense for next year, when Mike Aviles will at some point return from his Tommy John surgery. Aviles may never be the offensive player he was last year, but he figures to be better than Betancourt. Yet he may now be without a position, since the Royals are unlikely to move him to second and replace Alberto Callaspo.

Then again, Callaspo is one of three full-time players on the Royals roster with an OPS+ over 100. So perhaps he is targeted for replacement too; he obviously does not fit with the Royals' team concept.

How Does It Freel?

2009-07-07T17:00:00.003-05:00

The Royals have traded for infielder/outfielder Ryan Freel. In my last post, I almost advocated the Royals pick up Freel, who had been designated for assignment by the Cubs. I figured he'd clear waivers and be a free agent, though. Apparently the Royals weren't sure, so they will be giving up a player to be named later. That's the only part of this deal I don't like. Sure, the Royals won't be giving up a top prospect, but I hate to give up any minor leaguer for a stopgap.

I'm reserving full judgement until I see who the Royals give up and if this leads to any other moves at the major league level. When I was thinking the Royals should add Freel, it was with the assumption they would release Tony Pena Jr. or send Luis Hernandez to the minor leagues, put Willie Bloomquist at shortstop full time, and use Freel as a fourth outfielder. If they do that, I think this is an OK move, although it's not going to vault the Royals into contention.

On the other hand, if this is a precursor to a trade of Mark Teahen or David DeJesus, I am not happy because there is no way Freel can replace their offense. And offense is one area the Royals cannot afford to weaken.

At least the Royals have added another layer of crazy to their team. With Jose Guillen, Kyle Farnsworth and Miguel Olivo already on the roster, I feel sorry for any team that tries to start something with the Royals.

All things considered though, I'd be more impressed if the Royals had added Anna Friel. I'd certainly be going to more games...

You Could Have Done Better But I Don't Mind

2009-07-04T10:33:00.005-05:00

...you just kinda wasted my precious time, but don't think twice, it's all right.
(From "Don't Think Twice, It's All Right," The Freewheelin' Bob Dylan)

I didn't intend to take a month off, but one thing about buying a house and moving--it has a way of putting the rest of your life on hold. At the same time, the Royals haven't exactly been an inspiration to write about lately. But in the last week or so, as they've found new lows on and off the field, the frustration level has been building. I don't know what we did as Royals fans before the internet came along to let us publicly vent. Let's rant...

It's tough to take this franchise seriously anymore. They say one thing and do another. They don't seem to have a clue on how to construct a decent roster. And then they don't seem to have any idea how to avoid alienating fans.

I liked the trades for Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs when they happened. And since Crisp is out for the year and probably was hurt when he did play this year, it's tough to make a final judgement on that deal (certainly, the Red Sox look like they got the better of it, but I still think it was a good trade since you can't predict season-ending injuries). But the Jacobs trade...I was wrong. He hasn't hit enough homers to make up for his lack of defense or on-base percentage. I'm sick of the Royals talking about the importance of OBP and then acquiring players who never walk. Everyone knew when the trade happened that Jacobs would not have a good OBP or walk total, yet he is second on the team (behind Crisp) with 25 walks. By comparison, Joe Mauer has 32 walks even though he's only played 56 games! With Crisp out, Jacobs is the only Royal on pace for 50 walks. As a team, the Royals are 13th in the AL in walks (shame on you, Seattle, for being behind the Royals in this category). Of course, they're last in on-base percentage. It's no wonder they can't score runs.

For the short term, the Royals are probably stuck in this mess. They could attempt to trade Jacobs and bring Kila Ka'aihue up from Omaha--he already has 60 walks in 78 games for Omaha. It's unlikely they'd get much for Jacobs, but it looks like time to move on from this experiment. Kila probably wouldn't walk as much at the major league level, but he would be an improvement.

Other options might include bringing up outfielder Scott Thorman (.296/.373./577 in 53 games for the O-Royals) or letting utility infielder Tug Hulett play a little more (he had a .388 OBP in 46 games at Omaha but has only 14 major league plate appearances this year). Thorman is 27, so it's not like he's a hot prospect, but he could help.

Hulett is a symptom of another Royals' problem, the inability to construct a roster of 25 useful players. Right now, the Royals are carrying 3 utility infielders, and two of them are sorry excuses for big league hitters: Tony Pena Jr. and Luis Hernandez. This doesn't count Willie Bloomquist, who has played every position except pitcher and catcher in his 8 big-league seasons. TPJ is following up his epic OPS+ of 7 last year with a -32 this year (remember, a 100 OPS+ is league average). Somehow, Hernandez has been slightly better, posting a sterling OPS+ of 19 this year. There is no reason for a major league club to carry both of these guys and a guy like Hulett, who actually has a -62 OPS+ (I'm cutting him a break because he only has 14 plate appearances). Pena in particular has shown he cannot hit at the major league level.

Yet if you look at the roster on the Royals' website, there are only 3 outfielders listed. This is another reason to bring Thorman up or otherwise change the roster. Bloomquist is not a good hitter, but compared to Pena and Hernandez, he's freaking awesome. Put him at shortstop for the rest of this year, cut Pena, and choose between Hulett and Hernandez for your middle infield backup.

I know injuries have really affected this team. I'm sure Dayton Moore did not have this roster in mind at the start of the season. And I know building an entire organization takes time, so the Royals do not have the depth they would like at Omaha or in AA ball at Northwest Arkansas. But there is no reason Trey Hillman should have to pinch-hit for Pena with Hernandez, then hit for Hernandez with Hulett, as he did in a game this week. There is no reason he should have to have a lineup where Hernandez hits 7th, Mitch Maier (75 OPS+) hits 8th, and Pena hits 9th, as he did Saturday night. This isn't a defense of Hillman; I don't believe he's done a good job managing the pieces he's been given. But the pieces he's been given signal an organizational failure, in my opinion.

Finally, the Royals seem to be trying to aggravate the fans they have left. This has been an incredibly frustrating season to be a Royals fan, in part because they were 18-11 at one point (seems like years ago now). But I think it's even worse because many of the Royals' problems are so fundamental. Anybody who has played baseball or softball, or just been a fan for years, probably feels like they can avoid getting doubled off first on a routine fly ball, or catch a grounder hit at them, or not swing at sliders in the dirt over and over. Yet the Royals seem to have trouble with all of these fundamentals and more, like bunting.

It will take an organizational refocus to fix these problems, and it will not be a quick fix most likely. But the Royals can and need to look for defensive players in the coming trade season and beyond. It appears the Royals have good enough pitching to keep them in games; better defensive play will give them a better chance to win more of those games.

I've been a Royals fan for more than 25 years now. I don't know how to stop being one. But this season has been so aggravating that it is tempting to spend more time reading or going to movies or almost anything to avoid sitting through another loss where the starting pitcher does well, the offense stinks, a couple of defensive lapses lead to some cheap runs, and the bullpen gives up a couple of runs on their own, leading to a 5-1 loss. This can't go on like this, and I'll be interested to see how the organization goes about fixing it.

Week 8 In Review

2009-05-31T22:08:00.003-05:00

It sucked. The end.

1-5 at home against your division is not the path to October baseball. It looks more and more like April was a fluke, a mirage, an outlier, whatever you want to call it. That team is gone, and apparently is not coming back.

It took the Royals 24 days to go from 7 games over .500 and 3 games in front of the division to 4 under and 5.5 out of first. And now they get to go play three games in Tampa (the Rays have scored the most runs in baseball this year) and three in Toronto (the Blue Jays are only 18-7 at home this season). The Royals are only two games ahead of Cleveland; there is a very good chance they will go from first place on May 7 to last place on June 7.

So I don't think I'll recap each game from the past week; they were all pretty much the same: lousy pitching, worse hitting and even worse defense. Let's hope for a better week this coming week, although I don't expect that to happen.

The Party's Over

2009-05-30T16:47:00.010-05:00

...and there's less and less to say.
(From "Highlands," Time Out Of Mind)

First off, let me apologize for not having a more regular posting schedule the last few weeks. Buying a house and packing for a move is rather time-consuming, I've found. Also, when you're a neat freak like me, having boxes piled everywhere really takes you out of your comfort zone. Finally, the Royals haven't been really inspiring lately. In fact, they've pretty much resembled our apartment the last three weeks: unorganized, discombobulated, upside-down, a work in progress.

So, allow me to address the last three weeks of Royals baseball thus: What the hell happened? On May 7, the Royals won their sixth game in a row to move to 18-11 on the season. Since then, they've won a total of five games, while losing 14.

Obviously, a collapse like that is a total team effort. No one or two players can make that much difference. As evidence, I present this chart, A Tale of Two Months (Offense Division):

Player	April OPS	May OPS	Difference
Crisp	.865	.621	-.244
DeJesus	.623	.706	+.083
Butler	.807	.799	-.008
Guillen	.691	.856	+.165
Jacobs	.785	.832	+.047
Teahen	.879	.741	-.138
Callaspo	.978	.736	-.242
Olivo	.529	.704	+.175
Aviles	.518	.355	-.163
Bloomquist	.863	.675	-.188
Buck	1.070	.487	-.583

As you can see, several of the Royals' regulars have had a tough month. Some of them should have been expected--Willie Bloomquist, John Buck and Alberto Callaspo were all over 200 points over their career averages. A dropoff was inevitable. Of course, now the pendulum seems to have swung too far the other way for a lot of these guys.

I see three big problems with the Royals' offense in that chart. First, David DeJesus is obviously struggling this year, even though he's been better in May. But DeJesus is only 29, and as far as we know, he's healthy. His career OPS is .775; there is no reason to expect him not to be around that this year. But in the short term, having a left fielder with a .670 OPS is not helpful. In fact, DDJ ranks 15th among AL left fielders in that stat. Since there are only 14 teams in the AL, this is bad news.

The second thing killing KC's offense right now is the possibly injury-related struggles of Coco Crisp. Remember, when the Royals were on fire in late April and early May, it seemed like Crisp was always on base; in fact, his on-base percentage in April was .371, which seemed promising, given his .247 batting average that month. It's true his OPS 125 points higher than his career average, but in May he's almost that many points below it. Crisp has missed the last few games with a sore shoulder; perhaps that has hindered him offensively. His last extra-base hit was a triple back on May 14. The good news is that Crisp's batting average (currently .233) is likely to rebound when he's healthy. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is only .248 this year; his career average is .309. So an important, possibly the most important, cog in the Royals' offense should improve from his performance this month.

The most baffling hitting performance by a Royal this year has to be Mike Aviles' freefall. Last year, when Aviles was called up and finally inserted in the lineup in Tony Pena Jr.'s place, the Royals offense improved greatly. The Royals put up better OPS numbers in the last four months of the season than they did in the first two. But this year, Aviles has done a terrific impersonation of Pena. TPJ posted an OPS+ (that's OPS normalized for league and position; 100 is league average) of 7. Yeah, 7. This year, Aviles so far has put up a 21. He did finally admit a while back that he's had a forearm injury this year; I hope that has been the source of his problem. I didn't expect him to duplicate last year's numbers, but I was hopeful the Royals would have at least a league average hitter at shortstop this season.

With the loss the Royals finished off while I was writing this, KC is now tied for third in the AL Central and three games under .500 for the first time this season. Sure, it's just three games, and the Royals are not as bad a team as they have played the last three weeks, just like they weren't as good as they looked the first five weeks. But I can't see them climbing back into the race. Detroit looks really good now, and I'm just waiting for the Twins to get hot. The Royals still need to improve their offense if they want to contend.

Week 7 In Review

2009-05-25T11:08:00.003-05:00

After Week 7, the Royals are 22-22. With the Detroit Tigers on a hot streak lately, KC is now in second place, three games back. The Minnesota Twins are 3.5 games out.

Game 39: Tuesday, May 19
KC 6, Cleveland 5

At the time, this looked like a game that might get the Royals back on track. As they had pretty much every game the last couple of weeks, the offense looked lost for most of the evening. Royal-killer Cliff Lee looked like his Cy Young-winning self from last season, and the Royals trailed 5-2 going into the 9th. Although Lee had only thrown 101 pitches, and lefties Mike Jacobs and Mark Teahen would be up second and third in the inning, the Indians put in closer Kerry Wood. It didn’t take long for the Royals to light him up: Jacobs homered, Teahen homered, Miguel Olivo walked (bringing his 2009 total to 2), David DeJesus tripled, Willie Bloomquist hit a sacrifice fly. Five hitters, four runs, one thrilling win.

Game 40: Wednesday, May 20
Cleveland 6, KC 5

For a little bit, it looked like history would repeat itself. The Royals blew a 4-2 lead and trailed 6-5 going into the 9th. The Indians brought Wood in again, and he struggled again. This time, it was control that hurt him, and he walked the bases loaded. But Teahen and DeJesus both struck out, and the Royals could not capitalize. I’m looking these numbers up on Sunday afternoon, but I don’t think the Royals have had a bases-loaded situation since then, so the numbers still apply. For the year, with the bases loaded, the Royals are hitting .167/.220/.278. That’s terrible, obviously. It could just be a small sample size (that only covers 41 plate appearances), but I can’t think of a reason why the Royals would do so poorly in that particular situation.

Game 41: Thursday, May 21
Cleveland 8, KC 3

A thoroughly forgettable game, even though Zack Greinke started for the Royals. Unfortunately, a weak offense and an ineffective bullpen let Cleveland leave town with two wins in three games. In fact, in a stretch where the Royals played all three last-place teams in the AL, they only managed a 3-6 record. That could sting later in the season.

Game 42: Friday, May 22
St. Louis 5, KC 0

Let’s see, ineffective offense (five hits, three walks)…check. Crappy bullpen work (two innings, three runs)… check. Loss…check.

Game 43: Saturday, May 23
St. Louis 5, KC 0

Essentially the same game as the night before, this loss put the Royals under .500 for the first time since April 11. After the game, the Royals sent starter Luke Hochevar back to Omaha, although he was at least decent in this start. The Royals will go with a four-man rotation for a couple of weeks.

Game 44: Sunday, May 24
KC 3, St. Louis 2

A solid performance all the way around…well, I suppose the offense could have done a little bit better, but at least they scored runs in this one. Brian Bannister was very good, pitching six innings and only allowing two runs. Apparently the Royals’ pitchers decided they needed to provide the offense as well, since Bannister singled to drive in the Royals’ second run. Actually, a couple of defensive lapses (a bobble by Jose Guillen in right field, a poor throw by Coco Crisp in center field) were partially responsible for the Cardinals’ runs. After those two St. Louis runs tied the game, the Royals got the lead right back on a hustle double by Willie Bloomquist and a single by Mike Jacobs. Solid relief pitching by John Bale, fresh off the disabled list, kept the Royals in the lead. Juan Cruz survived some scary moments in the 9th for the save.

The Week Ahead

Let’s be honest here. The Royals have really stunk for two straight weeks. In fact, since May 7, they’ve lost as many games as they did in the first five weeks of the season. It is a testament to the weakness of the division that they are still really in the race. Which means, if they can figure out a way to get back on track this week, the season may not be over yet. They have six home games against division opponents this week; first up, the team the Royals are chasing, the Detroit Tigers. Next, the Chicago White Sox. This is the time for the Royals to put up or shut up, so to speak, because after this, the Royals have a nine-game road trip against some very good teams.

Week 6 In Review

2009-05-17T21:39:00.002-05:00

After Week 6, the Royals are 20-18. That puts them one game behind Detroit—actually, the Royals have the same number of wins as the Tigers, but have two more losses. Minnesota is now three games back, Chicago is five back, and Cleveland is 7.5 games back. The Royals, despite their recent struggles, are still on pace to win 85 games this year.

Game 33: Tuesday, May 12
Oakland 12, KC 3

A disappointing 2009 debut for Luke Hochevar, who only lasted two innings before departing on the wrong end of an 8-0 score. The A’s came into this game with the second-fewest runs scored in the AL this season. There wasn’t much to say about this one—blowouts do happen to everyone in baseball. It is a little disconcerting that Hochevar had such a bad outing, since the Royals really need him to develop, even if all he ever becomes is a solid third starter. Starting pitching is so expensive to buy in free agency or acquire in trade, a small-market team like Kansas City must develop as many pitchers as possible. Hochevar has shown flashes of ability; the Royals must hope he can become an asset soon.

Game 34: Wednesday, May 13
Oakland 7, KC 2

The West Coast road trip came to a merciful end with the Royals’ fifth loss in a row. The Royals actually hung around in this one, but Brian Bannister left in the sixth inning with shoulder stiffness and the bullpen could not keep the A’s in check. Oakland scored two runs in the sixth and five more in the seventh to pull away. The Royals’ West Coast offense? Five games, nine runs, 33 hits, three homers (all solo), and only 12 walks. Not good.

Game 35: Thursday, May 14
Baltimore 9, KC 5

Six losses in a row. The Royals can add Gil Meche to their growing list of concerns. Meche only lasted 4 1/3 innings, allowing five runs on six hits and only striking out one hitter. In his last four starts, Meche has pitched a total of 19 2/3 innings, allowing 18 runs (16 earned) on 27 hits, with 13 strikeouts and 12 walks. Meanwhile, the bullpen struggled through this one too. After the Royals scored two runs in the fifth inning to pull within 5-4, Baltimore scored three more runs in the sixth off Robinson Tejeda and Ron Mahay to put the game away.

Game 36: Friday,May 15
KC 8, Baltimore 1

Finally! A win! A pretty easy one, too, behind another strong outing from Zack Greinke and a three-run homer from Miguel Olivo. Greinke pitched seven innings, holding Baltimore to one run on six hits. He did actually struggle a little, allowing seven baserunners in the first three innings. But after that, he was dominant. Mike Jacobs led off the fourth with a homer, then four hitters later, Olivo launched one into the left-field seats to break the game open. Kudos to the fans who stuck around through a rain delay of 2 hours, 30 minutes. With Greinke on the mound, a Buck Night promotion and fireworks scheduled after the game, the Royals had a sellout crowd. About 25,000 were there for the first pitch.

Game 37: Saturday, May 16
Baltimore 3, KC 2

The offense went back into hibernation, and a couple of soft Baltimore runs cost the Royals another game. I’d say starter Kyle Davies deserved better, but since he walked Brian Roberts leading off the game, then allowed him to steal second and third before throwing a wild pitch to let him score, and then put the eventual winning run in scoring position with another wild pitch, perhaps he didn’t deserve better.

Game 38: Sunday, May 17
KC 7, Baltimore 4

A weird game, but the Royals needed a win, so they’ll take it. Down 3-1 in the sixth inning, the Royals looked lethargic. They looked flat. They looked like they were on their way to another loss. They’d already committed three errors, thrown a wild pitch and only collected two hits. Their starting pitcher (Hochevar) had already been pulled from the game.

Then the offense had a mini-explosion, scoring three runs on four straight hits to take the lead. After giving it up in the eighth, the Royals pulled ahead for good, using a suicide squeeze (Coco Crisp bunting, John Buck running) for an insurance run.

I have to give Trey Hillman some credit for this win. First, pulling Hochevar in the fourth inning of a 3-1 game was gutsy. Hochevar had struggled, and there were two runners on, but I think most managers would leave him in. The fact that Hillman managed the game this way shows me he understood how badly the Royals needed a win. Teams that want to win division titles cannot lose three of four games at home to last-place teams. The bullpen rewarded Hillman with 5 2/3 innings of excellent pitching, only allowing one run, one hit, and one walk.

Second, Hillman picked an excellent time for the squeeze play, with Crisp batting. Crisp seems to be one of those players who just does everything well. He actually fouled off the first squeeze attempt, but did a great job on the next pitch to get it down.

Finally, although lineup construction doesn’t matter a lot in the grand scheme, Hillman did move Alberto Callaspo to the second spot and moved David DeJesus down to seventh in the order. Callaspo has been excellent so far this year (.341/.396/.524), while DeJesus has struggled some (.237/.288/.393). The move paid off, as Callaspo ignited the three-run fourth inning with a leadoff single, while DeJesus went 2-4 and scored two runs, including the eventual game-winner.

The Week Ahead

After an off-day Monday, the Royals will face the struggling Cleveland Indians for three home games, then start interleague play with a trip to St. Louis. The Royals need to make some hay against the Indians, and they have a chance to really bury Cleveland in the standings.

Mea Culpa

2009-05-15T17:00:00.000-05:00

OK, I can't take it anymore. Last Wednesday I wrote a glowing piece about the Royals and their chances to contend. Sure, I prefaced it by saying lots of bad things could happen. But, down deep, I didn't believe that they would. Or at least that they would happen so soon.

Nine days and a six-game losing streak later, I'm here to throw myself at the mercy of the baseball gods. Obviously, my optimism was misplaced and an affront to baseball karma.

I can't believe I made this mistake. I've been a Royals fan for 26 years. I should have known better. I lived through 490 losses in the last five seasons; you'd think the optimism would have been beaten out of me by now.

So here we go: I was wrong. This is not a good team. There is no way they win 90 games; they'll probably lose 90. Now they're doing teams bad things do to lose games, like throw double-play balls into center field, miss cutoff men, and walk speedy number 9 hitters to set the table for the top of the lineup. Oh yeah, and scoring 12 runs in six games. This will not be a fun summer for Royals fans; it will be the usual miserable, hot, long summer.

(Now that that's out of the way, let's hope this helps snap this losing streak.)

Week 5 In Review

2009-05-11T17:00:00.003-05:00

After Week 5, the Royals are 18-14. That’s technically good for second place, as they are percentage points behind Detroit. Both teams are three games ahead of Minnesota and Chicago.

Game 26: Monday, May 4
KC 3, Chicago 0

Simple formula. Zack Greinke + 3 runs = win. Once again, it requires a better writer than me to properly describe Greinke’s work. A complete game shutout, 10 strikeouts, no walks, only four hits. And two of those hits could have been errors. A David DeJesus homer was the Royals’ offensive highlight; they left 10 men on base.

Game 27: Tuesday, May 5
KC 8, Chicago 7 (11 innings)

A wild comeback win, capped by John Buck’s game-winning single in the 11th inning, gave the Royals a sweep of the White Sox. Kyle Davies struggled again, and the Sox got leads of 4-0 and 5-1 before the Royals came back, tied it, dodged a couple of bullets, blew a couple of chances to win the game, and finally emerged with the win.

Game 28: Wednesday, May 6
KC 9 , Seattle 1

The Royals jumped on Mariners starter Carlos Silva early and often, with three runs in the first and two more in the third. Sidney Ponson was solid for 7 1/3 innings, allowing eight hits but only one walk. Billy Butler, Mike Jacobs and Mark Teahen all had three hits. Just a great game all around for the Royals. A sign of a good team is the ability to win the blowout games; this game put KC at 6-3 this season in games decided by five runs or more. One-run games can often be decided by luck or using Kyle Farnsworth in key situations, but the good teams win big more often than they lose big.

Game 29: Thursday, May 7
KC 3, Seattle 1

Another strong pitching performance by a Royals starter; in this case it was Brian Bannister. Actually, Bannister struggled through the first inning, but didn’t allow any runs. The Royals offense scraped some runs together against longtime nemesis Jarrod Washburn, and were able to weather an unusually shaky ninth inning from Joakim Soria for the win. Afterwards, Soria said he was just rusty; the Royals had better hope it’s that and not an injury.

Game 30: Friday, May 8
Los Angeles 4, KC 1

Somewhere over the Rocky Mountains, the Royals offense apparently forgot how to work counts, lay off bad pitches, and hit. This was a frustrating showing from the offense, against journeyman starter Matt Palmer. To make matters worse, when KC did score a run in the sixth inning to make the score 2-1, they gave up two in the bottom of the inning when Jose Guillen failed to catch a fly ball near the right field line. Howie Kendrick took advantage, circling the bases for a two-run inside-the-park home run that put the game away. Royals starter Gil Meche deserved better, even though he wasn’t at his best (5 2/3 innings, eight hits, four earned runs—although if Guillen’s misplay had been scored an error, it would have been two earned runs).

Game 31: Saturday, May 9
Los Angeles 1, KC 0

Another frustrating outing for the Royals’ offense, resulting in Greinke’s first loss of the season. Not that he deserved it. Sure, he wasn’t quite at the 1968-Bob Gibson level he was at before, but still. Eight innings, four hits, no walks, five strikeouts, and one earned run ought to be good enough for a win. Royal hitters could only manage five hits and one walk against the Angels’ Joe Saunders.

Game 32: Sunday, May 10
Los Angeles 4, KC 3

The Royals completed their lost weekend with a bumbling, Bad-News-Royals inning worthy of their 2005 predecessors. Ahead 3-1 in the seventh, after Davies’ best outing in a while and an offensive explosion (compared to the first two games of the series, anyway), the Royals imploded defensively. Throwing error by Jamey Wright, a missed tag by Alberto Callaspo on a stolen base, and then somehow Miguel Olivo failed to catch a perfect throw from Guillen which would have nailed the tying run at home. Seriously, “catcher” is Olivo’s position, yet he sometimes seems unable to, you know, catch. Of course, the runner who advanced to second on this misplay ended up scoring the winning run.

The Week Ahead

The Royals get their first off day since April 20 on Monday, then complete their West Coast trip with two games in Oakland. After that, it’s four games at home against Baltimore. Although the Orioles are in last place, they have had the Royals’ number in the past few seasons. The last time KC took the season series between the two was 2003; the Orioles are 27-9 against the Royals since, including a perfect 7-0 in 2007. Even better, the Royals put Soria on the DL after Sunday’s game; Luke Hochevar was called up and will make his 2009 major league debut Tuesday night in Oakland while Ponson will move to the bullpen.

This is a scary time for Royals fans, especially if they’re worriers by nature like I am. We’ve all seen this script before from the Royals; usually it results in a double-digit losing streak. If this team is really different, they will figure out a way to stop this before it gets out of hand.

I’m trying to talk myself—and, by extension, any other Royals fans who need it--off the ledge. Here are a couple of things to consider:

First, the Royals’ offense, even after a pathetic four-game stretch, still has an OPS+ of 101. That means they have a slightly-above-league-average offense. It may not sound like much, but the last time the Royals finished the season with an OPS+ of 100 or better was…well, I’ll let you guess. 2003? Nope. 1999 or 2000, when Damon/Sweeney/Beltran/Dye were here? Nope. 1993 or 1994, the last really good Royals teams? Keep trying. Actually, it was 1991. Yes, there’s a lot of season left, but this may be the Royals’ best offense in nearly 20 years. Assuming the pitching stays close to where it has been, the Royals should still be OK if they can keep the offense at or near the level it’s been so far.

Second, the Royals still have the second-best run differential in the AL at +27—their Pythagorean record is actually 19-13, so you could say they’ve been slightly unlucky. And KC’s actual winning percentage of .563 translates to 91 wins over a full season.

Third, if you’re into signs, as I finished that last paragraph, Journey’s “Don’t Stop Believin’” came on my satellite radio. Just take that for what it’s worth.

Feel Like My Soul Is Beginning To Expand

2009-05-06T17:00:00.001-05:00

...look into my heart and you will sort of understand.
(From "Thunder On The Mountain," Modern Times)

I know, it's only 27 games in. There are still 135 games left. Lots of things can happen. There could be injuries or prolonged slumps or ineffective pitchers. Or one of the other AL Central teams could catch fire.

I don't care about any of that right now. I'm a believer.

After last night's crazy win, I'm throwing caution to the wind. I'm in. 90 wins? Sure, why not? Division title? You bet.

I'm telling you right now, this is a good Royals team. Not just "good for the Royals" (meaning 75 wins). Good enough to win the division.

I see signs. I see this team doing things good teams do to win. Things like the bullpen pitching seven innings and only allowing one run to pick up a struggling starter. Things like hitters working the count, fouling off pitches to get a hittable pitch or a walk. Seriously, 11 walks last night? Even in 11 innings, that's a staggering number for a Royals team, the first time they've had that many since June 20, 2006 (not that that was a good Royals team, but they were playing the equally woeful Pirates).

The Royals have specialized in losing the last few years, so I feel like an expert on the different ways they've come up with to lose: the Groin Kick, where they coughed up a big lead; the Generic Loss, where they maybe lose 4-3 but didn't really do anything awful; the Embarrassment, where they lose 15-3; and the Roll Over and Die, where the other team scored some early runs and the Royals' offense did little or nothing.

Last night looked like a classic Roll Over and Die. The Sox took a 4-0 lead, and I decided maybe the NHL playoffs would be a little more interesting. When I checked back in, it was 5-1 Sox, but the Royals had two on and Mike Jacobs at the plate. When his home run cleared the fence (not sure it actually ever landed), I thought the game might get interesting. Of course, then the White Sox answered with two more runs, and I mentally put this one in the loss column.

I forgot that the Royals had mounted a furious comeback just two days before in Minnesota. And that they had come back from three runs down to tie the score last Friday. Luckily, the guys in that first-base dugout didn't forget. They kept playing. No Roll Over and Die on this night. Not when they left the bases loaded in the sixth after pulling to within one run. Not when they had the go-ahead run thrown out at home in the seventh. Not when they left two runners on in the eighth, not when A.J. Pierzynski tripled in the ninth to give the White Sox a chance for a lead, not when White Sox thumpers Carlos Quentin and Jim Thome came up in the 10th with the go-ahead run at second base.

The attitude is different. It just feels different. The things I read in the Star (like this story or like Jose Guillen telling Zack Greinke, "Let's show the White Sox that we're for real this year" as related in this story), the body language of the players when I watch on TV or at the ballpark, and just watching this team battle--it just feels differently than any Royals season in a long time.

Let me tell you a story from a different sport. I've been a KU football fan for years. No, really. Like, since I was 8 or 9. Obviously, I saw lots of bad football except for a few years in the 90s and then the middle part of this decade. Until 2007, when KU had a year for the ages, losing one game all year and winning the Orange Bowl. We try to go to one or two games a year; our game that year was a 55-3 dismantling of Florida International. I'd heard all the badmouthing about KU's schedule that year, and there was plenty of it for the rest of the year. But when I saw that team in person, I realized that it didn't matter who they played, that was a damned good team.

I'm starting to get that feeling about this Royals team. They probably won't be as dominant as that KU team was, but I believe now that they can stay in the race all season. Get ready, Royals fans. This should be a fun summer.

Will I Be Able To Count On You?

2009-05-04T17:00:00.001-05:00

...or is your love in vain?
(From "Is Your Love In Vain," Street Legal)

Is the Royals' offense sustainable?

At the beginning of this season, I think most Royals fans felt pretty good about the team's pitching. Sure, no one was happy with the presence of Horacio Ramirez and Sidney Ponson in the rotation, and most fans were wary of Kyle Farnsworth in the bullpen and the middle relief in general. But with Gil Meche and Zack Greinke at the top of the rotation and the hope that last September's Kyle Davies would show up this season, plus Joakim Soria and Juan Cruz at the back of the bullpen, there were reasons to believe the pitching could keep the Royals in the race.

That meant the pressure was on the offense to improve from last year. In 2008, the Royals finished 12th in the 14-team American League in runs scored, 12th in on-base percentage, 12th in slugging percentage and 13th in home runs. Dayton Moore gave up two solid relief pitchers to add centerfielder Coco Crisp and first baseman Mike Jacobs, hoping the former would be an improvement in the leadoff spot and the latter would add some slugging ability. There was some skepticism as to how improved the offense would be, since Jacobs only had a .299 OBP last year, about the same as noted free-swinger Jose Guillen's .300.

The Royals are 25 games into 2009. That's still a small sample size, I think. But I also think we can draw some conclusions. Or at least look at the numbers and see if there are any reasons to be optimistic about the offense.

In those 25 games, the Royals have scored 119 runs. True, about a third of that has come in the last 5 games (41 runs). But teams will have good and bad offensive stretches, just like individual players. These will even out over six months. In the first five games of the year, the Royals only scored eight runs. But 49 runs in 10 games sounds a lot better.

Anyway, the Royals are now averaging 4.76 runs per game. The league average is 5.13 runs per game, so the Royals are about 7% below average.

In 2008, the Royals scored 691 runs, an average of 4.27 per game. The league average was 4.78 runs per game, so the Royals were about 11% below average. So the Royals are doing better so far this year. Also note that the Royals are almost at last year's league average.

When I noticed that, I wondered how this year's league average compared with recent years. The answer is, so far scoring in the AL is up. Way up. AL teams are averaging 5.13 runs per game this season, an increase of 7% so far. Going back to 2000, the AL has scored 4.92 runs per game on average. Last year was the lowest RPG number since 2005. It's probably still too early to say that this year's scoring increase is permanent or what the causes may be. But it does look like the Royals still have work to do; I don't think that's a surprise to anyone.

On the other hand, the Royals have only allowed 101 runs so far (thank you, Zack Greinke!). Thus, their expected win-loss record, using the Bill James Pythagorean theorem, is 15-
10. So the Royals really haven't been a fluke. So far, they really have been a .560 win percentage team. By the way, that would be 91 wins over a full season. I don't believe the Royals are that good, especially since I don't expect the pitching to stay this good. But there are reasons to expect the offense to improve; the question is whether that will offset the pitching staff's theoretical dropoff.

Right now, the two best OPS (on-base pct. plus slugging pct.) numbers on the Royals belong to Willie Bloomquist (1.020) and Alberto Callaspo (1.001). A 1.000 OPS is considered tremendous; last year, Albert Pujols led baseball with a 1.114 OPS. Obviously, Bloomquist and Callaspo are not Pujols and are not going to sustain this for an entire year. But to me, the exciting news there is that the players the Royals are counting on to carry the offense are not the ones playing way over their heads.

Mike Aviles led the team with an .833 OPS last year; this year he's at .539. Now, it's doubtful Aviles will be as good as he was last year, but I do not believe he is this bad of a hitter. By comparison, Joey Gathright's OPS last year was .584, and he had no power whatsoever.

David DeJesus was second on the team last year at .818. This year, he's at .663. In four of the five years DeJesus has been a regular, his OPS has been above .763. I expect he will improve as well.

And so it goes. Alex Gordon had a .783 OPS last year; he was only at .507 when he got hurt. I would expect improvement there. Jacobs has a career .813 OPS; he's at .742 right now. Billy Butler has a career .752 OPS; he's at .731 right now. I think Butler has even more room for improvement--he's only 23 and should be on the upswing.

Sure, some of the important Royal hitters are doing better than you would expect--Jose Guillen and Mark Teahen, to name two. The funny thing is that Guillen hasn't even really had one of his hot streaks yet. Due to his injury, he's only played in 12 games and may just be getting back in the groove (he hit two homers last Monday and one Sunday). Guillen's average, OBP and slugging percentage are all up from last year.

One thing that has helped Guillen and the entire Royals offense is an increase in walks. KC had a pitiful walk total of 392 last year; that was last in the league by a wide margin. Enter Coco Crisp. He already has 17 walks after only drawing 35 in 118 games last year. Butler has 12 walks after getting 33 last year in 124 games. Might an understanding of the strike zone be the last step before he starts to hit at a level the Royals expect? Teahen has 10 walks compared with 46 last year in 149 games. Even better, his strikeout rate is down--he's on pace to K 90 times after 131 last year. Even free swingers like Jacobs and Guillen are on pace to have better walk totals than they did last year. As a team, the Royals have 86 walks: that's a pace for 557, which would have put them seventh in the league last year. Seventh is where they are so far this year.

It will be interesting to see if the improved plate discipline continues. I don't know if it's the work of new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer or what, but it is a good sign so far. And I think it will be a good indicator of the Royals' chances to show continued offensive improvement. In turn, that offensive improvement is what they will need to stay in the race all year. The pitching is good enough to win; the offense looks like it can be.

Week 4 in Review

2009-05-03T22:22:00.002-05:00

After Week 4, the Royals are 14-11. That's good for first place in the AL Central, a half-game ahead of Detroit. This is the Royals' latest appearance atop the division since 2003, and the latest they have been three games over .500 since the end of the 2003 season. For comparison's sake, in 2006 it took the Royals until JUNE 4(!) to get 14 wins.

Game 19: Monday, April 27
KC 7, Toronto 1

Another good outing from Brian Bannister, although it was a bit odd. Banny only gave up one hit in seven innings, but walked six. He said the rainy conditions made the baseball slippery and harder to control, but that put a different spin on the ball and apparently made it harder to hit. Obviously, I wouldn't recommend Banny or any other pitcher walk six guys in seven innings, but in this case it worked out. The Royals used two homers from Jose Guillen and a three-run blast from Miguel Olivo to cruise to victory.

Game 20: Tuesday, April 28
Toronto 8, KC 1

Gil Meche struggled from the start of this one, and eventually left in the fourth inning with lower back stiffness. By then, the Blue Jays had a 5-0 lead and the Royals' offense was back in hibernation. Kind of embarrassing, since Toronto starter Scott Richmond is a 29-year-old rookie who spent three years pitching in the independent leagues (just like the Kansas City T-Bones!). Baseball is a funny game, indeed.

The thought of Meche missing time with an injury is concerning, but he turned out to be well enough to start Sunday's game against the Twins. The Royals will have to hope Meche can keep going out there every fifth day. At the beginning of the season, it looked like the Royals had three pitchers they could not afford to lose for any amount of time: Meche, Zack Greinke and Joakim Soria. Soria is already fighting a sore shoulder and hasn't pitched in almost two weeks.

Game 21: Wednesday, April 29
KC 11, Toronto 3

The offense bounced back in a big way, and Zack Greinke gave up his first earned run of the season. Billy Butler had a game to remember, belting two homers and adding a single and a double. Five other Royals had two hits each, while Greinke cruised after giving up a run in the first and another in the third. The Royals blew the game open with two runs in the fourth and four more in the fifth, which is plenty of runs with Greinke pitching like he is right now.

Game 22: Thursday, April 30
KC 8, Toronto 6

This was a crazy game. John Buck hit two triples. The Royals turned six double plays a week after a game in which they hit into six double plays. And the Royals won the four-game series against the AL East leaders. Kyle Davies struggled again, but he did show a knack for getting ground balls when he needed them. The Royals led 8-2 after the fifth inning, and then held on through some shaky bullpen work. The Jays scored one run in the sixth, another in the seventh and two in the eighth before Juan Cruz picked up his first save of the season. It was the first save for a Royal not named "Joakim Soria" since last September 4 (Ramon Ramirez got that one). On an optimistic note, Cruz's appearance in the ninth inning makes me think Trey Hillman at least has figured out Cruz is his second-best relief pitcher.

Game 23: Friday, May 1
Minnesota 7, KC 5

Let's hope this will be the end of the Sidney Ponson experience. Look, he's had a couple of nice starts. But he's also had two lousy ones and a mediocre one. His ERA is 7.16 after this debacle, where he gave up nine hits and seven runs in 4 1/3 innings. And I can't ignore the fact that the Royals are 0-5 when he starts, but 12-6 when anyone else starts. There's a reason he was a free agent during spring training. But for some reason--OK, it's keeping him from reaching arbitration after this year--the Royals refuse to bring up Luke Hochevar to take Ponson's spot.

Even more frustrating than the continued employment of Sir Sidney, the Royals managed to get some offense against usual nemesis Kevin Slowey (4-0 lifetime record against KC with a 2.16 ERA before this game). Yet because Ponson couldn't hold the 2-1 lead and 5-5 tie he was given, it didn't matter. I also don't understand why Hillman let Ponson pitch to Justin Morneau with the game tied in the fifth. The Twins thoughtfully set up their lineup with three lefties in a row (Joe Mauer, Morneau and Jason Kubel. Yet, after the Royals battled back to tie the score at 5-5, Hillman let Ponson face all three of them in the bottom of the fifth. He walked Mauer, gave up a homer to Morneau and a single to Kubel. I'd like to know what made Hillman think Ponson had a chance of getting any of those guys out. I am not fond of the Royals' lefty bullpen options, but at least play the percentages, man. It may not have mattered, as the Twins bullpen dominated the last four innings.

Game 24: Saturday, May 2
KC 10, Minnesota 7 (11 innings)

As crazy as the Thursday game against Toronto was, this one probably topped it for sheer oddity. The teams combined for four errors, and the Royals had three wild pitches and a passed ball. Willie Bloomquist hit his first homer in almost two years. Miguel Olivo had a triple. The normally solid Twins bullpen walked four hitters in the decisive 11th inning, including the winning run. Which means the Royals actually walked four times in one inning. Soria came into the game in the middle of an inning, saved the game by getting out of a man-on-second, one-out situation, and then closed things down. The Royals overcame deficits of 3-2, 4-3, and 6-5 managed to hold on after giving up a 7-6 lead. This is precisely the kind of game the Royals used to lose all the time. Maybe it's a good sign they won this one.

Game 25: Sunday, May 3
KC 7, Minnesota 5

Here's another kind of game the Royals used to lose all the time...day game at the end of a road trip, tough game the night before, Royal-killer on the mound. In this case the Royal killer was Scott Baker, who nearly threw a perfect game against the Royals in 2007. Baker came into this game with a 5-2 record, 2.60 ERA and tidy 52-7 strikeout-walk ratio in his career against the Royals. And he was his usual self in this game. Through six innings, Baker did not allow a hit and had only given up one walk, to Guillen. Meanwhile, the Twins had scored four runs against Meche, although a couple of errors had helped them.

But in the seventh inning, everything changed. Bloomquist broke up the no-hitter, Mark Teahen singled, and Guillen homered. The Royals kept up the momentum with singles by Mike Jacobs and David DeJesus, followed by a double by Alberto Callaspo for a 5-4 Royals lead.

It seems like I pick on Hillman's decisions a lot. I suppose that's because the ones he screws up are more noticeable. It does seem like those usually involve the bullpen somehow, meaning they are more game-changing. I don't really have a problem with most of his lineups or how he doles out playing time, although I do wish Buck would catch a little more often. Overall, I would say Hillman does an average job--maybe a C+ or B- grade. This digression leads me to praising his bullpen usage in this game and even the previous one. Note that these were both close games and Kyle Farnsworth did not see action in either. This is progress. Also note that Soria came into last night's game in a high-leverage situation (winning run on second) even though it was not a save situation. And even though he threw 19 pitches last night, Hillman did not hesitate to let him close this game. But even before that, I liked the fact he used Horacio Ramirez in the seventh to face the lower part of the Twins' order and then the lefty thumpers in the middle. Ramirez gave up two hits, but did not allow a run. Then Jamey Wright pitched a perfect eighth inning; rather than use Cruz (who struggled in the previous game), Hillman used Wright, who has been a pleasant surprise so far. The Royals added some insurance runs, and Soria closed out the game and series win.

The Week Ahead

Well, after I was worried headed into last week, I feel a little more confident about this week. It should be an interesting one, with a four-game homestand before the start of a West Coast road trip. Two games against the White Sox to start, and then two with Seattle and three in Anaheim. Obviously, the first two games of the week are big, with the White Sox one of the teams in the AL Central dogfight. The Mariners are having a good year so far, leading the AL West. The Angels are struggling but are still a talented team. If the offense can keep up the good work (41 runs in the last five games), this could be another good week.

He Got Caught In The Spotlight

2009-04-30T19:03:00.009-05:00

...but when we get to the end, he wants to start all over again.
(From "Stage Fright," Before The Flood)

The day Zack Greinke walked out of spring training with social anxiety disorder in February 2006, I heard about it in the car on the way home from work. I came in the house, flopped down on the couch and told The Amazing Michelle that I wasn't sure it was worth being a Royals fan anymore. I'm sure it was a long diatribe that invoked the names of past Royals pitching disappointments like Jim Pittsley, Jose Rosado, Dan Reichert, Chad Durbin and others. I couldn't believe that this seeming sure thing had apparently fallen through. And this was worse, because it wasn't an arm injury or just an inability to get hitters out. No, this was a mental issue. It seemed like there was no end to the bizarre ways the Royals franchise and fans could be let down.

This is not to belittle or diminish what Greinke was dealing with. I've battled depression and have family members with anxiety disorder. I can't imagine them going out and doing anything with thousands of people watching their every move. And I've certainly been in situations where I didn't want to be working there anymore and hated every minute. At that point in his life, by his own admission, Greinke hated baseball and just wanted to walk away.

I should add that, while I was of course concerned about the Royals, it saddened me to think that someone with so much obvious talent could be walking away from his ability at such a young age. Sure, he had struggled some in the previous season--that was a terrible team he was on, and he obviously was not happy with his situation. But to just walk away and give up on his gifts...well, it was upsetting.

Allard Baird and Buddy Bell may not have done the Royals many favors in their tenures, but we certainly owe them thanks for putting Greinke's personal needs ahead of the team's. It would have been easy for them to demand he stay with the team, but they let him have the time to work out his problems. So Greinke got treatment, and slowly but surely came back to baseball.

He showed plenty of promise last season, but this year Greinke has been simply amazing. Three years ago, on that day that seemed to be the lowest low in Royals' history, it seemed impossible that the story would turn out well. But here we are. Greinke has five wins, is leading all of baseball with a 0.50 ERA, and is tied with Johan Santana for the major league lead in strikeouts. And of course, there's this:

I used to worry about how Greinke would handle the pressure of being the Royals' ace, or how he would react if the Royals were in a pennant race or even the playoffs. Now, I don't worry about the former. And if Greinke keeps pitching anywhere close to this level, I think the Royals have a good chance at the latter. And I think Zack will be just fine then, too.

Week 3 In Review

2009-04-26T19:08:00.003-05:00

After Week 3, the Royals are 9-9. That ties them for second place in the AL Central with Chicago, one game behind Detroit.

Game 13: Tuesday, April 21
Cleveland 8, KC 7

This game was a bummer from the beginning, at least until the Royals mounted a furious comeback that fell short. Sidney Ponson was ineffective, allowing six runs in only 3 1/3 innings. Ponson walked four and gave up eight hits. Meanwhile, the offense could do little against Indians starter Aaron Laffey. For the second time in a week, a pitcher who was in AAA at the start of the season while his major league club gave up 64 runs in eight games absolutely owned the Royals. Laffey gave up seven hits in seven innings, but the Royals grounded into a club-record six double plays. It wasn't until the Indians went to their bullpen that the offense woke up, scoring four runs in the 8th to pull within one run, 6-5. The sixth double play of the night ended that rally, and then Juan Cruz gave up his first runs of the season, a two-run homer by Victor Martinez. That meant David DeJesus' two-run homer in the top of the ninth did not give the Royals a lead, but only brought them back to within one.

This was a discouraging game, as the Royals did not do any of the fundamental stuff they had been doing well so far this season. The offense looked impatient (four walks, but that was because Billy Butler and Willie Bloomquist walked twice each), and Royal pitchers walked nine Indian hitters. Still, I suppose the encouraging thing is that the Royals did not roll over and die; they did make a spirited comeback.

Game 14: Wednesday, April 22
KC 2, Cleveland 0

Banny's back! Recalled from Omaha when Doug Waechter was put on the DL with an elbow strain, Brian Bannister saved Royal Nation from the indignity of another Horacio Ramirez start. Instead of the 2 2/3 inning, 7-run performance I would have expected from HoRam, we got six shutout innings from Bannister. The offense struggled against last year's Cy Young winner, Clif Lee. No surprise there, Lee was 5-0 against the Royals last year. But KC was able to scratch out a couple of runs (I have a feeling I will type that a lot this year). Excellent relief pitching by Jamey Wright (two scoreless innings) and then that Joakim Soria fellow finished it off, although he was a little rusty. I wonder why.

Game 15: Thursday, April 23
Cleveland 5, KC 2

Another frustrating afternoon game. The Royals wasted yet another outstanding effort by Gil Meche, as the offense went 1 for 10 with runners in scoring position, including an epic fail in the fourth inning, when KC loaded the bases with no one out and failed to score. Meche tired in the eighth inning, and Ron Mahay was ineffective in relief. Grady Sizemore capped the inning with a three-run homer for the final margin.

As Mark Teahen told the Star, "This was a team loss." I suppose you could quibble with the decision to let Meche start the eighth inning, but he had been dominant to that point, retiring 16 consecutive hitters. Perhaps he was left in a little too long in the inning, but he still left with the score tied. A couple of errors hurt, and of course the inability to score runs was a killer.

The game result was frustrating, but the fact the Royals could have had a winning road trip is worse. Instead, KC headed home with a 3-3 record on this trip. Also frustrating: another game given away to a divisional opponent. And yet one more frustration: the Royals are now 6-3 when leading after seven innings. With an All-Star closer, this is inexcusable to me; it's even worse given that the bullpen was supposed to be a strength for this team. We all know about Kyle Farnsworth's struggles, and perhaps Hillman has figured out not to use him in close games (he didn't pitch in the last two games in Cleveland, but was in late in the game Tuesday when the Royals were losing 6-1). More worrisome is Mahay's ineffectiveness this season. It seems like he hasn't recovered from the plantar fasciitis that plagued him last year. The Royals need to figure out something quick--they seemingly have two dependable late-inning guys, and Hillman apparently will not use one of them unless he has a lead in the ninth inning.

Game 16: Friday, April 24
KC 6, Detroit 1

Here's something I hope I'll be typing a lot this season: more dominance from ZacK Greinke. I really don't know what else to say about him this year, and it's only April. The run he gave up in this game was his first of the year, and it was unearned. His ERA is still 0.00. Unreal. It's just a joy to watch him pitch now, and I feel certain every time he takes the mound the Royals will win. It's a feeling I don't think I've had since, I dunno, Kevin Appier or David Cone in 1993? Maybe Bret Saberhagen in 1989? Anyway, Zack was as good in this start as he's ever been: another complete game, only three hits and one walk against 10 strikeouts. On offense the Royals were led by Teahen and Coco Crisp, and did a nice job of responding with two runs after the Tigers got the unearned one in the fifth to make the score 3-1.

The win was a nice counterpoint to the bad news of the day: Soria's sore shoulder. The Royals announced that their relief ace was suffering from soreness in his right shoulder and would not pitch for a few days, although they did not put him on the DL. The whole episode seemed odd to me; the Royals admitted Soria had been dealing with this problem since last Saturday in Texas, but did not want to give opposing teams the knowledge that Soria was unavailable. They also claimed this was why Soria did not pitch in that Sunday game in Texas when the Royals blew a 5-3 lead and lost. Yet Soria pitched and saved the game in Cleveland Wednesday.

I love a good conspiracy theory, but I can't convince myself the Royals are trying to cover up Hillman's bullpen misuse by announcing Soria's injury. First off, even if Soria was not available in that Texas game, there was no excuse for bringing Kyle Farnsworth into the game in that situation. Second, I don't doubt Soria has some stiffness--he missed time in spring training for the World Baseball Classic and may not be in complete game shape (I'm not doubting that Soria is a hard worker and takes care of himself, just saying he didn't get as many spring training game innings as he normally would).

I don't like the plan to use a "closer by committee" approach until Soria returns. Juan Cruz is pretty clearly the second-best reliever the Royals have right now; it should be his job for the time being. And if Farnsworth comes into the game in a save situation, I plan to simply turn off the TV and walk away.

Game 17: Saturday, April 25
Detroit 9, KC 1

The Royals were never really in this game. Kyle Davies gave up a two-run homer in the second and another in the fourth, and once again the Royals could not hit Detroit pitcher Zach Miner. If the Tigers' bullpen could have kept an inherited runner from scoring, Miner would now be approaching 30 consecutive scoreless innings in Kauffman Stadium. Perhaps Dayton Moore could swing a trade for this guy. Or perhaps the Royals could develop a better offense. To be fair, they did get five walks and six hits, but it never felt like KC was part of this game. At least they didn't make Hillman decide who to use in a save situation.

Game 18: Sunday, April 26
Detroit 3, KC 2

This game was even more frustrating than the previous one. I think every Royals fan feels good about their chances when Meche, Greinke or Davies start. But when someone else starts (in this case, Ponson) and gives a great effort, the Royals need to get wins in those games. Ponson was very solid in this game, pitching eight innings, striking out seven and walking no one. But the Royals' offense was once again asleep, getting only four hits in the game and doing little with the six walks they were given.

The Week Ahead

The Royals have a full week ahead, with four games at home against Toronto before playing three games in Minnesota. I have to admit, I'm very nervous about this week and what it means to the Royals season. Think back to last May, when the Royals were 21-22 and 1.5 games out of first. Then, they went to Boston, were no-hit, and proceeded to lose 10 games in a row to effectively end the season. Now, they've lost five of seven, and will be facing a Toronto team that is playing very good baseball. After that, they go to Minnesota, where the Royals have struggled in recent years. Perhaps years and years of losing have beaten the optimism out of me, but this feels like another long losing streak in the making. I think the Royals can hang around in the AL Central race if they can avoid these long losing streaks, but I'm afraid this offense is too inconsistent to keep those from happening. I can easily imagine Meche and Greinke losing a couple of games where they pitch well, and the rest of the rotation struggling. A week from today, we'll know a lot about whether this summer will be interesting or just another disappointment.

Week 2 In Review

2009-04-19T20:43:00.002-05:00

After Week 2, the Royals are 7-5. That's good for a first-place tie in the tightly-bunched AL Central, with the Tigers and White Sox also 7-5. The Twins are 7-7, putting them one game behind.

Game 7: Monday, April 13
KC 4, Cleveland 2

This wasn't Zack Greinke's best start, but he managed to work out of trouble when he needed to, and left the game after only five innings with a 4-0 lead. The bullpen was solid until the 9th, when Ron Mahay gave up two singles to start the inning. Trey Hillman made a very smart move, going to get Joakim Soria before things really got out of hand. A single and a wild pitch scored two runs, but then Soria did what he does best, getting the next three hitters to end the game. The offense put up three runs in the first inning, and added a Mike Jacobs homer (his first as a Royal) in the fourth.

Game 8: Tuesday, April 14
KC 9, Cleveland 3

For 7 innings, this was a nerve-wracking game. The Royals scored two runs in the 3rd, then gave up the lead in the 5th. John Buck led off the bottom of the 5th with a homer to untie the score, and the Royals added one more run that inning. The Indians scored one run in the 6th, and it looked like Soria would be needed to save this one too. Until the bottom of the 8th, when a Jacobs single made the score 5-3. After an Alex Gordon walk, John Buck slammed one into the left-field bullpen for a grand slam and the final margin.

Game 9: Wednesday, April 15
Cleveland 5, KC 4

Since he hadn't done something to make me scratch my head in like, four games, Hillman decided to field a lineup including Willie Bloomquist (hitting second), Tony Pena Jr., and Buck DHing and hitting cleanup. Remember, this was a day game before an off day and a flight to Dallas in the second week of the season, hardly a time when I would want to rest half the starting lineup. I suppose this was a defensive lineup for Sidney Ponson, who tends to get groundballs. Defensively, it worked pretty well. Ponson wasn't great, but he pitched six innings and only allowed two runs, which is an acceptable performance from a number four starter. Unfortunately, this lineup was next to useless offensively, getting only three hits off Indians starter Aaron Laffey, just recalled from AAA. They did manage to tie the game 2-2 in the 6th, thanks to four walks in the inning, including a bases-loaded pass to Gordon. Hillman continued his bad day by bringing in Kyle Farnsworth to pitch the 7th, and it only took three hitters for him to give the lead back. The Indians scored three runs in the 7th. The Royals tried to rally, scoring one run in the 7th to make the score 5-3. But Mark Teahen's baserunning blunder, when he was thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double, really killed the Royals in the 8th. Jacobs followed Teahen's gaffe with an absolute bomb that would have tied the score if Teahen had been on base. Still, there was plenty of blame to go around in this one. This was a frustrating loss, since Ponson pitched so well and the Royals had a chance for a sweep of a division opponent.

Off-day: Thursday, April 16
I throw this day in because it included a major development for the Royals. Late in the afternoon, the word came down: Alex Gordon would be having surgery on his hip and would likely miss two months or so. With Jose Guillen already on the DL and the team's inability to hit in Wednesday's game, things looked grim for this season's prospects. The loss of Gordon means Mark Teahen will move to third base, and we'll probably see a lot more of Alberto Callaspo at second base. Both of these are fine with me. Teahen may be more comfortable at third; even if his career offensive numbers show little difference between his time at third and other positions, perhaps that comfort level will help him concentrate on hitting. Callaspo is hitting a rather unsung .393 this season and has played better defense at second than anyone expected.

Game 10: Friday, April 17
KC 12, Texas 3

So with two of their best hitters on the DL, the Royals offense exploded for 12 runs and 19 hits. KC put up four runs in the 2nd inning, then teed off on the Rangers' bullpen in the late innings. Gil Meche was solid again, working out of a little trouble in the 1st and 3rd innings, then settling in to finish six scoreless innings, with six strikeouts, six hits and two walks. The Rangers scored their runs off Doug Waechter and Horacio Ramirez late in the game, and this one was never in doubt. Teahen was undoubtedly the offensive star, going 5-6 with three runs scored. He kicked off the offensive onslaught with a solo homer in the 2nd. Jacobs was 2-4 with four RBIs.

Game 11: Saturday, April 18
KC 2, Texas 0

Zack Greinke. Simply amazing. The Rangers had a runner at third with no one out in the 2nd inning and didn't score. They had a runner at third with one out in the 3rd, didn't score. Then Zack took over. The Rangers didn't have a runner reach second until the 9th inning. In the meantime, the Royals' offense managed to scratch out a couple of runs, the first on a Coco Crisp walk, two groundouts and a Billy Butler double. The second run came courtesy of a Miguel Olivo homer. Greinke made those two runs look like 20, at least until the 9th, when the Rangers mounted a two-out threat. With a runner at third, though, Greinke struck out Chris Davis looking to end the game. Greinke has now thrown 20 consecutive scoreless innings this year, and 34 if you go back to last season. He's also leading the league in strikeouts with 26. Right now, signing Greinke to a contract extension looks like the best move Dayton Moore has made as Royals general manager.

Game 12: Sunday, April 19
Texas 6, KC 5

Another series, another chance for a sweep, another game blown by Hillman and Farnsworth. This game started out looking like a Rangers rout, as Kyle Davies had no control in the first inning. Davies walked four hitters, but managed to escape with only a 2-0 deficit. The Royals battled back, both on offense and on the mound. Davies settled down, allowing only one more run as he worked through six innings. The offense got those two runs right back in the 3rd, then put up single runs in the next three innings, taking a 5-3 lead to the 7th. That's when things got dicey. Hillman brought in Juan Cruz to pitch and Tony Pena Jr. as a defensive replacement at shortstop. So far, so good. Cruz sandwiched two strikeouts around a walk. With lefty Josh Hamilton up, Hillman brought in Ron Mahay to pitch. This despite saying back on Opening Day that Mahay was not a left-handed specialist (his rationale for leaving Farnsworth in to face Jim Thome; the resulting 3-run bomb gave the White Sox a win). Mahay did get Hamilton, but surrendered a double to start the 8th. The next hitter, Hank Blalock, hit a grounder to first that Jacobs tried to field with his feet.

Now, first problem. Hillman had seemed to learn quickly that Jacobs is not a good defender. This was Jacobs' first start at first base since last Sunday. If he used a defensive replacement for Mike Aviles, why not use one for Jacobs? Billy Butler was DH in this game, so he was out. But what about Teahen? He could have been moved from third and Willie Bloomquist could have come in to play third. If Hillman had wanted, he could have moved Aviles to third instead of taking him out of the game. If you're going to emphasize defense with a two-run lead in the seventh, then don't leave a man widely considered the worst first baseman in the majors in there, even if it means Pena actually gets an at-bat.

Next came two plays Callaspo couldn't quite make: a slow grounder which only left him with a choice of going to second or first for an out (the first run of the inning scored, making it a 5-4 game) and a grounder up the middle he knocked down but couldn't field cleanly. On the first play, it looked to me like Callaspo fielded the ball after the runner was by him, eliminating the possiblity of a tag. I'm not sure he could have turned all the way around and thrown the man out, either. Callaspo got the out at first, but the tying run was in scoring position. That became large on the second play, when the runner (Blalock) kept running and scored when Callaspo couldn't get a good throw to home plate. It was a tough play, but Alberto had made some very nice plays the previous night. Still, if you're emphasizing defense in the late innings, where was Bloomquist? The Royals spent all offseason and spring training insisting that Willie Ballgame was a better defender than Callaspo.

And of course, the final terrible mistake came when Hillman called on Farnsworth to come into a tie game in the bottom of the 9th. Let's see, homer-prone pitcher facing a homer-hitting team in a homer-hitter's haven with the wind blowing out when one run means a loss. Of course this ended badly. Farnsworth threw two pitches, Michael Young blasted the second one out of the park, and the Royals lost. I'll never understand why Hillman didn't bring in Soria. Joakim had not pitched since last Monday, although he did warm up in the 9th Saturday night. I feel reasonably certain he could have pitched the 9th and 10th, if needed. The Rangers do not have a strong bullpen; why not give your team another chance to score in the 10th?

Bottom line: Hillman's refusal to make defensive substitutions for players who are not good defenders and his bizarre bullpen usage cost the Royals a game.

The Week Ahead

The Royals continue their road trip with three games in Cleveland Tuesday-Thursday before coming home for a weekend series with Detroit. With six divisional games, this week could be pivotal. It's hard to believe two series in April could be very important, but if this division is as tightly bunched as I think it will be (and has been so far), every divisional game matters. After the Royals handed the Indians a gift win last Wednesday, Cleveland has played better, although they did lose Sunday. The Royals will have their hands full with the Indians, especially since Hillman announced this weekend he intends to let Horacio Ramirez start Wednesday's game to give the rest of the rotation an extra day of rest. However, it looks like there is a good chance of rain in Cleveland Tuesday and Wednesday, so this may be a two-game series.

Curtain Risin' On A New Age

2009-04-13T21:50:00.001-05:00

(From "Groom's Still Waiting At The Altar," Biograph)

Royals Stadium was opened in 1973. Your humble correspondent came along in 1975. Royals Stadium and I first met in 1983. For 25 years, we got along great. Sure, there were some changes. The lovely plastic turf was ripped out years ago and replaced with real grass, an excellent upgrade. Ugly orange seats went out, more subdued blue ones came in. A Jumbotron was added, then the old scoreboard was replaced with a new hi-def video board. Through the years, the stadium became like Grandma's house: there might be a few places you couldn't go, but every inch of the rest of the place became familiar. Sure, there were some problems, some cosmetic deficiencies, some things that needed fixing up. But you always knew what to expect.

Until now.

After a 2008 season played in a construction zone, a full offseason of work, and a lot of excitement, the new stadium was revealed last Friday. Tickets were nearly impossible to get, especially for us poor folks, so The Amazing Michelle and I planned to go to the second home game of the season, last Saturday night. We packed up the digital camera and headed out. Frankly, with a pitching matchup of Horacio Ramirez vs. CC Sabathia, we were more excited to see the stadium than to see what we figured would be a rout by the Yankees. And the stadium did not disappoint.

Some changes are evident as you approach the stadium. A large glass facade stretches between the two circular ramps. The Royals' staff has their offices in this building. A large metal structure stretches along each side of the stadium, starting on the other side of each ramp. The three new structures really attract your attention, which has the pleasing result of de-emphasizing those ramps, which are not very attractive.

Inside, of course, the first thing you notice is the new, wider concourse. There are many more concession stands than before, and more bathrooms too. We arrived pretty early for Saturday's game, so even though the crowd was big, it may not have been the best test for the new concourses. I do know that big crowds before could make the interior of the stadium rather claustrophobic, and Saturday night it certainly felt roomier.

Once we got out to the seating bowl, we headed out to the new outfield area. The Royals Hall of Fame is behind the left field seats; unfortunately, it will not open until midseason. Now there are seats behind the bullpen, and of course the new seats in front of the left field fountains. We look forward to sitting there sometime this summer, as it seems probable those seats will be cooled by spray from the fountains. Of course, I imagine most Royals fans are feeling the same about those seats, so I think they'll be a tough ticket.

We proceeded around the outfield. It is now possible to walk all the way around the lower bowl. You can see Royals games from perspectives that were never available before. You can even stand behind the "batter's eye" in center field and look straight up at the massive scoreboard. You can even buy a beer back there! The eye consists of staggered sheets of green metal, so you can peek out between them and see part of the playing field.

We continued on, coming to the Party Porch in front of the right field fountains. The Party Porch has a corporate sponsor, but they're not paying me anything, so they don't get a mention here. Anyways, the Party Porch has two levels, with a bar running along the railing on each level. There are no seats, but you can stand here and watch the game, and have your food and drink in front of you on the bar. Or you can watch some of batting practice, like we did.

They built a bar and grill behind the Royals' bullpen in right field. We didn't go in, but it looked pretty nice. We climbed to the top of the stairs in right field, next to the restaurant, and headed back towards left field. The Royals built a kids' wonderland back there, with a mini golf course, a batting cage/speed pitch area, and the new Little K. Oh yeah, and a baseball-themed carousel.

We headed to our seats in the upper deck. The escalators which used to stick out from the stadium like sore thumbs have been neatly tucked away now. Almost too neatly, since we had to search for one for a few minutes. If you're into exercise, there are staircases at each end of the upper deck. But God created escalators so we could avoid exercise, so we eventually found one and rode it upstairs.

One thing I was really happy about was the increased number of concession stands in the upper deck, and the improved food choices. Before the renovations, if you wanted a specialty food, like Gates BBQ, you had to get it downstairs and lug it upstairs. Gates is gone (nooooooooooooo!) but now it appears the food choices are the same upstairs and down.

We settled into our seats and immediately noticed that the ballpark feels much more intimate than it used to. With a big crowd on hand, there were people all the way around the field. It feels like a real ballpark now, not a theater where there is a large stage in front and you never get to see behind it.

Here's a view from our seats:

It's funny, a couple of weeks ago, a friend of mine from college emailed me a panorama view of the stadium he took when we went to a game together in 1996. It was amazing to see how the place used to look, and to compare it to the new stadium.

Here's the 1996 stadium.

And here's how it looks today.

If you have a chance to see the new Kauffman Stadium, I urge you to take it. The old stadium was nice. The new improved one is gorgeous, and I know you'll enjoy it.

Week 1 In Review

2009-04-12T19:04:00.005-05:00

This is a new feature here at Tangled HQ: a few notes on each game from the previous week. I wish I had the time to blog about each game as it happened, but I suppose that's not feasible, since I do have a wife and a job. And I have to help maintain my mom's basement. Because that's where I live. Because I have a blog, see.

And now that joke is officially dead.

Anyways, after Week 1, the Royals are 3-3, tied for second in the AL Central, and a 1/2 game behind Detroit.

Game 1: Tuesday, April 7
Chicago 4, KC 2

The season opener was delayed one day by snow in Chicago. This gave Trey Hillman an extra day to figure out how to best use Kyle Farnsworth. Unfortunately, Trey needed a few more days, since he originally concluded that the Farns would be an ideal candidate to pitch the 8th inning with a 2-1 lead. Two singles and one Jim Thome blast later, the Royals had wasted a tremendous effort from Gil Meche, a long home run from Alex Gordon and were 0-1.

There isn't much more to say about Farnsworth and Hillman's decision to use him. It was obviously a poor decision for a couple of reasons (Farnsworth is homer-prone, Thome murders righties but is not as effective against lefties). And it is true that if the Royals had not left 11 runners on base, they probably would have won. But it was still a disappointing game, not least because it left the impression that Hillman was making the same dumb mistakes he made last year (not using Joakim Soria in the eighth inning, letting homer-prone relievers pitch in key spots).

Game 2: Wednesday, April 8
KC 2, Chicago 0

Thankfully, Hillman appeared to learn his lesson quickly this time. On this night, he made Juan Cruz is 7th and 8th inning guy, and Soria breezed through the 9th to preserve Zack Greinke's brilliant outing (6 IP, 7 Ks, 3 H). Once again, the offense did just enough for a win. This time, KC left 6 men on base, but Mike Aviles scored both runs on hits by Coco Crisp and Mark Teahen.

Game 3: Thursday, April 9
KC 2, Chicago 1

For the third straight game, the Royals only put up two runs. For the second straight game, a great game by a starting pitcher, a solid effort by a key short reliever and Soria made it stand up. The starting pitcher in question was Kyle Davies, who looked like he did last September. The reliever was Ron Mahay, who looked like as effective as he was before he was injured late last year. Crisp's two-run homer broke a scoreless tie in the 9th, and Soria struggled a little before closing the game out and giving KC a series win. With 11 men left on base, the Royals pushed their series total to a rather frustrating 28. As an added bonus, Jose Guillen injured himself running out a grounder in his last at-bat and was put on the disabled list on Friday. But the Royals headed home with the division lead.

Game 4: Friday, April 10
New York 4, KC 1

The Royals opened the new Kauffman Stadium with another disappointing offensive showing, managing only 4 hits and 1 walk against longtime nemesis Andy Pettitte. There were plenty of complaints beforehand about the Royals having Sidney Ponson in the rotation, but he actually wasn't awful in this game. He was hurt by some poor defense in the first inning, but got through 6 innings with the 4-1 deficit. As poorly as the Royals were hitting, though, this one was already over.

Game 5: Saturday, April 11
New York 6, KC 1

I'm not a big fan of Ponson, but the real starting rotation head-scratcher to me was the Royals' insistence on starting the season with Horacio Ramirez in there over Luke Hochevar, apparently just so they could say they had a left-handed starter instead of five righties. HoRam did little to dispel my doubts, getting torched for 8 hits and 6 runs in 4 1/3 innings. Once again, the defense did little to help the pitching. Willie Bloomquist made his first start in right field this year and got a poor jump on a two-run double in the first and then dove for and missed a soft fly ball near the right field line in the third. That resulted in a run-scoring triple. Also once again, the Royals offense took a night off, this time being completely shut down by CC Sabathia.

Game 6: Sunday, April 12
KC 6, New York 4

The Royals offense finally broke out of the doldrums in this come-from-behind, come-from-ahead, come-from-behind-again affair. Oddly enough, the offense was sparked by two guys who have had limited playing time, John Buck and Brayan Pena. Buck had a single, double and home run to drive in 3 runs; Pena doubled in the tying run in the 8th and then scored the go-ahead run on Alberto Callaspo's single. This came after Gil Meche tired in the 7th inning and gave up a 3-1 lead.

I don't know if this game will be a turning point for the offense or not. Yes, they scored 6 runs, but they only had 7 hits and 2 walks. On the bright side, the hits and walks were bunched together enough to be effective (in innings 1, 2, 5, 6 and 7, KC was 1-15 with 1 HBP and 0 walks; all the damage was done in innings 3, 4 and 8). Also on the bright side, there is no way the Royals will continue to hit .200 (the team batting average so far) all year. There will be more hits and runs. On the other hand, this team is still in last place in the AL in walks with 12. Until that improves, the Royals will struggle to score runs.

The Week Ahead

The Royals offense should get a shot at some lesser pitchers this week, including Carl Pavano and Scott Lewis of Cleveland on Tuesday and Wednesday, and Matt Harrison, Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla of Texas next weekend. While some of those are solid major league starters, none of them are quite as accomplished as Sabathia or Pettitte. This week could be a big help to the Royals, as I would say they are about evenly matched with Cleveland and Texas, especially with the Indians coming to town. As always, solid pitching is going to determine the Royals' chances of a winning week.

There'll Be A Time I Hear Tell

2009-04-05T18:04:00.008-05:00

...when all will be well
(From "Lord Protect My Child," The Bootleg Series Vol. 1-3)

Is this the year? That's the question, of course. Will the Royals rise up and surprise an unsuspecting nation by reaching the playoffs for the first time in 24 years? Can the team that once employed luminaries like Ken Harvey, Kerry Robinson and Mark Redman make true blue believers throughout the Midwest rush to sporting good stores for official AL Central Champions merchandise? Will October be the time when "all will be well"?

OK, probably not. I'm not even sure they can compile a .500 record, although I think they will be close.

I do know the Royals came closer to .500 last year than they have since the magical summer of 2003. The last time before that they won even a modest 75 games? 2000. So this is a roster full of players who haven't had much success at the major league level. Not that that means they can't win, but it does make me wonder how they would handle a pennant race.

It's getting in a pennant race that's the trick. As I've said before, it looks like the division is evenly matched enough that any of the five teams can win it. So the Royals may be in a pennant race by default.

I wrote yesterday I was predicting a 79-83 record for the Royals this year. That's four games better than last year. I've had trouble all spring reconciling my heart with my head in regards to this team. In fact:

My heart says that they can improve even more than that, since the roster seems to be upgraded offensively.
My head says that the Royals still lack players who get on base consistently, which is the basis for any good offense.
My heart says Alex Gordon and Billy Butler will have big years, while Jose Guillen is bound to improve his numbers, giving the Royals three big bats to go with Mike Jacobs.
My head says Jose Guillen is in decline and still swings at everything. And speaking of Jacobs, my head also says his lack of plate discipline will offset the 30 or so homers he should hit.
My heart says the Royals' impressive spring training offense is a sign of things to come.
My head says those numbers are a result of high altitudes and thin air.

OK, that's enough debate on the offense. What about pitching and defense?

My heart says Zack Greinke and Gil Meche will win 17-18 games each, and challenge for a Cy Young award.
My head says neither one has won more than 15 games in a season.
My heart says Kyle Davies will be the guy we saw in September (4-1, 2.27 ERA, 0.92 WHIP).
My head says Kyle Davies will be the guy we saw before September (5-6, 5.43 ERA, 1.89 WHIP).
My heart says the bullpen will make up for the losses of Ramon Ramirez and Leo Nunez with the help of Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz.
My head says Farnsworth was not good last year and Cruz is on his fifth team in seven years for a reason.
My heart says the outfield defense will be improved, and Mike Aviles and Alex Gordon are at least average defenders on the left side.
My head says Jose Guillen is still roaming right field, Coco Crisp has no arm, the Billy Butler/Mike Jacobs mix at first base is terrible, and the Royals have a third baseman playing second base. Oh, and John Buck can't throw anyone out and Miguel Olivo can't do any of the other stuff you want a catcher to do.

I suppose all of this internal debate is a sure sign the Royals will be around .500. But...if my heart is right more than my head, this could be an interesting season. We'll find out starting on Tuesday, now that the opener in Chicago has been postponed due to some more lovely spring weather.

A Few Thoughts on the Other Divisions

2009-04-05T16:39:00.003-05:00

I'm not going to give a detailed breakdown of each team like I did for the AL Central, but here are my predictions for the other divisions, along with some thoughts.

AL East

Boston
Tampa Bay
New York
Toronto
Baltimore

The Yankees in third? Well, call me crazy, but I'm suspicious of a team that depends on a 37-year-old catcher, a 34-year-old shortstop and a 35-year-old left fielder without much quality depth behind those guys. Also, it looks like they'll start a rookie in center field. Oh yeah, their best player is going to miss the first month of the season, at least. And a team that expects A.J. Burnett to stay healthy is a team that is going to be disappointed. The Yankees will still contend, but I think the Rays and Red Sox are just a little better.

AL West

Los Angeles
Oakland
Texas
Seattle

I really want to pick the Rangers to do better, but I just can't see it with that pitching staff. I really want to pick the Athletics to win the division, but I just can't see it with that pitching staff. So I'll stick with the Angels for this season.

NL East

Philadelphia
New York
Atlanta
Florida
Washington

Ho hum. Another year, another Mets team that can't quite win the division. At least they fixed up the bullpen, or tried to. The good news for the Phils and Mets is that the other three teams here are varying degrees of bad, so this is likely a two-team race.

NL Central

Chicago
Cincinnati
St. Louis
Milwaukee
Houston
Pittsburgh

The Cubs are pretty clear favorites here, but the Reds are most intriguing team to me. They might have more good young players than any team outside Tampa Bay. I doubt they can catch the Cubs, but I think they might be a little better than the Cardinals and Brewers. The bottom two teams in this division are pretty much trainwrecks.

NL West

Los Angeles
Arizona
San Francisco
Colorado
San Diego

A full season of Manny Ramirez ought to give the edge to the Dodgers here. I might be giving the Giants' offense too much credit, but their pitching looks pretty good to me. If they had any sort of hitting, they could be contenders.

Postseason

AL playoffs: Boston vs. Minnesota, Tampa Bay (wildcard) vs. Los Angeles
ALCS: Boston vs. Tampa Bay

NL playoffs: Philadelphia vs. Chicago, New York (wildcard) vs. Los Angeles
NLCS: Chicago vs. Los Angeles

World Series: Boston defeats Los Angeles, while sports fans everywhere pray they never hear about Manny Ramirez facing his old team again.

A Few Thoughts on the AL Central

2009-04-04T18:33:00.007-05:00

I thought I should throw a few predictions out there before Opening Day, which has really sneaked up on me. I blame the Kansas City weather, which as featured several cold mornings, plus several inches of snow a week ago today. It's been hard to get into a baseball frame of mind. At least today was nice and basebally, even though tomorrow brings another cold front. Grrr.

Anyway, as I've said before, I think the AL Central will be the most balanced division in baseball this season. I really believe anyone could finish first, even your Kansas City Royals. Also, I believe anyone can finish last (yes, even your Kansas City Royals). But here's my best guess at what will happen:

1. Minnesota, 87-75
2. Cleveland, 85-77
3. Kansas City, 79-83
4. Detroit, 76-86
5. Chicago, 75-87

Minnesota Twins

Last year: 88-75, 2nd place, lost one-game playoff for division title
Key losses: 3B Mike Lamb, SP Livan Hernandez, RP Dennys Reyes
Key additions: 3B Joe Crede

The Twins, God love 'em, just keep putting a solid team on the field and hoping for the best. Starting in 2001, they've been above .500 every year except a 79-83 hiccup in 2007. A presumably full season from Francisco Liriano (he had 14 starts last year as he recovered from Tommy John surgery) should help the Twins stay near the top of the Central this year, too. Signing Joe Crede to play third should help out the big guns in the lineup, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. As always, Joe Nathan is around to finish off every save situation. As a Royals fan, I watch the Twins with a mixture of admiration and envy, and I hope the Royals will be in the Twins' situation someday: a good team every year.

Cleveland Indians

Last year: 81-81, 3rd place
Key losses: 3B Casey Blake, SP CC Sabathia, SP Paul Byrd
Key additions: SP Carl Pavano, SP Joe Smith, 3B Mark DeRosa

The Indians seem to be the trendy pick to win the division, and I think they will certainly be good. I might even agree that on paper, they look like the best team in the division. But for some reason, I just can't pull the trigger on them. Wait, there is a reason: a rotation that, after 2008 AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee and 2007 sensation Fausto Carmona, is not very impressive. Even Carmona is a question mark after he struggled in 2008. And who knows if Lee can duplicate what he did last year (22-3, 2.54 ERA, 175 ERA+)? After that, it's Carl Pavano (ask any Yankee fan about this oft-injured pitcher) and Anthony Reyes (still waiting for him to show he can live up to the potential he showed in 2006). On the other hand, the offense should be good, with the division's best player in CF Grady Sizemore, a slugging 1B in Victor Martinez, and underrated RF Shin-Soo Choo. I just don't think they can do enough to overcome that rotation.

Kansas City Royals

Last year: 75-87, 4th place
Key losses: RP Ramon Ramirez, RP Leo Nunez, 2B Mark Grudzielanek
Key additions: CF Coco Crisp, 1B Mike Jacobs, RP Juan Cruz, RP Kyle Farnsworth, IF Willie Bloomquist

Progress continues. We hope. I fully admit that picking this team for third may be an optimistic homer move. It certainly looks like the offense has improved, at least as far as power goes. On-base percentage will still be a question mark. The pitching staff will need at least one starter to step up, and the bullpen will need some sorting out after it was shuffled in the offseason. I don't want to get too in-depth here, as I plan a post tomorrow with a more detailed look at the Royals' hopes this season. But I will say that I still believe the Royals are improving and at least I can say (with a straight face) they have a shot to contend this year.

Detroit Tigers

Last year: 74-88, 5th place
Key losses: C Ivan Rodriguez, DH Gary Sheffield, SS Edgar Renteria, RP Todd Jones
Key additions: C Gerald Laird, SS Adam Everett, RP Brandon Lyon

Remember about a year ago, when everyone thought the Tigers would score 1,000 runs in the 2008 season? Yeah. Didn't happen, although they did score plenty (821, 4th in the AL). So the Tigers decided to emphasize defense, picking up no-hit, all-glove shortstop Adam Everett and moving Carlos Guillen (Detroit's version of Mark Teahen, as he has gone from SS to 1B to 3B in his time with the Tigers) to left field. I guess the latter is a defensive move, since Guillen has played 2 whole games in the outfield in his 11-year career and Comerica Park is known for its spacious outfield. The defense needs to improve to help out the rotation, which is full of question marks. The biggest is, what the hell happened to Justin Verlander last year? His strikeouts dropped by 20 from 2007, while his walks went up by 20. His ERA went up by more than a full run. Any hope the Tigers have of winning the division rests on his return to form. After him, the Tigers will have Edwin Jackson, who won 14 games for Tampa last year, and promising youngsters Armando Galarraga and Rick Porcello (2007's top draft pick). But can they become big league pitchers fast enough to help Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman, if he is ever healthy again?

Chicago White Sox

Last year: 89-74, 1st place, won one-game playoff for division title
Key losses: SS Orlando Cabrera, 3B Joe Crede, OF Nick Swisher, SP Javier Vazquez
Key additions: IF Brent Lillibridge, SP Bartolo Colon

This may be a biased, anti-homer pick, as the White Sox are always the AL Central team I love to hate. But I'm putting them here because they are replacing 3/4 of their infield. Rookie Chris Getz takes over at second for Alexei Ramirez, who moves to shortstop to replace Orlando Cabrera, while Josh Fields gets to show us if he really can be a star at third base. I'm also leery of an offense depending on a 33-year-old Paul Konerko, a 35-year-old Jermaine Dye, and a 38-year-old Jim Thome. How long can they keep going? I'm also leery of a rotation depending on Bartolo Colon, who hasn't been good since 2005, and 38-year-old Jose Contreras. Besides, the White Sox went from 72 wins in 2007 to 89 last year; you would expect them to fall off some under any circumstances.

I Got The Fever Down In My Pockets

2009-03-25T19:30:00.002-05:00

(from "Absolutely Sweet Marie," Blonde on Blonde)

Keep your robins and crocuses (crocii?). For me, the surest sign of spring is walking into a grocery store and seeing a box of Official Royals Pocket Schedules. It's one of my favorite rituals: folding the schedule just so, checking out the promotions, seeing who the Royals play on my birthday, picking out which games I'd like to see.

The Amazing Michelle likes to tease me about my Monkish personality (the TV show, not men who have taken a vow of silence), and I must confess, the look of a pocket schedule is ideal for a perfectionist like me. A rectangle for each month, divided into perfect little squares. Opponents and times centered perfectly.

And of course, looking at all those games at once is a great vehicle for the imagination. Will those games in September mean something? Can the Royals get off to a 2003-like start? I've been looking at my pocket schedule for a couple of weeks now and have come to some conclusions.

With a 162-game season, complaints about the schedule are not nearly as prevalent as they might be in, say, the NFL. Playing everyone multiple times tends to even out the effects of luck. Still, I like that the Royals get to play the Yankees early, while A-Rod is still hurt and guys like CC Sabathia may still be rounding (Ha!) into shape. I like that the Royals' road games in July and August look to be almost exclusively in non-heatstroke-inducing places like Detroit, Boston and Seattle. Only a four-game series in Baltimore, where weather.com says the average high temperature is 91° on the days in question, could be bad. I don't know of any sabrmetric breakdown of gametime temperatures affecting team performance, but perhaps it will keep the team fresher for the stretch run. Hey, if the division race is going to be as close as most think, any advantage could help.

I think the schedule sets up pretty well for the Royals. Luckily, I think they are as good or almost as good as the rest of the AL Central, so I believe there aren't too many stretches where they will be playing teams who are obviously better. As any Royals fan knows, long losing streaks have been a KC specialty throughout this decade. It only takes one of those double-digit streaks to remove a team from contention, even in a division where 88 wins might be enough for a title. Just look at last year, when a 12-game slide in late May took the team from 1.5 games out to 9 games out.

Of course, losing streaks are more a function of how you play than who you play, but obviously a road trip to Boston, New York and Tampa Bay is going to be tougher than one to Detroit, Minnesota and Chicago, even though those are good teams too. I see two stretches that worry me: June 2-11 (three games each at Tampa Bay, Toronto and Cleveland) and July 27-August 3 (four-game series in Baltimore and Tampa Bay). I also see two stretches that intrigue me: August 11-19 (three-game series in Minnesota, Detroit and Chicago) and September 11-20 (three-game series in Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago). These last two groups could be pivotal in a close race. The first two worry me because the Royals have really struggled in recent years against Baltimore and Tampa Bay, and a four-game series in Toronto was the meat of that 12-game skid last year. A big key for the Royals this year will be avoiding long losing streaks, and I think these are the potential trouble spots.

On the other hand, one area where the Royals have done well in recent years is interleague play. In this regard, I think the Royals have a chance to succeed again. KC gets Cincinnati, Arizona and St. Louis at home and goes to St. Louis, Houston and Pittsburgh. So they get the (presumably) tougher teams at home. They may not be 13-5 against the NL like in 2008, but they should be able to pick up several interleague wins in 2009.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go look for my pocket schedules from previous seasons. I didn't know this, but I should have realized it: there are people out there who collect these. And plenty of eBay auctions, although it doesn't look like anyone's getting rich off them. But hey, if someone is willing to bid on a 2009 Royals pocket schedule you can pick up for free at Hy-Vee, maybe it's time to dig through the basement in search of treasure.

Summer Days

2009-03-18T21:35:00.008-05:00

...summer nights are gone.
(From "Summer Days," Love and Theft)

The Royals released Jimmy Gobble today. And as I type this, I'm watching the Royals' spring training game against the Mariners and Mike Sweeney.

It's hard to believe the magical, bittersweet 2003 season was six years ago. These two players had such a big role in the most enjoyable year I've had as a sports fan*, the juxtaposition has made me nostalgic.

*If I may indulge in a Pozterisk, 2003 featured the KU basketball team going to a second straight Final Four, the KU football team going to a bowl game for the first time in 11 years (we'll just ignore The Philip Rivers Show in the Tangerine Bowl, the Chiefs going 13-3 and winning the AFC West (we'll just ignore the playoff loss). With the Royals starting off 16-3 and staying in contention all summer, it was an all-around great sports year.

It's funny how fast things can change. The only current Royal who played for KC in 2003 is David DeJesus, who only played in 12 games (10 plate appearances) as a September call-up. And in 2003, it looked like Mike Sweeney would be a Royals star for years to come.

If you don't know, the Royals signed Sweeney to a unique contract extension after the 2001 season. If KC could finish with a winning record in 2002 or 2003, a clause would kick in to make him a Royal at $11 million per year through 2007. The idea was to give Sweeney an assurance that the Royals would try to build a winning team around him and to keep KC's best hitter under team control at a price below market value for what he had done in say, 2000 (.333/.407/.523, 29 HR, 144 RBI in 159 games). At the time, it seemed like a great deal for the Royals and their fans. Johnny Damon didn't want to stay in KC, Carlos Beltran was making it clear he didn't want to stay, Jermaine Dye didn't seem excited about staying, but here was Sweeney making a statement that he was willing to stay.

Well, it's funny how things turn out. The Royals of course posted a winning record in 2003, but Sweeney got hurt that year. And the next year. And then the team went in the crapper, losing 310 games from 2004-2006. As the highest-paid Royal, and as a player who couldn't stay healthy, Sweeney became the fall guy for many fans. I never understood this notion, as even with "2000 Mike Sweeney" in the lineup, the Royals still would have stunk out loud. And most of the people bashing him and the Royals for that contract extension were creating a little revisionist history. No one knew or could have known that Sweeney would have so many injuries, or that the Royals would refuse to spend any extra money to take some of the pressure off Sweeney.

When Sweeney's contract was up, the Royals showed little interest in bringing him back. It was the right move, as he struggled with injuries again last year, plus the Royals already had a surplus of 1B/Dh types who needed a shot at playing time. But as a player who helped make the Royals just a little respectable and as a class act off the field, Sweeney will always have a special place in my heart.

As for Gobble, I don't want to get too wrapped up in the past. He was terrible last year, especially against right-handers. Even though he was effective against lefties, I'm not sure the Royals have the luxury or even the need to carry a left-handed specialist. But Gobble will always have my appreciation for the way he stepped into the rotation in 2003 and helped the Royals stay in the race.

You have to remember, the 2003 Royals had a good offense, but a patchwork pitching staff. On a team that won 83 games, only one pitcher amassed 10 wins. That was Darrell May, whose obscurity should tell you a lot about the Royals that season. This was a team that pulled Jose Lima off an independent minor league team and threw him in the rotation (it worked out, somewhat, as he went 8-3 despite an unsightly 4.93 ERA). May had 32 starts, but no one else even reached 20.

When Lima had a groin strain at the end of July, the Royals called up Gobble and started him against Tampa Bay, a team which always seemed to play well against the Royals. With a one-game lead over the White Sox on August 3, the Royals turned their hopes over to a skinny rookie lefty.

In one of the more memorable (to me, anyways) moments of that whole crazy season, Gobble proceeded to shut out the Devil Rays for 6 innings. I was on vacation in the Black Hills of South Dakota, frantically trying to get a radio signal from one of the few Royals radio network stations
in the area. What I heard was amazing. Gobble worked out of trouble in the third inning and again in the fifth, and made the only two runs KC was able to muster stand up.

Gobble made eight starts the rest of the season, with mixed results. But he did have four straight solid starts to finish the year. Of course, it wasn't enough as the Twins and White Sox both overtook the Royals. But for one day, Gobble was a Royal hero.

I don't know if 2009 will become only the second Royals pennant race of my adult life. I hope so, but I do have some doubts. If it does, though, I look forward to finding out who might play that one-time Royal hero role, as well as who might be leading the charge.

May You Build A Ladder To The Stars

2009-03-08T18:11:00.007-05:00

...And climb on every rung.
(From "Forever Young," Planet Waves)

The Star had a couple of interesting stories this morning on two of the biggest keys to the Royals' season: Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. As you would expect from spring training stories, they are upbeat and hopeful. As you would expect from a baseball fan, I usually let these stories get me a little too excited for the upcoming season. Spring training is notorious for the stories about how Player X is in the best shape of his life or Player Y is going to have a breakout season and as a result Team Z has started printing playoff tickets.

If the Royals hope to be Team Z in 2009, there needs to be some truth in these stories. KC has a chance to contend, even if it is not a great chance. In the last post I looked at the kind of offensive output the Royals could expect from various lineups this year. Using last year's numbers for the lineup I expect, the Royals projected to score 4.96 runs per game, while a slightly rearranged version projected to score 5.06. But as the articles linked above point out, one of the best-kept secrets of the 2008 season was the second half stats Gordon and Butler compiled.

Although he missed a few weeks with an injury, Gordon increased his numbers from .253/.334/.407 to .277/.392/.496. Even more promising, his K/BB ratio went from 89/39 to 31/27.

Butler's numbers also improved dramatically. After a first half of the season that was so difficult (.249/.310/.330, 2 HR, 19 RBI) he was sent to Omaha, Butler put up a .305/.341/.476 line, with 9 HR and 36 RBI.

If you put Butler's and Gordon's second-half numbers into the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool, you get a lineup that scores 5.194 runs per game (I used a lineup of DeJesus, Aviles, Gordon, Jacobs, Butler, Guillen, Olivo, Callaspo and Crisp). Over a full season, that is 32 runs better than the lineup I used before. The stats people who are way smarter than I am say an improvement of 10 runs equals a win, so that's 3 more wins if Gordon and Butler can produce like they did after the All-Star Break over a full season. In a division that looks to be a tight 5-way race, 3 wins could be huge.

It seems like we Royals fans have been waiting forever for Gordon and Butler to develop into the mashers we were promised. It's hard to remember they are 25 and 22 (turning 23 in April), respectively. They still should have years of improvement ahead of them. If that light goes on over one or both of their heads this spring, it could be a most interesting summer.

New Morning, New Morning

2009-03-01T15:53:00.007-06:00

...on this new morning with you.
(From "New Morning," New Morning)

Well, I didn't intend to take a whole month off, but I ended up doing so. Of course, nothing much was happening in Royal land, and while the start of spring training is exciting to baseball geeks like me, it's not usually filled with newsworthy happenings. But now the calendar has turned to March, and things are starting to get interesting. A few thoughts on spring training so far...

I was hoping to post something once the Royals signed Orlando Hudson, but it was such a downer when he ended up with the Dodgers, I couldn't bring myself to write about it. He would have solved the Royals' second base problem, which I believe is the team's biggest concern right now. I don't know if the Mark Teahen Second Base Experiment is over, but the early returns were not encouraging. Two errors in his first game at second, plus another double play he could have turned but didn't. And now he leaves for the World Baseball Classic (Go Team Canada, eh!), where he will probably play third base. The Royals are obviously not sold on Alberto Callaspo, since they never would have tried Teahen at second if they thought they had a starter there. My biggest fear is that Willie Bloomquist's grit and hustle will so impress Trey Hillman that "Bloomie" will be run out there 120 times at 2B this year, and his .234 average won't get him out of the lineup. The Royals are not good enough as a team offensively to be below-average anywhere on the field. You'd think the experience of having Tony Pena Jr. sinking the Royals' offense last year would have taught Hillman something. I don't expect Bloomquist to be TPJ bad, but he will in all likelihood be a drag on KC's offense.
Speaking of offense, I spent some time recently playing with the Lineup Analysis tool at baseballmusings.com (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py). Using last year's numbers and putting Teahen at 2B, the site predicted this lineup would score 4.98 runs/game: DeJesus, Aviles, Butler, Jacobs, Gordon, Olivo, Guillen, Teahen, Crisp. Since the AL average was 4.78 R/G last year, that's a good sign. It has this lineup scoring 5.06 R/G: DeJesus, Aviles, Crisp, Jacobs, Gordon, Olivo, Guillen, Butler, Bloomquist. Now, you and I both know that a lineup with Jose Guillen batting seventh is a lineup that's going to create an angry, sulking Jose Guillen. Also, Trey Hillman is highly unlikely to bat Butler eighth or Gordon fifth. So I plugged in what I think will be the lineup: Crisp, Aviles, DeJesus, Guillen, Jacobs, Gordon, Butler, Olivo, Bloomquist. That gives the Royals 4.96 R/G.
That makes me cautiously optimistic for 2009. Most projections I've seen have the Royals winning about 75 games again. But they also show the AL Central to be a tightly bunched division. Right now, I'd say every team can make a case for why they can win it, even the Royals. Here's my case: that 4.96 R/G on offense and the fact the Royals allowed 4.82 R/G last year. I think Brian Bannister will bounce back from his nightmarish 2008 and that should make KC's pitching a bit better. Say that offensive projection holds up (sure, some of those players' numbers will go down, but younger players like Gordon and Butler should improve). Then say KC's runs allowed goes down to 4.75 per game. That translates to 803 runs scored for the season against 770 allowed. Using the Bill James pythagorean winning percentage, that projects to an 84-78 record. I don't think the Royals will be that good, but the difference between 78-84 and 84-78 is slim. It's not hard to believe that if Gordon and/or Butler come into their own, this could be an interesting summer. Remember, the Royals aren't chasing 95-win juggernauts like Boston and Tampa Bay.
I like the Juan Cruz signing. A lot. A guy who throws hard, gets strikeouts and doesn't give up homers. That last part is what distinguishes him from Kyle Farnsworth, who hopefully now will be pitching 6th or 7th innings, not the 8th. This is the kind of move Dayton Moore has excelled at since becoming GM: finding the power arm for the bullpen and signing them to a relatively inexpensive contract. Suddenly a bullpen of Doug Waechter, Farnsworth, Cruz, Ron Mahay, Jimmy Gobble and Joakim Soria looks pretty good. Waechter and the Farns can cover the middle innings, Gobble can face lefties in key spots (and ONLY lefties), Mahay can work the 7th, Cruz the 8th and Soria can slam the door in the 9th.
One final thing: this story in today's Star about a survey saying the Royals rank dead last among MLB teams in popularity in their market. I have an opinion on this survey: pure crap. A sample size of 200? Seems rather small to me, although I admittedly am not a marketing person. I really question the survey since it ranks the Chiefs 25th of 32 NFL teams. Despite two solid years of crappy football, the Chiefs still draw a lot of interest (check out their TV ratings sometime). And I believe KC still cares a lot about the Royals. I was around in 2003 when the team's hot start led to a summer-long pennant race. People talked about them all summer. I am waiting and hoping for another summer like that soon.

I'm Richer By Far

2009-01-26T16:38:00.004-06:00

...with a satisfied mind.
(From "A Satisfied Mind," Saved)

This is a happy day, Royals fans! Zack Greinke has signed a contract extension through 2012. As far as I'm concerned, this is the best move Dayton Moore has made as GM. The Star reports Greinke will receive $38 million over the four years, but the contract is backloaded; $27 million of that will be due in 2011 and 2012.

This is such a refreshing change for Royals fans; our team has found a talented youngster and will keep him two years beyond when he would have been a free agent.

So rejoice, KC! And now it's time to embrace Greinke; he wanted to stay here, and he's ours.

Don't You Try And Move Me

2009-01-25T20:55:00.004-06:00

...you're just gonna lose.
(From "Crash On The Levee (Down In The Flood)," Bob Dylan's Greatest Hits, Vol. 2)

Apparently the Royals are tinkering with the idea of moving Mark Teahen to second base. I can certainly see the rationale behind this. Two of the three outfield spots are locked up, with Coco Crisp in center and David DeJesus in left. And the Royals have collected so many 1B/DH types that, to get his bat in the lineup and justify his excessive contract, Jose Guillen has to play right, defense and on-base percentage be damned. And Teahen has shown defensive versatility and the willingness to play good soldier as he has bounced from third base to right field to left field to first base to center field without complaint (in the linked article, he says he is willing to try playing at second if it will get him in the lineup).

While I'm glad the Royals are thinking outside the box, I'm not sure this is their best move. First, I thought the recent signing of Willie Bloomquist, plus the roster presence of Alberto Callaspo, meant the Royals were going to give one of them the second base job (for the purposes of this discussion, I'm giving Callaspo the job now). If they put Teahen at second, the Bloomquist signing really seems useless (although he would still be a better backup option at shortstop than Callaspo or Tony Pena Jr.). Second, putting a guy at a premium defensive position when he has not played there in roughly 10 years (freshman year of college, according to the Star) strikes me as a bad idea. Finally, I'm not convinced that Teahen is an offensive upgrade from Callaspo.

Callaspo's offense was pretty much unnoticed last year. He only played 74 games, and missed two months in the middle of the season. He normally hit at the bottom of the lineup, so he was rarely in the offensive mix. He had little power (8 doubles, 3 triples and no home runs in at-bats) and only had 2 stolen bases. Still, he did hit .305, with an OBP of .361, which by Royals standards is tremendous. And he ended up with an OPS+ of 98, which isn't good but also isn't terrible (a 100 OPS+ is a league-average player).

On defense, Callaspo didn't make anybody forget Frank White, but he also played 365 innings without an error. So he wasn't a butcher either. And, as mentioned, second base is an important defensive position, where you would prefer someone who is used to playing there.

I'm sure the Royals are looking at the fact Teahen hit 15 homers last year, while the Royals' second basemen combined for 3 (all from Mark Grudzielanek). But power seems to be Teahen's only advantage over Callaspo. Granted, for a team that finished 12th in a 14-team league in runs, that's an important consideration. But I think the Royals need more on-base percentage in the lineup, especially if they insist on having OBP-challenged players like Guillen, Miguel Olivo and Mike Jacobs in there. Callaspo's OBP was nearly 50 points higher than Teahen's (.361 to .313).

The Royals may be considering this move in case Callaspo has more off-field issues. Those two months he missed followed his arrest for drunk driving and were presumably time he spent in rehab. In that case, getting Teahen some experience at second is a good idea. If you're giving me a choice between Bloomquist and Teahen at second base, I will certainly take Teahen. True, Bloomquist had a higher OBP, but he has absolutely no power and that OBP last year was some 50 points higher than his previous best, which makes it look like a fluke. His career OBP is lower than Teahen's.

Since the Royals gave up a pitching prospect (Billy Buckner) for Callaspo, I wish they would at least give him a chance to see what he can do. I also think they have jerked Teahen around enough and wish they would let him settle on a spot--it might improve his offense. And I also wish the Royals would have thought of this before they spent any money on Bloomquist.

The Final Repudiation of Carl Peterson

2009-01-18T17:56:00.003-06:00

The Arizona Cardinals are going to the Super Bowl. The Arizona Freakin' Cardinals are going to the Super Bowl.

Why bring this up on a (mostly) baseball blog? And why drag Carl Peterson into it? Well, it's my blog, and while I am happy for any Cardinal fans out there, it angers me as a Chiefs fan that my team has been unable to reach a Super Bowl, which is apparently so easy a Cardinal can do it.

When Peterson took over the Chiefs after the 1988 season, the NFL had 28 teams. Now there are 32; two of the new teams have been to a Super Bowl in the last 20 years (this counts Baltimore as a new team, since the new version of the Cleveland Browns was granted the rights to all of Browns history. It may not be the most sensible decision, but that's how the NFL looks at it). And of those 28 teams, 20 have gone to the big game at least once in those 20 years. The Un-Elite Eight: Cincinnati (the Bengals did make the Super Bowl following the 1988 season), Cleveland, Detroit, Miami, Minnesota, New Orleans, and the New York Jets.

And the Chiefs.

Even worse, here are some teams who joined the Chiefs at the bottom of the 1988 standings: Atlanta (5-11 that year, lost SB XXXIII), Dallas (3-13, won 3 titles in the 90s), Green Bay (4-12, won SB XXXI, lost SB XXXII), San Diego (6-10, lost SB XXIX) and Tampa Bay (5-11, won SB XXXVII). And Detroit, proving some things never change.

It may not be fair to blame Carl Peterson for all of this. But he was the one constant in the Chiefs organization through the entire 20-year period. Players changed, coaches changed, even the owner changed. Scott Pioli may prove to be a terrible hire as new GM (I don't think this will be the case, though). But it will be easy for him to surpass Peterson's record. Just get to one Super Bowl, and he will look much better than his predecessor.

New Look!

2009-01-18T11:31:00.002-06:00

As you can see, the boring old blog look has been replaced with something new. Please let me know what you think!

In other news, spring training is a month away! And Royals fans have a reason to watch this spring's World Baseball Classic. Actually, three reasons, as the Star reports, Mike Aviles, Joakim Soria and Mark Teahen will play for Puerto Rico, Mexico and Canada, respectively. And Miguel Olivo may play for the Dominican Republic. So that's cool. I'm glad none of the Royals' starting pitchers are going to be there; I worry about those guys throwing too many pitches in competitive games so early in the spring, even if there is a pitch count limit in the WBC. But it probably won't hurt Soria; he won't throw many pitches in any one outing. And playing competitive games should help Aviles and Teahen get ready for the season more than regular spring training games would.

Let's hope this next month hurries along; I'm ready for some baseball!

Too Much Of Nothing

2009-01-10T16:09:00.006-06:00

...can make a man feel ill at ease.
(From "Too Much Of Nothing," The Basement Tapes)

This is what it's like to be a Royals fan. For years, you put up with the worst baseball imaginable from a major-league franchise. All the while, you curse the big payroll teams for simply buying the most expensive players and never going through the pain of a losing season, but you do have to acknowledge that your team is run by clueless morons.

Then one day, new leadership comes in. Finally, the team looks like it has a plan. The payroll increases, the spending on scouting and draft picks increases, some of the promising young players are signed to longer deals. The team rips through the final month of the season with an 18-8 record, climbing out of last place for the first time in 5 years. As the offseason starts, the team has a wishlist of free agents that are actually intriguing. You start to dream a little: "Rafael Furcal would look great in blue! He can lead off, he walks and steals bases. And we'd be moving a shortstop to play second--what a great defense we will have!" Or maybe: "Well, Furcal might be a little expensive, but Orlando Hudson is a good solid second baseman. And Mike Aviles looked good at shortstop last year, we don't have to move him to second." Or even: "Boy, Pat Burrell would fix up this offense! And we'd never have to watch Jose Guillen play outfield again!"

But, of course, reality sets in. The Yankees spend roughly $87 billion on players. And after trading for a first baseman when they already have three players at that spot, and trading for another outfielder, and worst of all, signing an overpriced mediocre reliever, the Royals decide they don't have any money left. So instead of getting Furcal or Hudson or someone else with above-average ability to play second or short, the Royals come up with Plan B.

Willie Bloomquist.

Perhaps that was really Plan Q.

I just can't get excited about this signing. At least it's only $1.5 million a year, but still...when fans are expecting a Rafael Furcal or an Orlando Hudson and instead get the second coming of Keith Miller (seriously, check baseball-reference's similar batters), it's rather frustrating. Somehow, a competition for the starting second base job between Alberto Callaspo and Bloomquist just isn't that exciting.

To be fair, there are some good things about Bloomquist. He's cheap, as I mentioned. He can play any spot on the field (he has played everywhere except pitcher and catcher in his career). His SB/CS ratio is very good: 71/16. His addition likely is officially the end of Tony Pena Jr.'s time in KC. He did post an OBP of .377 last year, a slight upgrade from Pena's .189 mark. He's never played more than 102 games in a season, so his legs should be fresher than most guys' when the heat of August rolls around. And, much to The Amazing Michelle's chagrin, I can now make the same stupid Army of Darkness "This is my...BLOOMQUIST!" joke I have loved so much since he joined the league, even though it's really not very funny. Hey, I'm not a writer for 30 Rock, what do you want from me?

(Side note: Tina Fey, if you're reading this, I would LOVE to be a writer for 30 Rock. Call me!)

Where was I? Oh yeah, trying to convince myself to be excited about the 2009 season. One thing I know after all these years of being a Royals fan, once spring training starts in a few weeks, it will be a lot easier to get excited. But for now, this has been a disappointing offseason. Which is all part of being a Royals fan.

A Brief Chiefs Interlude

2008-12-13T11:40:00.003-06:00

OK, I have to say something here about the Chiefs. Obviously, this season has been pretty horrible, and talk is already moving to next April's draft and what direction the Chiefs should take. Of course, the big question is whether the Chiefs should take a quarterback with their almost-certain top five pick, or look at another position.

If you had asked me in October, I would have said PLEASE take a QB. Brodie Croyle was handed the starting job despite last year's abundant evidence that he a) could not stay healthy and b) sucked. When the inevitable happened and he was knocked out for the 2008 season, Damon Huard came on and showed that he was perhaps washed-up. With nowhere else to turn, KC offensive coordinator Chan Gailey tweaked the offense, making it into more of a college-style spread offense. This was a smart move and allowed last-man-standing QB Tyler Thigpen, who looked absolutely horrible early in the season, to be more comfortable in the offense. The transformation of the Chiefs' offense from early September until now has been remarkable.

KC's offense first six games: 75 points, 1,544 yards, 84 first downs, 10 turnovers.
KC's offense next seven games: 137 points (the defense has scored 21), 2,406 yards, 130 first downs, 8 turnovers (five of those were in one game).
Thigpen's stats for the last seven games: 134 completions in 225 attempts (59.5%), 1,534 yards, 12 TDs, 4 INTs, and 224 rushing yards.

Now, the Chiefs still need help on offense. Even if you extrapolate the offense of the last seven games to 13 games, the numbers are still roughly league average:

KC extrapolated: 254 points, 4,468 yards, 241 first downs, 15 turnovers.
League average: 290 points, 4,247 yards, 240 first downs, 21 turnovers.

Of course, with a young QB running it, you would expect the offense to get better over the next few years. Even better, the Chiefs have a collection of young talent on offense to grow with Thigpen--the Thigpen to Dwayne Bowe connection should only get better, given a chance to keep playing together. Still, KC could use a better offensive line, another wide receiver or two, and maybe even another running back.

But the Chiefs real problem is on defense. KC is giving up 397.3 yards per game. That's 32nd, last, worst, whatever you want to say, in the NFL. Worse than the winless Detroit Lions. Worse than the miserable St. Louis Rams and Seattle Seahawks. They are next to last in rushing yards allowed and all the way up to 29th in pass yards allowed. Finally, they are 30th in points allowed. And of course, there is the oft-discussed topic that the Chiefs have 6 sacks for the year, when the NFL record low for a 16 game season is 13.

Now, when you're 2-11, you obviously need help everywhere. The Chiefs might be best served to pick whoever they feel is the best player, regardless of position, when their turn comes. But they should definitely emphasize defense over offense in the draft. A pass rusher or a stud linebacker would go a long ways to improving the defense for 2009. Despite the lousy pass defense numbers, I think rookie cornerbacks Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr have played decently this year. Most of the problem is up front and the complete and utter lack of a pass rush. And that is KC's most pressing need.